2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[chaser1]

Needless to say this season has absolutely not acted like an El nino thus far at all. 3 major hurricanes in, and we have a potential record beater in Lee. I'm doubtful of the season dropping off late despite the nino. There's just wayyy too much anomalous warmth out there, even with Lee's probable large cool wake. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see an extended MDR season with the Carribean and Gulf kicking in October as we've seen in recent years.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230908/897bfbda0d7c9d7140163afa3330df41.jpg

Yeah I agree with you. I know there's been a lot of talk, especially early on this season, about how October and beyond should be dead quiet (I myself thought something similar as well), but I think we're definitely seeing how absurdly warm ssts like that indeed have the power to win over El Nino's effects. Heck, I would say that we could potentially see a major hurricane or two during the October-November timeframe before this season truly ends.

I have to agree as well. I am reluctant to believe that what is occurring in the Atlantic basin is as simplistic as a NINO vs. SST battle which NINO has simply "lost". SST's have clearly played a role in top end intensity and RI we've seen thus far. Those high SST's and their effect on the Atlantic are no doubt connected to "Global Warming" (as Larry above suggested). The more imminent question to me though relates to how the remainder of the season plays out in light of the head-scratching question regarding lack of +ENSO impact to the Atlantic thus far. I thought Emmett_Brown's post (from this past Thurs) was particularly insightful given the persistent E. CONUS pattern and the assumption that +ENSO conditions may well NOT insure an assumed early end to the season (which I was fully anticipating). Minus any broadscale pattern change or sudden arrival of strong westerlies that would typically decapitate any October/November hurricane daring to develop in the far W. Atlantic (let along track north of 20N), the increased threat as a result of anomalous SST's may well suggest a significantly enhanced threat for not only Florida but possibly Central America, Mexico, Cuba, Northern GOM, and the Bahamas. At this point, until someone is able to accurately answer the question "Where's Waldo" (+ENSO associated zonal pattern/UL shear), then I'd have to assume that we are not fast approaching the end of the Atlantic season AND have not seen the last '23 Atlantic major hurricane yet. If a major hurricane were to develop in the W. Caribbean or GOM in October or November though, there's a far greater risk of dangerous impact then what Lee's current forecast track would suggest.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1700711368637444220




Tweet contents for those who embargo/can't use Xitter:

Through September 9, the 2023 Atlantic #hurricane season is above average for all tropical cyclone parameters that we track at Colorado State University. The season has been busiest relative to normal for named storms, named storm days and major hurricanes.

My thoughts:

Incredible for a strengthening moderate El Nino. It would be a different story if it were only named storms above-average, since NHC names more tropical storms because of better detection. There's zero excuse for major hurricane count running at double the 1991-2020 average.

[WalterWhite]

Shear appears to be very high throughout the Caribbean. Are the impacts of El Nino finally starting to kick in?

[WalterWhite]

The ensembles are showing a dead Western Atlantic for some reason. They also appear to be showing little to no activity spinning from non-tropical sources (e.g. frontal lows). Is there something at play causing this?

[Category5Kaiju]

Shear appears to be very high throughout the Caribbean. Are the impacts of El Nino finally starting to kick in?
https://i.postimg.cc/dtSWg2F4/wg8shr.gif

It's honestly a bit hard to know for sure at this point in time because shear is pretty dynamic, and unless that remains that way for a long time I'm not entirely sure if that alone would be indicative of El Nino finally actually doing something. I recall even like a week ago, the Caribbean had relatively light shear, and there were sporadic periods before that where shear was rampant.

There's also this:
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1700611650905080207




Not exactly sure if that's really Nino-like

[chaser1]

The ensembles are showing a dead Western Atlantic for some reason. They also appear to be showing little to no activity spinning from non-tropical sources (e.g. frontal lows). Is there something at play causing this?

What time frame are you referring to?? I'm looking at the ensembles pinging all over the place from 120 hrs to past 200 hr.'s, with a primary consolidation in the MDR east of 60W

[WalterWhite]

The ensembles are showing a dead Western Atlantic for some reason. They also appear to be showing little to no activity spinning from non-tropical sources (e.g. frontal lows). Is there something at play causing this?

