2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1282027638073286658

Weaker ridge? Na.. That is actually a very dangerous look for the Florida peninsula if that were to pan out.

I’m thinking more the Carolinas into the Northeast U.S. are at highest risk in my opinion.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1282027638073286658

Weaker ridge? Na.. That is actually a very dangerous look for the Florida peninsula if that were to pan out.

I’m thinking more the Carolinas into the Northeast U.S. are at highest risk in my opinion.

Just for comparison purposes. Again if that ridge setup we’re to persist the Southeast would be in big trouble if something develops.

[NDG]

In 2016 and 2017 as well as 2015 most of the daily storms over South Florida were pinned along the west coast each day in June and July which lasted weeks on end with temporary steering flow changes here and there because of a strong Bermuda High anchored over the SW Atlantic, not so much last year or this year so far. In 2016 and 2017, that pattern was suggesting (really telegraphing) something could roll in from the east and in both years something did (Matthew and Irma). Even 2015 something did but the El Nino saved us (Hermine). This year again, things are stagnant with weak steering. It is more of a typical pattern with just seabreeze-driven convection and SW to NE steering over the peninsula as well. Of course the pattern can and will change. Something from the south (Caribbean) is entirely possible.

We have seen a lot of this so far this spring and summer with the Bermuda High displaced well to the east and lower heights over the east coast of the US and Western Atlantic:

https://i.postimg.cc/FzpH2bTc/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-5.png

A lot of the experts see strong ridging developing across the NE US and SE Canada during the heart of the hurricane season.
If you really look back, 2017's Bermuda ridge was not that strong because 2 of the 3 major hurricanes that came across the eastern Caribbean tracked north of Hispaniola with 2 of them never threatening the US. Harvey tracked into TX because it remained weak through the Caribbean. When the Bermuda ridge is as its strongest the storms go south of FL into the GOM, MX or C.A.
2004 had a troughiness pattern across the eastern US but by the heart of the hurricane season ridging in SE Canada and NE US took over thus why FL had so many landfalls.
2008 also had a similar shift in the pattern by the heart of the hurricane season.

Despite the near neutral to negative NAO index since June 1st ridging across the northern Atlantic has been strong.



On the flip side there is 2010's -NAO pattern that developed during the heart of the hurricane season. During June, July & Aug the eastern US had strong ridging with, but by September troughiness developed across the eastern US and western Atlantic, they all recurved OTS.

[WeatherEmperor]

In 2016 and 2017 as well as 2015 most of the daily storms over South Florida were pinned along the west coast each day in June and July which lasted weeks on end with temporary steering flow changes here and there because of a strong Bermuda High anchored over the SW Atlantic, not so much last year or this year so far. In 2016 and 2017, that pattern was suggesting (really telegraphing) something could roll in from the east and in both years something did (Matthew and Irma). Even 2015 something did but the El Nino saved us (Hermine). This year again, things are stagnant with weak steering. It is more of a typical pattern with just seabreeze-driven convection and SW to NE steering over the peninsula as well. Of course the pattern can and will change. Something from the south (Caribbean) is entirely possible.

We have seen a lot of this so far this spring and summer with the Bermuda High displaced well to the east and lower heights over the east coast of the US and Western Atlantic:

[postimg.cc/FzpH2bTc/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-5.png[/img]

What you said is exactly the main reason why I feel Florida is at higher risk of getting hit from the Caribbean this year. In March-April 2017, I was glued to Youtube constantly watching Andrew footage because the steering currents in 2017 made me feel deep down in my gut that Florida would be threatened by a major hurricane coming from the deep tropics...and my gut was right as Irma came our way. This year based on the steering flow you discussed and the possibility of at least a weak La Nina forming in October, I am constantly glued to Youtube watching Wilma coverage. My gut tells me Florida will get hit by a Caribbean system...especially with much of the data showing a wetter and more favorable environment in the Caribbean this year


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aspen]

Thank goodness it isn’t September right now, because there’s a HUGE pocket of 30-32 C waters around south Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba that could lead to explosive intensification of a TC that went through them. These are some of the highest SSTs I’ve seen in the Atlantic, and are ridiculously high for the first half of July.

[SFLcane]

In 2016 and 2017 as well as 2015 most of the daily storms over South Florida were pinned along the west coast each day in June and July which lasted weeks on end with temporary steering flow changes here and there because of a strong Bermuda High anchored over the SW Atlantic, not so much last year or this year so far. In 2016 and 2017, that pattern was suggesting (really telegraphing) something could roll in from the east and in both years something did (Matthew and Irma). Even 2015 something did but the El Nino saved us (Hermine). This year again, things are stagnant with weak steering. It is more of a typical pattern with just seabreeze-driven convection and SW to NE steering over the peninsula as well. Of course the pattern can and will change. Something from the south (Caribbean) is entirely possible.

