2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

We’re did the fish go?

[tolakram]

Seasonal chatter belongs in the seasonal thread, not here please.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro has more MDR development.

[SFLcane]

EPS has a train of hurricanes heading westward across the tropical Atlantic. Bottom half was all headed westward

[sma10]

We’re did the fish go?

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/23/6388d08c6c99f35dc3fba771c95cf594-full.png

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/23/03de03b533f6937a4c89b0bc5a9067a4-full.png

A quick glance at today's 12z Euro ensemble appears a continuation of this trend (not sure if you can post the spaghetti version). Specifically, I notice a tendency for several members to take normal recurve candidates, i.e. systems around 20-25N, 50W and direct them SW towards the Bahamas/GA, a setup that is unusual but what we saw with Ike/Irma, which is an overall general signal of very strong ridging which leads to inevitable US concerns

Edit: LOL literally posted it above while I was typing

[WeatherEmperor]

Tonights Euro has a system in 7 days in the MDR. ICON shows it too








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[LarryWx]

Houston or Brownsville or New Orleans or Biloxi or Panama City or Miami or West Palm or Daytona or Hatteras or NYC or Boston or wherever, we may have yet another problem per the 0Z Euro ensemble hour 324 (for 9/6). I'm not able to display it but suffice it to say that it has numerous members with threats of a H to the CONUS. All of these threats originate from a wave projected to exit Africa around Thursday (8/27) of this week. This is the same wave that SFLcane posted about a few posts above. If he were to post the same for this new run, you'd see a whole lot more of those circles all around the CONUS coastlines.

[SFLcane]

Houston or Brownsville or New Orleans or Biloxi or Panama City or Miami or West Palm or Daytona or Hatteras or NYC or Boston or wherever, we may have yet another problem per the 0Z Euro ensemble hour 324 (for 9/6). I'm not able to display it but suffice it to say that it has numerous members with threats of a H to the CONUS. All of these threats originate from a wave projected to exit Africa around Thursday (8/27) of this week. This is the same wave that SFLcane posted about a few posts above. If he were to post the same for this new run, you'd see a whole lot more of those circles all around the CONUS coastlines.

Yikes! Gets blocked from turning north look at the bend westward on the tracks. This is one to watch closely.

[SFLcane]

As expected for W Hem tropical forcing at this time of the yr, here comes a big Atlantic Canada ridge just in time for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Hopefully, we don't find ourselves w/ a tropical cyclone in the SW Atlantic, because this steering pattern is ugly.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 63968?s=21

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1297837578037735426

[USTropics]

Stay tuned:

[SFLcane]

Loop of 00Z EPS ensembles...

[SFLcane]

Gonna leave this here... loop goes out further with some into the GOM.

[Loveweather12]

Gonna leave this here... loop goes out further with some into the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/sBhiKJy.png

So I assume the steering pattern includes a strong ridge that would push these storms more west?

[SFLcane]

Gonna leave this here... loop goes out further with some into the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/sBhiKJy.png

So I assume the steering pattern includes a strong ridge that would push these storms more west?

Yes that would be correct. But we have to see if something develops first. Conditions should be favorable

[SFLcane]

European model...

[toad strangler]

Not when a good sign when the genesis blind Euro has anything at 10 days out

[LarryWx]

The same threat that was on the 0Z EPS is on the 6Z EPS as far out as it goes (144 hours). The wave in question is one coming off Africa in about 3 days (Thursday 8/27).

[AutoPenalti]

Holy Crap-ola!

A wave that is projected to become something more than that verifying 2 runs in a row on the Euro?? Something ain’t right!

[Hurricaneman]

Holy Crap-ola!

A wave that is projected to become something more than that verifying 2 runs in a row on the Euro?? Something ain’t right!

It just means the ugly could continue meaning storms that get close to land or landfalling storms continue