What time frame are you referring to?? I'm looking at the ensembles pinging all over the place from 120 hrs to past 200 hr.'s, with a primary consolidation in the MDR east of 60W

I am referring to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

[chaser1]

The ensembles are showing a dead Western Atlantic for some reason. They also appear to be showing little to no activity spinning from non-tropical sources (e.g. frontal lows). Is there something at play causing this?

What time frame are you referring to?? I'm looking at the ensembles pinging all over the place from 120 hrs to past 200 hr.'s, with a primary consolidation in the MDR east of 60W

I am referring to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

Well, that is true; Perhaps a few sporadic members popping up in the SW Caribbean depending on which recent or current model run one is focusing on. My guess is that forecast ensemble activity reflects two different things going on. One, a reflection of increasing westerlies at lower latitudes (especially throughout the GOM). The other might just be suggestive of the transition of climo. Depending on if and when we'll see an uptick in NINO related upper-level conditions, I'd otherwise assume that we'd see an increase in ensemble member activity in the W. Caribbean as we near end of Sept. and Oct.

[gatorcane]

The GEFS and EPS are showing an active sub-tropical jet originating from the EPAC which positions itself right over the GOM and Florida in the wake of Lee and sits there there through rest of the model runs through 384 hours. That looks more like an El Niño look to me and probably why the ensembles are not showing much there. It is certainly possible the GOM and possibly Caribbean shut down early this year because of the El Niño and some of the long-range modeling is hinting at that:

[zzzh]

If something forms in the Caribbean that jet can be easily pushed north.

[chaser1]

The GEFS and EPS are showing an active sub-tropical jet originating from the EPAC which positions itself right over the GOM and Florida in the wake of Lee and sits there there through rest of the model runs through 384 hours. That looks more like an El Niño look to me and probably why the ensembles are not showing much there. It is certainly possible the GOM and possibly Caribbean shut down early this year because of the El Niño and some of the long-range modeling is hinting at that:

https://i.postimg.cc/zvVzV3fn/eps-shear-epac-fh168-282.gif

That sure would make a lot of sense, and right in line with anticipated NINO impact. To the extent that this verifies and dependent on how far south this southerly jet migrates, then future development may soon be limited to the southwest Caribbean or significantly higher latitudes of the sub-tropics and Central Atlantic. Will probably still need to keep an eye out for that temporary pattern break where Mother Nature could try and throw a CAG into the wheel

[chaser1]

:uarrow: If something forms in the Caribbean that jet can be easily pushed north.

"Easily"? When was the last time you tried pushing a 400 mile wide swath of 40 - 60 knot winds LOL? I know where you're coming from in terms of a large tropical cyclone impacting the environment around it, but we're not talking about a small cut-off low here. That graphic depicts a long long train; One that I wouldn't want to have to wait to pass at any traffic intersection.

[WalterWhite]

The GEFS and EPS are showing an active sub-tropical jet originating from the EPAC which positions itself right over the GOM and Florida in the wake of Lee and sits there there through rest of the model runs through 384 hours. That looks more like an El Niño look to me and probably why the ensembles are not showing much there. It is certainly possible the GOM and possibly Caribbean shut down early this year because of the El Niño and some of the long-range modeling is hinting at that:

https://i.postimg.cc/zvVzV3fn/eps-shear-epac-fh168-282.gif

That sure would make a lot of sense, and right in line with anticipated NINO impact. To the extent that this verifies and dependent on how far south this southerly jet migrates, then future development may soon be limited to the southwest Caribbean or significantly higher latitudes of the sub-tropics and Central Atlantic. Will probably still need to keep an eye out for that temporary pattern break where Mother Nature could try and throw a CAG into the wheel

If this happens soon, that could cause September to underperform majorly (no pun intended). If September stops with future Nigel, it would only get us to 4 Septembers (Katia, Lee, Margot, and Nigel). That is lower than 2018 and 2019 (which had 7 each), 2020 (which had 10), 2021 (which had 9), and 2022 (which had 6). Additionally, models are also indicating dead subtropical activity after the dissipation of Lee, Margot, and Nigel. There is a possibility (not saying it will happen) that September 2023 will underperform the previous 5 Septembers in terms of storm count.

A favorable MJO pulse should prevent this, but this possibility always exists.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: If something forms in the Caribbean that jet can be easily pushed north.

