2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[St0rmTh0r]

European model...

https://i.imgur.com/3w9IXGT.png

https://i.imgur.com/3uG3CiQ.png

You know it's the peak of the hurricane season when you see model runs like these

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS says crickets after Laura while the Euro shows a bigger threat, it’s hard to go with the GFS considering it’s been horrid with cyclogenesis, heck it seems the euro wants to develop the wave over West Africa but the GFS is crickets

[toad strangler]

The GFS says crickets after Laura while the Euro shows a bigger threat, it’s hard to go with the GFS considering it’s been horrid with cyclogenesis, heck it seems the euro wants to develop the wave over West Africa but the GFS is crickets

It sends the Thursday splashdown wave (weak sauce) across and into the GA's where it washes out but if a storm develops under that ridge. Let's see if the 12z Euro still shows it.

[SFLcane]

The GFS says crickets after Laura while the Euro shows a bigger threat, it’s hard to go with the GFS considering it’s been horrid with cyclogenesis, heck it seems the euro wants to develop the wave over West Africa but the GFS is crickets

Crickets? Ah not so sure about that lol.. Peak season + a very favorable environment It’s likely out to lunch.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Euro ends the run with a TS moving slowly WNW in the ATL




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[Hurricaneman]

The 12z Euro ends the run with a TS moving slowly WNW in the ATL

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/b19170b0b5ac07a9662a9122ef7265a5.jpg


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I’m looking forward to the ensembles

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS is the 3rd run in a row showing a big threat to the SE/E coast of the US from the wave coming off Africa Thursday.

[aspen]

The 12z Euro ends the run with a TS moving slowly WNW in the ATL

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/b19170b0b5ac07a9662a9122ef7265a5.jpg


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The precursor wave emerges off the coast of Africa between Thursday and Friday. If model support improves, we could see it in a TWO soon.

[SFLcane]

The 12z Euro ends the run with a TS moving slowly WNW in the ATL

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/b19170b0b5ac07a9662a9122ef7265a5.jpg


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I’m looking forward to the ensembles

[AutoPenalti]

Nothing is going OTS with that ridge.

[SFLcane]

The ensembles have been trending westward last couple of days. Likely taking longer to develop

[Hurricaneman]

Nothing is going OTS with that ridge.

Nope, let the insanity of 2020 continue

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Euro ends the run with a TS moving slowly WNW in the ATL

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/b19170b0b5ac07a9662a9122ef7265a5.jpg


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I’m looking forward to the ensembles

[img]https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/24/3ff93d23a51cd9f3af8e5c8ae8b30d5b-fu

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Pj]

What direction are the ensembles moving? Are they moving towards the Carolinas or more west towards Florida??


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[pgoss11]

The 12z Euro ends the run with a TS moving slowly WNW in the ATL

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/b19170b0b5ac07a9662a9122ef7265a5.jpg

Wow! Now that’s got my attention. Going to be a fun couple of weeks tracking.
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I’m looking forward to the ensembles

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/24/3ff93d23a51cd9f3af8e5c8ae8b30d5b-full.png

https://i.imgur.com/PjBIlJj.jpg

[SFLcane]

I’m looking forward to the ensembles

[url]https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/24/3ff93d23a51cd9f3af8e5c8ae8b30d5b-fu

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Pj]

What direction are the ensembles moving? Are they moving towards the Carolinas or more west towards Florida??


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Pick your ensemble at this range. They are 50/50 some head wnw some westward other nw. At this range so many variables it’s still over Africa.

[LarryWx]

The wave that leads to the numerous EPS members threatening the SE/Gulf/E US on the last 3 runs is the prominent one now over Africa near 0 longitude between 10N and 20N. It is forecasted to emerge from Africa on Thursday. This is quite robust and already shows curvature. When considering that along with what appear to be generally favorable atmospheric conditions as well as warm SSTs ahead in the MDR and with it being in the heart of the active season during La Nina when many historic storms originated, this one is liable to be a long tracking beast that would be followed for 2 weeks+:

[blp]

12z JMA has it in the Caribbean. So its the Euro, CMC, Icon and JMA so far.

[EquusStorm]

Because of course Nana would be one of the big ones this year lol

[LarryWx]

Because this African wave is now dominating this general model runs discussion thread and this could very well end up a beast, I decided it is now worthy of its own thread. I don't know if I've ever created a thread and hope it is ok with the powers here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121232

[chaser1]

The GFS says crickets after Laura while the Euro shows a bigger threat, it’s hard to go with the GFS considering it’s been horrid with cyclogenesis, heck it seems the euro wants to develop the wave over West Africa but the GFS is crickets

Crickets? Ah not so sure about that lol.. Peak season + a very favorable environment It’s likely out to lunch.

Point being, the prior iteration of GFS update did more to neuter the GFS then all of the humane ASPCA efforts to spay/neuter all of the feral cats & dogs.