Rita Recon Reports

[superfly]

Looks like ERC is complete, there is no longer a double wind maxima.

[cycloneye]

081
URNT12 KNHC 230338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/03:24:50Z
B. 26 deg 10 min N
090 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2406 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 311 deg 107 kt
G. 219 deg 018 nm
H. 919 mb
I. 11 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NW QUAD 01:50:40 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANT VERY RAGGED FROM E-W

[gotoman38]

I'll go 923.... bob barker says "come on up"! lol

EDIT: dang.... wrong way

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow 2 more millibars up. This is what you call Anti-bombing. It has went up from 897 this morning to 919 now. Thats 22 millibars rise holy crap!

[LTHLBLU]

yea, it seems like its not gonna reach a bare 5 if at all

[windnrain]

Why am I getting:

000
URNT12 KNHC 230159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:44:40Z
B. 26 deg 03 min N
090 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2381 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 227 deg 109 kt
G. 136 deg 017 nm
H. 917 mb
I. 12 C/ 3015 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO18-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 00:04:20 Z
INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E

[gotoman38]

Wow 2 more millibars up. This is what you call Anti-bombing. It has went up from 897 this morning to 919 now. Thats 22 millibars rise holy crap!

isn't it a little too early to call the EWRC a bust? there's some heat coming in the path and RITA might just use some momentum to gain a little strength?[/quote]

[tallywx]

yea, it seems like its not gonna reach a bare 5 if at all

Not so fast.

Below is what Hurricane Allen did during an ERC in the Gulf of Mexico:

29 21.00 -84.80 08/07/12Z 155 910 HURRICANE-5
30 21.80 -86.40 08/07/18Z 165 899 HURRICANE-5
31 22.20 -87.90 08/08/00Z 155 920 HURRICANE-5
32 22.80 -89.20 08/08/06Z 130 945 HURRICANE-4
33 23.40 -90.50 08/08/12Z 115 960 HURRICANE-4
34 23.90 -91.80 08/08/18Z 130 940 HURRICANE-4
35 24.50 -93.00 08/09/00Z 145 912 HURRICANE-5
36 25.00 -94.20 08/09/06Z 155 909 HURRICANE-5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think thats form 2 hours ago. Rita is weaking right now as the now eye is going to be huge. No way can this new eye hold a low pressure like this.

[soonertwister]

The eye is 30 miles wide. That's where it was for most of yesterday.

No giant eye at this time.

[soonertwister]

Correction, most of yesterday it was a 20 miles wide.

But you'd expect a larger eye at the end of an ERC. Now the windfield has undoubtedly gotten larger, and the eye will start to shrink back down.

[gotoman38]

I think thats form 2 hours ago. Rita is weaking right now as the now eye is going to be huge. No way can this new eye hold a low pressure like this.

but she only really started dropping pressure recently.... it has been lower for hours.... my thermodynamic knowledge sez that she'll regain that energy somewhere????

[Dmetal81]

The eye is 30 miles wide. That's where it was for most of yesterday.

No giant eye at this time.

Well, its still 12 miles wider then the previous eye, (18nm) When that finally makes itself abundantly clear and begins to contract, pressure will fall again. Also, the NHC has been stressing in their discussion that her pressure is very low for her winds to be CAT4.... maybe things are starting balance themselves out

[gotoman38]

I think thats form 2 hours ago. Rita is weaking right now as the now eye is going to be huge. No way can this new eye hold a low pressure like this.

but she only really started dropping pressure recently.... it has been lower for hours.... my thermodynamic knowledge sez that she'll regain that energy somewhere????

CLARIFICATION: droppping pressure = higher #s

[Eyes2theSkies]

they will balance out energy will spread, out eye will tighten ,pressure will drop, wind will increase.

[gotoman38]

they will balance out energy will spread, out eye will tighten ,pressure will drop, wind will increase.

Thanks... holy crap!

[soonertwister]

Latest model runs are seriously disconcerting. Unfortunately, that's what I've been seeing since early today.

See this thread to see what I mean.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 92#1072392

And an ERC is concluding to boot. Do we need any more really good news?

[gotoman38]

Latest model runs are seriously disconcerting. Unfortunately, that's what I've been seeing since early today.

See this thread to see what I mean.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 92#1072392

And an ERC is concluding to boot. Do we need any more really good news?

I see a La landfall and stall, bad bad bad news indeed.

[soonertwister]

Latest model runs are seriously disconcerting. Unfortunately, that's what I've been seeing since early today.

See this thread to see what I mean.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 92#1072392

And an ERC is concluding to boot. Do we need any more really good news?

I see a La landfall and stall, bad bad bad news indeed.

To be frankly honest, a Lousiana landfall is probably the best case scenario.

[jj_frap]

Latest model runs are seriously disconcerting. Unfortunately, that's what I've been seeing since early today.

See this thread to see what I mean.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 92#1072392

And an ERC is concluding to boot. Do we need any more really good news?

I see a La landfall and stall, bad bad bad news indeed.

To be frankly honest, a Lousiana landfall is probably the best case scenario.

I agree. Hopefully, eve if Rita doesn't weaken significantly, she will at least pull a Camille and devastate a sparsely populated area of little economic importance.