"Easily"? When was the last time you tried pushing a 400 mile wide swath of 40 - 60 knot winds LOL? I know where you're coming from in terms of a large tropical cyclone impacting the environment around it, but we're not talking about a small cut-off low here. That graphic depicts a long long train; One that I wouldn't want to have to wait to pass at any traffic intersection.

Hawaii always has a similar 200mb look. Doesn't stop systems from threatening the islands from the east or south. El Nino shear is typically high shear in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

All of this with El Niño.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1701049953647473092

[CyclonicFury]

The GEFS and EPS are showing an active sub-tropical jet originating from the EPAC which positions itself right over the GOM and Florida in the wake of Lee and sits there there through rest of the model runs through 384 hours. That looks more like an El Niño look to me and probably why the ensembles are not showing much there. It is certainly possible the GOM and possibly Caribbean shut down early this year because of the El Niño and some of the long-range modeling is hinting at that:

https://i.postimg.cc/zvVzV3fn/eps-shear-epac-fh168-282.gif

That sure would make a lot of sense, and right in line with anticipated NINO impact. To the extent that this verifies and dependent on how far south this southerly jet migrates, then future development may soon be limited to the southwest Caribbean or significantly higher latitudes of the sub-tropics and Central Atlantic. Will probably still need to keep an eye out for that temporary pattern break where Mother Nature could try and throw a CAG into the wheel

If this happens soon, that could cause September to underperform majorly (no pun intended). If September stops with future Nigel, it would only get us to 4 Septembers (Katia, Lee, Margot, and Nigel). That is lower than 2018 and 2019 (which had 7 each), 2020 (which had 10), 2021 (which had 9), and 2022 (which had 6). Additionally, models are also indicating dead subtropical activity after the dissipation of Lee, Margot, and Nigel. There is a possibility (not saying it will happen) that September 2023 will underperform the previous 5 Septembers in terms of storm count.

A favorable MJO pulse should prevent this, but this possibility always exists.

I wouldn't say September would "underperform majorly" if there was little to no TC activity for the rest of the month after the 0/50 AOI. So far, it seems like September has mostly been a train of recurving MDR storms, with no TCG in the western basin so far. September 2020 and 2021 both saw a lot of weak, short-lived storms, but neither month was record-breaking in terms of ACE. September 2017 only had 4 named storms form during the month and ended up with 150+ ACE. The Atlantic has already produced ~25 ACE for September with more to come over the coming weeks.

[869MB]

The GEFS and EPS are showing an active sub-tropical jet originating from the EPAC which positions itself right over the GOM and Florida in the wake of Lee and sits there there through rest of the model runs through 384 hours. That looks more like an El Niño look to me and probably why the ensembles are not showing much there. It is certainly possible the GOM and possibly Caribbean shut down early this year because of the El Niño and some of the long-range modeling is hinting at that:

https://i.postimg.cc/zvVzV3fn/eps-shear-epac-fh168-282.gif

A late season devastating Hurricane Mitch type storm could still be possible near Nicaragua and Central America even if those ensembles verify throughout the long term.

[Hurricaneman]

We have things typical of El Niño like south of 20N in the Caribbean seems to be shut down with shear but atypical of El Niño also like multiple major hurricanes and high numbers of development. Seems like the only thing the El Niño did was shut down the Caribbean

[Teban54]

We have things typical of El Niño like south of 20N in the Caribbean seems to be shut down with shear but atypical of El Niño also like multiple major hurricanes and high numbers of development. Seems like the only thing the El Niño did was shut down the Caribbean

I wouldn't even call the Caribbean shut down as both Franklin and Idalia formed there. Even pre-Dora almost formed in the western Caribbean.

Intensity wise, perhaps, but that depends more on track this time of the season. At this point in 2020, the strongest Caribbean storm was Cat 1 Nana (which may not have been a hurricane at all). The season went on to have an insane Caribbean season in October with Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota.

Not saying the same will happen in 2023, but it's not impossible to see more activity there later in the season.

[NDG]

This is probably as close as Andy Hazelton will come in saying "I stand corrected"
I even remember him saying that he would quit Meteorology if the strong El Nino didn't shut down the Atlantic during the peak of the season.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1701284520656318471