2015 Global model runs discussion

#1521 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:44 pm

Let's see if the EURO also backs off this afternoon as well. If not, then i'm presuming we'll simply see the GFS become more bullish again by tonight's 0Z run. Given the fragility of necessary conditions required for genesis (no less in a strong El Nino year), I don't think it odd that we see the models as inconsistent and doing their typical "windshield wiper" dance on development that would still be 7-10 days out. Having said that, I can't honestly say that the EURO has been stellar this year either. In years past this model would be far less apt to show a tropical cyclone on one or two forecast runs, and then just suddenly just drop it. I think the EURO long range forecast will really begin to start getting a lot of people's attention if still holding on to a forecast depicting W. Caribbean development during it's next 2 or 3 model runs (unless each run were to keep moving the goalposts further back :Touchdown:

,or if genesis were to be forecast weaker over each run).

Right now and for the next few days, i'd be a bit more curious to see where the larger upstream global long-wave pattern might begin to show greater amplitude than forecast, thus perhaps a little bit more of a tip off regarding how the upper levels might be apt to set up over and around Central America, the Gulf, and the W. Caribbean.

Weatherwatcher98 · #1522 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:45 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Well the 12z Euro runs shortly, let's see if it changes it's tune as well.

I am sure it will

#1523 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:48 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Well the 12z Euro runs shortly, let's see if it changes it's tune as well.

We are not really seeing a huge change in tune by the 12Z guidance so far. Yes the GFS operational and CMC are weaker, but the GFS has the low over the Yucatan longer and the CMC still has a 998MB cyclone into South Florida at the end. The GFS ensembles haven't waivered much since the previous runs, maybe a tad weaker. Had the GFS been more to the east, would have been much stronger I would think. The last two ECMWF runs were nearly identical with the cyclone developing E of Belize and heading N or NNE. I wouldn't expect the ECMWF to suddenly drop development after two consistent runs like that but it is in the ECMWF medium to long-range guidance so it is possible especially as it has struggled quite a bit this year in that range.

Let's not forget this is all medium to long-range that we are talking. The models are trying to get a better handle on what really happens here and not a surprise they are waivering some at this point.

#1524 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:51 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Well the 12z Euro runs shortly, let's see if it changes it's tune as well.
I am sure it will

Why?

TheStormExpert · #1525 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:55 pm

12z Euro running...

Hammy · #1526 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:12 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Well the 12z Euro runs shortly, let's see if it changes it's tune as well.
I am sure it will

Why?

Euro's 7-10 day has performed worse this year than I've ever seen, and the trend seems to be stronger high pressure so I'm also inclined to agree the run will change--ether a weak low will be shoved into the Yucatan, or it'll be entirely in the EPac.

#1527 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:39 pm

12Z Euro 180: has low in EPAC and less in W Caribbean than hour 192 of 0Z. Initial guess: this run won't have as much, if any, TC development in W Caribbean in rest of run vs last two Euros.

#1528 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:43 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro 180: has low in EPAC and less in W Caribbean than hour 192 of 0Z. Initial guess: this run won't have as much, if any, TC development in W Caribbean in rest of run vs last two Euros.

Confirmed: less dev. at hour 192 of 12Z Euro vs 204 of 0Z and vs 216 of yesterday's 12Z Euro. Epac has more of energy.
SLP only down to 1009 at 192 vs 1005 on 0Z at 204 and ~1005-6 on yesterday's 12Z

Credit to hammy for good prediction of this run

#1529 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:46 pm

Euro is in the EPAC

PTrackerLA · #1530 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:49 pm

Heh, looks like models are trending towards more land interaction/central america or an EPac system.

#1531 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:57 pm

Hammy wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:Well the 12z Euro runs shortly, let's see if it changes it's tune as well.
I am sure it will

Why?

Euro's 7-10 day has performed worse this year than I've ever seen, and the trend seems to be stronger high pressure so I'm also inclined to agree the run will change--ether a weak low will be shoved into the Yucatan, or it'll be entirely in the EPac.[/quote]

Totally agree with you Hammy, and such is the case once again here (updated 12Z EURO run); I earlier suggested the same potential regarding the EURO to "windshield wiper" back as well especially in light of its performance this year. My previous post (above) was directed as a question to Weatherwatcher98 regarding the reasoning of their post (whether based on perceived dynamics or confidence in model accuracy)

Weatherlover12 · #1532 Postby **Weatherlover12** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:01 pm

This is only one model run so I wouldn't loose interest that quick.
And lastly, I don't know why the EURO is called King?? The model has underperformed this year. Actually all the models have not been their best this year. So I don't know why we worship the euro and other models. It's time for pro Mets and weather people to follow the weather pattern & look at the environment to determine what's going to happen. Because just worshiping models all the time isn't going to really determine the future.

Have a good day

#1533 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:02 pm

Euro has a 1006mb low just west of the Yucatan in the BOC at the end of the run. Likely would get ejected NE with the cold front over the Central U.S.

#1534 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:04 pm

The 12Z Euro is far less bullish in the W Caribbean vs the last two runs due to having more energy further south, which leads to more energy in Epac. It only has a very weak low day 10 Bay of Campeche and not til day 10.

Climo for W half of GOM incl. Bay of Campeche is far less favorable than W. Caribbean for TC genesis 10/11-20 (leading to TS+) with only 4 geneses vs 26 for W. Caribbean west of 80W since 1851:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/10_11_20_nhc.png

4 rather than 3 through 2014 for W GOM because 2014 had one and this map goes only through 2009

None of these 4 later hit FL.

#1535 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:08 pm

While we're seeing nearly all the models back off W. Caribbean development at this time and favoring greater energy on the Pacific side, I have a sneaking suspicion that in about 2-3 days we're going to start seeing model support for Atlantic development coming back, but this time over in the B.O.C. If I'm right, then forecast confidence will probably by greater simply due to the decreased time frame for development to occur. If development were to occur in that rough time frame, I'd guess ensemble members would be initially split between a N.E. motion towards Yucatan/Florida Straits and a general Westward motion into Mexico.

#1536 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:09 pm

12Z GEPS (CMC ensembles) has alot of activity across the Western and NW Caribbean

#1537 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:Euro has a 1006mb low just west of the Yucatan in the BOC at the end of the run. Likely would get ejected NE with the cold front over the Central U.S.

LOL, I just read your prior post on the later EURO "end of run" BOC low, as I was typing my guess that model support will grow in a couple days in favor of potential B.O.C. development. We'll see, certainly plausible

#1538 Postby **WPBWeather** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:17 pm

Weatherlover12 wrote:This is only one model run so I wouldn't loose interest that quick.
And lastly, I don't know why the EURO is called King?? The model has underperformed this year. Actually all the models have not been their best this year. So I don't know why we worship the euro and other models. It's time for pro Mets and weather people to follow the weather pattern & look at the environment to determine what's going to happen. Because just worshiping models all the time isn't going to really determine the future.

Have a good day

The Euro is either King or trash, depending on the situation. That is the Storm2K blogger collective opinion.

#1539 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:29 pm

12z Navy Navgem has a TS drifting north near the western tip of Cuba at 180hrs

Leta give it another day or so. If all models then stop WC development then we can move on but I have a feeling that if the 18z Gfs later today for example shows development just 60 miles further east, it could show development in the WC again. Land interaction is so critical.

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

Weatherwatcher98 · #1540 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z GEPS (CMC ensembles) has alot of activity across the Western and NW Caribbean

CMC

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