We have seen a lot of this so far this spring and summer with the Bermuda High displaced well to the east and lower heights over the east coast of the US and Western Atlantic:

https://i.postimg.cc/FzpH2bTc/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-5.png

A lot of the experts see strong ridging developing across the NE US and SE Canada during the heart of the hurricane season.
If you really look back, 2017's Bermuda ridge was not that strong because 2 of the 3 major hurricanes that came across the eastern Caribbean tracked north of Hispaniola with 2 of them never threatening the US. Harvey tracked into TX because it remained weak through the Caribbean. When the Bermuda ridge is as its strongest the storms go south of FL into the GOM, MX or C.A.
2004 had a troughiness pattern across the eastern US but by the heart of the hurricane season ridging in SE Canada and NE US took over thus why FL had so many landfalls.
2008 also had a similar shift in the pattern by the heart of the hurricane season.

Despite the near neutral to negative NAO index since June 1st ridging across the northern Atlantic has been strong.

https://i.imgur.com/2SV2B93.gif

On the flip side there is 2010's -NAO pattern that developed during the heart of the hurricane season. During June, July & Aug the eastern US had strong ridging with, but by September troughiness developed across the eastern US and western Atlantic, they all recurved OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/Qno3A6B.gif
https://i.imgur.com/F5EIUad.gif

Let’s hope that pattern isn’t there during ASO.

[Hammy]

CFS check-in time:

Hurricane off east coast in late July

three systems in the MDR in early August--one off Africa which stays a TS, one midway to the Caribbean that goes out to sea as a hurricane (Gert-2017 type track), and one that takes a Fay-2008 track until reaching Cuba at which point it continues on and hits Texas as a major

Tropical storm or depression into S Texas preceding the aforementioned major in early August

Out to sea tropical storm around Aug 20

Three more MDR tropical storms--one in late August in the eastern Atlantic that recurves, a second in the central in early September, and a third in the western Atlantic around the peak

Late September the second switch turns on, with three strong systems originating in the MDR--one skirts the Caribbean and goes into (or brushes) the Carolinas as a major, a second from the Eastern Atlantic recurving along a Lorenzo-type track (likely a major), and a third long-tracking major recurving through the central Atlantic into early October.

That's followed by two more weaker storms in the MDR and one through south Florida, all in early October, where the model ends.

That run would put the season at 20 storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 2-4 majors, given the resolution and some smaller storms that aren't listed as hurricanes or majors could very well be on a higher resolution model.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1282043899146575873

[USTropics]

One aspect of forecasting that's extremely difficult to predict, even 10 days in advance, are steering currents. The skill forecast at seasonal levels is exponentially lower in skill, and for good reasons – it's trivial to say anything beyond "this area has slightly increased chance of seeing activity" this far in advance. Not only do we have the variability of seasonal changes (see 2004, 2010), but there is no adequate way to forecast mesoscale features that impact steering currents (see Dorian, Matthew). Dorian is a perfect example--24 hours faster, that mesoscale feature that developed over the Midwest doesn’t develop in time, and Dorian likely landfalls (and stalls) in Florida. 24 hours slower, and Dorian doesn’t devastate the Bahamas.

What we can do is look at current patterns, forecasted patterns, and surmise a general pattern of where storms may track (e.g. quick recurves, subtropics, Caribbean, or western Atlantic). We also must take into account where these storms are likely to form and strengthen. For instance, 23 of the 28 storms that formed in 2005 actually reached their highest intensity peaks in the subtropics/northern Atlantic. All but one of the landfalling hurricanes – Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Stan, Beta – had delayed formation until reaching the Caribbean or Bahamas (Emily formed in the MDR, but really struggled until it reached the Caribbean).

All storms that reached hurricane strength in 2005


So essentially, we must identify pockets where steering currents favor westward tracks and potential AEWs that could form during these pockets (which is low-skill 10+ days). I’m not so worried about systems forming in the MDR (while long trackers can make landfall, it’s rare). It’s the waves that don’t immediately form and find a (so far) favorable western Atlantic that has me most concerned.

[toad strangler]

One aspect of forecasting that's extremely difficult to predict, even 10 days in advance, are steering currents. The skill forecast at seasonal levels is exponentially lower in skill, and for good reasons – it's trivial to say anything beyond "this area has slightly increased chance of seeing activity" this far in advance. Not only do we have the variability of seasonal changes (see 2004, 2010), but there is no adequate way to forecast mesoscale features that impact steering currents (see Dorian, Matthew). Dorian is a perfect example--24 hours faster, that mesoscale feature that developed over the Midwest doesn’t develop in time, and Dorian likely landfalls (and stalls) in Florida. 24 hours slower, and Dorian doesn’t devastate the Bahamas.

