2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[pcbjr]

^^^

Of course ... Gator football season just gets underway ... again ...

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm.. off of Guinea... posting here first.. hard angle to view.. Sure has a lot of vorticity going on.. much more than normal for this type of wave at this latitude..

[AutoPenalti]

The global models are starting to latch onto a wave over West Africa that will make the plunge in 3-4 days. For example the FV3 GFS has a Tropical Storm impacting the Cape Verde islands day 5:

https://s8.postimg.cc/4iyx1cxt1/fv3p_ms ... atl_21.png

It strengthens (yes strengthens in the MDR) through day 7:

https://s8.postimg.cc/q6nvbmqfp/fv3p_ms ... atl_30.png

12Z GEFS:

https://s8.postimg.cc/anv0s84xx/gfs-eme ... atl_25.png

Reminds me of a certain TC that initialized under the same steering pattern..

[SoupBone]

The global models are starting to latch onto a wave over West Africa that will make the plunge in 3-4 days. For example the FV3 GFS has a Tropical Storm impacting the Cape Verde

Reminds me of a certain TC that initialized under the same steering pattern..

???

[CyclonicFury]

12z ECMWF appears to develop a closed low south of Cabo Verde in 144 hours. It appears we may have a consensus developing.

[gatorcane]

12z ECMWF appears to develop a closed low south of Cabo Verde in 144 hours. It appears we may have a consensus developing.

[Aric Dunn]

Wider view... the circulation appears well defined and is not broad as they normally are with these large waves..



Euro in 24hours.. looks interesting.



CMC in 30 hours

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF shows a weak-TS by the CV islands @ 168 hours.

[HurricaneFan]

Is that Tropical Wave in the Visible supposed to be the same Wave the models have south of the Cape Vado Islands by day 5 or 6?
If so, it seems like it is nearly off the Coast of Africa already.Will it move so slowly?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF showing a string of weaker systems going across the MDR, but with stout ridging over Western Atlantic. These systems could be a threat closer to land.

[SFLcane]

Ah developing that Far East if it does it’s more then likely a show in to recurve harmlessly out to sea. We shall see

[gatorcane]

A busy Euro day 10:

[AutoPenalti]

The global models are starting to latch onto a wave over West Africa that will make the plunge in 3-4 days. For example the FV3 GFS has a Tropical Storm impacting the Cape Verde

Reminds me of a certain TC that initialized under the same steering pattern..

???

IIRC, Irma formed under the same steering pattern.

[SoupBone]

A busy Euro day 10:

The good thing about this, if it verifies, is that the Bermuda High is displaced to the northeast, allowing for recurves. Let's hope that holds.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Question on the 12z ECMWF model run. Why does the wave in the GOM around hours 144-216 not develop more than it does? Is it shear? That would seem to be the only limiting factor if it is there.

[CyclonicFury]

hmmm.. off of Guinea... posting here first.. hard angle to view.. Sure has a lot of vorticity going on.. much more than normal for this type of wave at this latitude..

That appears to be the wave the Euro develops in the subtropics late in the run.

[Hurricaneman]

hmmm.. off of Guinea... posting here first.. hard angle to view.. Sure has a lot of vorticity going on.. much more than normal for this type of wave at this latitude..

That appears to be the wave the Euro develops in the subtropics late in the run.

Funny what the Euro does with that wave, a low develops and heads out north while the wave continues west, if true you could get more than one development from this wave as the one that forms in the subtropics is close to being a west heading tropical storm or hurricane if any delay in development

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
ECMWF has multiple weak tropical systems by next Wednesday ...
Wouldn't be surprised to see 2 or 3 depressions heading through the first week of September -- but might not amount to much

[SoupBone]

Question on the 12z ECMWF model run. Why does the wave in the GOM around hours 144-216 not develop more than it does? Is it shear? That would seem to be the only limiting factor if it is there.

I don't know about the model itself, but shear has been a player in that area all summer, though it's fluctuated a good bit back and forth.

[srainhoutx]

Question on the 12z ECMWF model run. Why does the wave in the GOM around hours 144-216 not develop more than it does? Is it shear? That would seem to be the only limiting factor if it is there.

I don't know about the model itself, but shear has been a player in that area all summer, though it's fluctuated a good bit back and forth.

There is a TUTT moving across the Central Gulf today which is enhancing shear in the NW Gulf, but that will abate as the TUTT moves into Mexico in a day or so.