2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

The SAL will eventually subside and the hurricanes will come but the early indicators to me continue to suggest a weaker Bermuda High than seen in 2016-2017 allowing storms to potentially recurve well east of the US and potentially the islands. In years past July featured strong ridging especially 2016-2017. All bets are off though for Western Caribbean or storms that form in the Gulf.

Gatorcane were are you getting such data? Just going by the euro precipitation it’s forecasting a stronger then normal high. Infact this current pattern if it sticks which is always a timing issue is very dangerous.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 76832?s=21

[toad strangler]

The SAL will eventually subside and the hurricanes will come but the early indicators to me continue to suggest a weaker Bermuda High than seen in 2016-2017 allowing storms to potentially recurve well east of the US and potentially the islands. In years past July featured strong ridging especially 2016-2017. All bets are off though for Western Caribbean or storms that form in the Gulf.

Gatorcane were are you getting such data? Just going by the euro precipitation it’s forecasting a stronger then normal high. Infact this current pattern if it sticks which is always a timing issue is very dangerous.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 76832?s=21

I don't have much faith in longer/medium range 500mb setups at all. gator mentioned taking indicators as a grain of salt the other day which I largely disagree with but do make an exception when it comes to this. I take 500mb progs with a grain of salt past 5 days. Just the slightest differences can mean huge implications for the better or the worse.

[Shell Mound]

The SAL will eventually subside and the hurricanes will come but the early indicators to me continue to suggest a weaker Bermuda High than seen in 2016-2017 allowing storms to potentially recurve well east of the US and potentially the islands.

Actually, the Bermuda High has been consistently stronger than average over the past few months, but it was displaced farther northeast than is typical, so it was less noticeable a few months ago, but within the past month it has expanded southwestward, hence the periodic, strong SAL outbreak(s) occurring in tandem with enhanced easterlies over or just north of the northern fringe of the MDR. This is also why the ITCZ has been suppressed to the south of its normal location over the past month or so. We have already seen three TS landfalls on the mainland U.S. as of today, including one in New Jersey (!), two of which exhibited westward components either before, during, or shortly after landfall (Bertha and Cristobal). In fact, I am far more worried about a dangerous season in terms of landfalls on the U.S. and Caribbean than I was just a month and a half ago.

[cheezyWXguy]

The SAL will eventually subside and the hurricanes will come but the early indicators to me continue to suggest a weaker Bermuda High than seen in 2016-2017 allowing storms to potentially recurve well east of the US and potentially the islands. In years past July featured strong ridging especially 2016-2017. All bets are off though for Western Caribbean or storms that form in the Gulf.

Gatorcane were are you getting such data? Just going by the euro precipitation it’s forecasting a stronger then normal high. Infact this current pattern if it sticks which is always a timing issue is very dangerous.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 76832?s=21

I don't have much faith in longer/medium range 500mb setups at all. gator mentioned taking indicators as a grain of salt the other day which I largely disagree with but do make an exception when it comes to this. I take 500mb progs with a grain of salt past 5 days. Just the slightest differences can mean huge implications for the better or the worse.

That’s fine and all that you take the indicators with a grain of salt, and I agree with you. However, I don’t think I’ve seen any indicators, at least in this thread, that suggest a weaker Bermuda high regardless of how reliable they are. If anyone has any I am open to taking them into account.

[toad strangler]

Gatorcane were are you getting such data? Just going by the euro precipitation it’s forecasting a stronger then normal high. Infact this current pattern if it sticks which is always a timing issue is very dangerous.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 76832?s=21

I don't have much faith in longer/medium range 500mb setups at all. gator mentioned taking indicators as a grain of salt the other day which I largely disagree with but do make an exception when it comes to this. I take 500mb progs with a grain of salt past 5 days. Just the slightest differences can mean huge implications for the better or the worse.

That’s fine and all that you take the indicators with a grain of salt, and I agree with you. However, I don’t think I’ve seen any indicators, at least in this thread, that suggest a weaker Bermuda high regardless of how reliable they are. If anyone has any I am open to taking them into account.

I think you mis-read my post.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't have much faith in longer/medium range 500mb setups at all. gator mentioned taking indicators as a grain of salt the other day which I largely disagree with but do make an exception when it comes to this. I take 500mb progs with a grain of salt past 5 days. Just the slightest differences can mean huge implications for the better or the worse.

That’s fine and all that you take the indicators with a grain of salt, and I agree with you. However, I don’t think I’ve seen any indicators, at least in this thread, that suggest a weaker Bermuda high regardless of how reliable they are. If anyone has any I am open to taking them into account.

I think you mis-read my post.

I did? It looks like you largely agree with taking seasonal indicators into account, contrary to gator, but take 500mb progs with little faith. I agree with this. My point was that regardless of reliability, I don’t recall seeing much in this thread to gator’s argument for a weaker high and see a lot more pointing toward a stronger high.

[weathaguyry]

Hopefully Fay’s track doesn’t have implications on the rest of the season, a tropical cyclone taking that same track up the east coast 2 months from now would likely have a much more severe impact.

