LarryWx wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:12z Euro has MDR development starting at 216 hours.
This is like the 5th run in a row for the Euro to have a surface low to form in the far E MDR near 9/1. The EPS has also been showing this with about 20% of the 51 members for several days of runs having an actual TC genesis shortly after. Something to monitor but hoping any formation would later safely recurve, which is the climo most likely thing especially in El Niño or pre-El Niño seasons. Also, there’d be hope it would later dissipate over open waters if it doesn’t recurve safely.
After not having much on the 0Z EPS, the 12Z EPS along with the operational are back to what had been showing up on multiple runs mid to late last week meaning ~20% of the EPS members in addition to the operational showing a genesis near 9/1 in the far E MDR. The members' TCs stay small with ~3 of them becoming a small H. Most either dissipate or recurve before 50W though one makes it intact just past 60W on 9/8 before dissipating NE of the Caribbean. So, as far as the W basin is concerned, the model based suggestion is that this is likely to not end up being much of a threat should it form though we'd have to see as we get closer to potential development
However, follow-up waves are also showing some geneses between 9/5 and 9/10 in the E MDR. Those are way too far out in time to speculate on right now. But if there were to be multiple TCs to form in the E MDR 9/1-10, it wouldn't be outside of climo norms even in an assumed oncoming weak El Nino for one to at least threaten the W basin as we head toward mid-Sep. though I'm not predicting that.
In the W basin, the 12Z EPS has a few TC geneses in the GOM and off the SE US coast 9/5-8. Something like that would probably end up being the greater threat for obvious reasons.
Looks like we could see a shot at having three at once (which is a sort of activity benchmark of mine). Fits with what the Euro, CMC, and parallel GFS have been hinting at.