What we can do is look at current patterns, forecasted patterns, and surmise a general pattern of where storms may track (e.g. quick recurves, subtropics, Caribbean, or western Atlantic). We also must take into account where these storms are likely to form and strengthen. For instance, 23 of the 28 storms that formed in 2005 actually reached their highest intensity peaks in the subtropics/northern Atlantic. All but one of the landfalling hurricanes – Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Stan, Beta – had delayed formation until reaching the Caribbean or Bahamas (Emily formed in the MDR, but really struggled until it reached the Caribbean).

All storms that reached hurricane strength in 2005
https://i.imgur.com/AKQz1EB.png

So essentially, we must identify pockets where steering currents favor westward tracks and potential AEWs that could form during these pockets (which is low-skill 10+ days). I’m not so worried about systems forming in the MDR (while long trackers can make landfall, it’s rare). It’s the waves that don’t immediately form and find a (so far) favorable western Atlantic that has me most concerned.

Yes sir! 500mb set ups / steering are a final frontier type indicator that has been hardly understood. This is why i have littered this forum with cautionary posts when assuming favorable areas. I am convinced that you can rubber stamp the same EXACT indicators that we all look at from a analog year into the present year and you will get a whole new set of tracks. All thanks to the incredible complexity of steering influences.

[toad strangler]

July is gonna July

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1282058888980787202

[CyclonicFury]

It appears we are heading in to our usual late July/early August lull that separates the early season from peak season. The Atlantic could go 2-4 weeks without a tropical cyclone, but considering July only averages one named storm or so that wouldn't be surprising.

The MDR isn't ready yet. The past two years it didn't get going until the last week of August for the most part. It could be a bit sooner this year considering the more favorable base state, warmer MDR, and less north displaced west African ITF.

There have been many hyperactive seasons without a hurricane in July, I knew a lot were bullish on one forming on the poll but I was not. We'll see if something pops up towards the end of the month, but barring an unexpected spinup the next 7-10 days at least look dead. I still expect a very active peak, and unless we get to the last week of August without any signs of activity in the deep tropics, I will hold firm on that prediction.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1282083549982621703

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1282074900585381888

[aspen]

It appears we are heading in to our usual late July/early August lull that separates the early season from peak season. The Atlantic could go 2-4 weeks without a tropical cyclone, but considering July only averages one named storm or so that wouldn't be surprising.

The MDR isn't ready yet. The past two years it didn't get going until the last week of August for the most part. It could be a bit sooner this year considering the more favorable base state, warmer MDR, and less north displaced west African ITF.

There have been many hyperactive seasons without a hurricane in July, I knew a lot were bullish on one forming on the poll but I was not. We'll see if something pops up towards the end of the month, but barring an unexpected spinup the next 7-10 days at least look dead. I still expect a very active peak, and unless we get to the last week of August without any signs of activity in the deep tropics, I will hold firm on that prediction.

A July hurricane doesn’t seem to matter as much as any system in July forming from an AEW. It doesn’t have to be a hurricane; it can be something weak and pathetic like Alex ‘98, Bonnie ‘10, or Don ‘17. Most active to hyperactive seasons within the last 40 years have had at least one July system form from a tropical wave. There are several exceptions (1980, 1999, 2001, 2012, 2016, and 2019), but in general, some of the most active seasons these last few decades have had an AEW-based named storm: 1995, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017, and 2018. A lack of such a system in 2020 won’t be an immediate season cancel, but it could be a sign that the higher-end hyperactive forecasts might not come to fruition.

I’m still confident we’ll see a significantly above-average season, especially since we’ve already had Arthur through Fay and it’s only July 11th. However, I will be suspicious if we go the rest of the month without anything forming from a tropical wave, whether it be in the MDR or further west.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s your turn to take the thunder Atlantic basin!

 https://twitter.com/tornadokid3/status/1282088646468935688

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1282049669158154242

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1282049669158154242?s=21

Counters Webb that has mentioned the contrary. Guess what, this thread is having good healthy discussions from the two sides of the spectrum and that is good for the members.

[TheStormExpert]

Chaserdude Josh Morgerman notorious for riding out Hurricane Dorian in Marsh Harbor last September is ready for anything that comes barreling towards the U.S.!

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1282116120061849602

[toad strangler]

Chaserdude Josh Morgerman notorious for riding out Hurricane Dorian in Marsh Harbor last September is ready for anything that comes barreling towards the U.S.!

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1282116120061849602

I’m an old former member of Easternwx where Josh was birthed as a chaser circa 2000ish. He used to document his fledgling chases on that forum only. He had no other exposure. They were all US based chases. He used to talk about how he would never island chase because of high bust potential. He has come a long long way from those days.