[SFLcane]

Waves thus far have been extremely impressive. As we get into August trouble will me opón us in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/jpkassell/status/12 ... 95008?s=21

[aspen]

Waves thus far have been extremely impressive. As we get into August trouble will me opón us in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/jpkassell/status/12 ... 95008?s=21

At this rate, as soon as the ITCZ starts lifting north and SAL reduces enough for some moist pockets to exist, some of these AEWs will have much better chances at becoming a TC and one of them probably will. I think the best chances for something to develop will be in later July before the suppressive MJO moves over most of the Atlantic, and then afterwards in early August.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1282000565795532803

[chaser1]

Hopefully Fay’s track doesn’t have implications on the rest of the season, a tropical cyclone taking that same track up the east coast 2 months from now would likely have a much more severe impact.

One of the very sage insights that I learned quite a number of years ago was, there indeed were implications from earlier season T.S. tracks that commonly foretold of future season tracks or track patterns. That doesn't necessarily guarantee a landfall for any one particular dot on a map. What it does imply however is the likelihood of one or more additional storm tracks close to a particular area and a propensity for generally similar directional orientation of tracks for that part of the basin. This phenomenon seems to highlight two primary persistent track patterns for that year. There are years where this seems pretty clear cut, but there are also other years where this seems less discernible. Often these patterns apply to repeat points of tropical cyclone development for that year, while other annual patterns tend to display repeat storm track tendencies. Since tropical cyclone development and motion is entirely dependent on the dynamic conditions at play at that time, there's no way to forward-cast that any one location will definitely be impacted by another tropical storm or hurricane. Having said that though, I fully believe that at least one additional named storm (likely hurricane) will threaten and impact the Northeast U.S. seaboard from Virginia to Maine (probably impacting E. North Carolina as well).

[chaser1]

Waves thus far have been extremely impressive. As we get into August trouble will me opón us in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/jpkassell/status/12 ... 95008?s=21

Fully agree. What concerns me is a very healthy wave-train that remains within a fairly southward suppressed ITCZ over the eastern Atlantic. That would be the mitigating factor for a greater number of quicker developing storms to recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. If higher surface pressures or particularly strong easterly trades result in further westward development (primarily west of 40W), then this would seems to enhance overall risk of an average season to the Caribbean and U.S. in general. If presented with an overactive season, the implications are simply multiplied. Maybe we'll see development somehow largely stymied until nearly reaching the Caribbean? THAT might largely give a much deserved reprieve to Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles, but possibly imply even greater risk to the W. Caribbean, Cuba, U.S. Gulf States.

[gatorcane]

In 2016 and 2017 as well as 2015 most of the daily storms over South Florida were pinned along the west coast each day in June and July which lasted weeks on end with temporary steering flow changes here and there because of a strong Bermuda High anchored over the SW Atlantic, not so much last year or this year so far. In 2016 and 2017, that pattern was suggesting (really telegraphing) something could roll in from the east and in both years something did (Matthew and Irma). Even 2015 something did but the El Nino saved us (Hermine). This year again, things are stagnant with weak steering. It is more of a typical pattern with just seabreeze-driven convection and SW to NE steering over the peninsula as well. Of course the pattern can and will change. Something from the south (Caribbean) is entirely possible.

We have seen a lot of this so far this spring and summer with the Bermuda High displaced well to the east and lower heights over the east coast of the US and Western Atlantic:

[psyclone]

Hermine was 2016...about a month before Matthew

[toad strangler]

In 2016 and 2017 as well as 2015 most of the daily storms over South Florida were pinned along the west coast each day in June and July which lasted weeks on end with temporary steering flow changes here and there because of a strong Bermuda High anchored over the SW Atlantic, not so much last year or this year so far. In 2016 and 2017, that pattern was suggesting (really telegraphing) something could roll in from the east and in both years something did (Matthew and Irma). Even 2015 something did but the El Nino saved us (Hermine). This year again, things are stagnant with weak steering. It is more of a typical pattern with just seabreeze-driven convection and SW to NE steering over the peninsula as well. Of course the pattern can and will change. Something from the south (Caribbean) is entirely possible.

We have seen a lot of this so far this spring and summer with the Bermuda High displaced well to the east and lower heights over the east coast of the US and Western Atlantic:

https://i.postimg.cc/FzpH2bTc/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-5.png

Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, and Katrina are great examples of storms rolling in from the east. I don't put Irma or Matthew in that category regardless of origination point. Even though they spent a large portion of their trek coming West, Irma rolled into FL from the S and Matthew wasn't even a hit so probably shouldn't be mentioned. You have been very persistent with your analysis and that's a good thing. Interesting points about diurnal wet season storms and the coast they favor. You might be on to something. Even though I haven't heard even a whisper about this from the many pros out there. Will be interesting to see if your idea verifys.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1282027638073286658

[CyclonicFury]

The wet Caribbean signal is in start contrast to recent years. That signal wasn't even present in 2017, a year in which the Caribbean was mostly dead west of 65°W.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1282027638073286658

Weaker ridge? Na.. That is actually a very dangerous look for the Florida peninsula if that were to pan out.

[TheStormExpert]

The current Bermuda High setup is definitely contrary of that of the past 4-5 summers around this time. With more of a Westerly or Southwesterly flow thanks to more troughiness located along the U.S. East Coast it almost makes me say what Bermuda High?

Yes the pattern can and will likely change some so I won’t let my guard down, but it is a somewhat encouraging sign especially if one doesn’t want a significant hurricane plowing west towards Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

The wet Caribbean signal is in start contrast to recent years. That signal wasn't even present in 2017, a year in which the Caribbean was mostly dead west of 65°W.

Probably will see some decent Caribbean Cruisers for the first time in 13 years since Dean and Felix in 2007.