2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

https://i.postimg.cc/DZf0p76q/FLORIDA.png

Yeah I also have to open the eyes for Caribbean.

[hurricane2025]

Euro been pretty good this weekend and gfs showing little pattern change, nailed it with Louisiana last time being hot

[SFLcane]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

https://i.postimg.cc/DZf0p76q/FLORIDA.png

Yeah I also have to open the eyes for Caribbean.

The entire Florida peninsula is wet.

[NotSparta]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

https://i.postimg.cc/DZf0p76q/FLORIDA.png

Not sure about that. They're kind of disconnected. Would more suggest fronts I'd guess

[Cat5James]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

https://i.postimg.cc/DZf0p76q/FLORIDA.png

Not sure about that. They're kind of disconnected. Would more suggest fronts I'd guess

The heaviest precipitation anomaly across Florida is tilted NW to SE. Appears opposite of a front

[SFLcane]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

https://i.postimg.cc/DZf0p76q/FLORIDA.png

Not sure about that. They're kind of disconnected. Would more suggest fronts I'd guess

That is alot of fronts lol since the NMME has Florida wet for ASO. Call what you want but its a fairly wet signal for the entire state.

[NotSparta]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

https://i.postimg.cc/DZf0p76q/FLORIDA.png

Not sure about that. They're kind of disconnected. Would more suggest fronts I'd guess

The heaviest precipitation anomaly across Florida is tilted NW to SE. Appears opposite of a front

Are you looking at the same map as I am? I see a big NE-SW band of high precipitation with Florida at the base. Looks very frontal

[skyline385]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

That precip layout looks kinda similar to what you would see for a Caribbean runner making landfall near W coast FL, also in line with the EURO precip forecasts for August (note how dry the open Atlantic is)

[SFLcane]

Not sure about that. They're kind of disconnected. Would more suggest fronts I'd guess

The heaviest precipitation anomaly across Florida is tilted NW to SE. Appears opposite of a front

Are you looking at the same map as I am? I see a big NE-SW band of high precipitation with Florida at the base. Looks very frontal

Its a front maybe we will see some 70's in late aug lol. Either way its interesting to see. Should be a long busy year.

[captainbarbossa19]

Wxman57 your call of threats to the NE gulf, Florida , and the caribbean are valid it appears on the NMME.

https://i.postimg.cc/cHwx5QcV/nmme.png

I think his thoughts were based on the persistent and downright hellish death ridge that has been over us in Texas for months now. Of course, patterns can change, but it has definitely been in place for at least two months now, with little signs of budging.

The Euro forecast was showing a favorable look for the NW Gulf a couple days ago for tc activity but the NMME is showing a more favorable look towards the eastern Gulf it appears to me.

I think it's way too early to speculate on whether or not the NW or NE Gulf will have impacts this season. I remember in 2017 many said the death ridge would protect Texas from anything and then Harvey came. The ridge has not been staying in position all summer either. Yes, it has mainly been situated over the Central Plains, but this weekend it is supposed to shift to the Four Corners, and the GFS was showing it building over the Southeast eventually. All it takes is for one storm to be moving towards the Gulf when the ridge is situated to our east and then the NW Gulf has trouble.

[skyline385]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

https://i.postimg.cc/DZf0p76q/FLORIDA.png

Not sure about that. They're kind of disconnected. Would more suggest fronts I'd guess

Some of these fronts will probably yank systems though FL from the Caribbean as well.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1545050367636828161

[Cpv17]

I think his thoughts were based on the persistent and downright hellish death ridge that has been over us in Texas for months now. Of course, patterns can change, but it has definitely been in place for at least two months now, with little signs of budging.

The Euro forecast was showing a favorable look for the NW Gulf a couple days ago for tc activity but the NMME is showing a more favorable look towards the eastern Gulf it appears to me.

I think it's way too early to speculate on whether or not the NW or NE Gulf will have impacts this season. I remember in 2017 many said the death ridge would protect Texas from anything and then Harvey came. The ridge has not been staying in position all summer either. Yes, it has mainly been situated over the Central Plains, but this weekend it is supposed to shift to the Four Corners, and the GFS was showing it building over the Southeast eventually. All it takes is for one storm to be moving towards the Gulf when the ridge is situated to our east and then the NW Gulf has trouble.

Yeah I’m just conflicted between those 2.

[zzh]

Notice the big dry area in SW, central Atlantic on the NMME forecast. Maybe it's king TUTT?

[toad strangler]

I think his thoughts were based on the persistent and downright hellish death ridge that has been over us in Texas for months now. Of course, patterns can change, but it has definitely been in place for at least two months now, with little signs of budging.

The Euro forecast was showing a favorable look for the NW Gulf a couple days ago for tc activity but the NMME is showing a more favorable look towards the eastern Gulf it appears to me.

I think it's way too early to speculate on whether or not the NW or NE Gulf will have impacts this season. I remember in 2017 many said the death ridge would protect Texas from anything and then Harvey came. The ridge has not been staying in position all summer either. Yes, it has mainly been situated over the Central Plains, but this weekend it is supposed to shift to the Four Corners, and the GFS was showing it building over the Southeast eventually. All it takes is for one storm to be moving towards the Gulf when the ridge is situated to our east and then the NW Gulf has trouble.

Great post. None and I mean NONE of these long range models know where individual storms are going. What is eye popping is the steady stream of signals that say buckle up Atlantic Basin. We have another 3 weeks or so to truly rest.

[SoupBone]

I think his thoughts were based on the persistent and downright hellish death ridge that has been over us in Texas for months now. Of course, patterns can change, but it has definitely been in place for at least two months now, with little signs of budging.

The Euro forecast was showing a favorable look for the NW Gulf a couple days ago for tc activity but the NMME is showing a more favorable look towards the eastern Gulf it appears to me.

I think it's way too early to speculate on whether or not the NW or NE Gulf will have impacts this season. I remember in 2017 many said the death ridge would protect Texas from anything and then Harvey came. The ridge has not been staying in position all summer either. Yes, it has mainly been situated over the Central Plains, but this weekend it is supposed to shift to the Four Corners, and the GFS was showing it building over the Southeast eventually. All it takes is for one storm to be moving towards the Gulf when the ridge is situated to our east and then the NW Gulf has trouble.

I'm not suggesting that Texas is all fine and dandy, I've been here since 2005 and clearly understand that all it takes is one. The ridging may be being displaced here and there, but it's also been very persistent in its location over Texas for several months now. I don't recall the placement or duration of the ridge in 2017, but I don't recall a recent year with this firm of a death ridge in place.

[HoustonFrog]

The Euro forecast was showing a favorable look for the NW Gulf a couple days ago for tc activity but the NMME is showing a more favorable look towards the eastern Gulf it appears to me.

I think it's way too early to speculate on whether or not the NW or NE Gulf will have impacts this season. I remember in 2017 many said the death ridge would protect Texas from anything and then Harvey came. The ridge has not been staying in position all summer either. Yes, it has mainly been situated over the Central Plains, but this weekend it is supposed to shift to the Four Corners, and the GFS was showing it building over the Southeast eventually. All it takes is for one storm to be moving towards the Gulf when the ridge is situated to our east and then the NW Gulf has trouble.

I don't recall the placement or duration of the ridge in 2017, but I don't recall a recent year with this firm of a death ridge in place.

2011?

[toad strangler]

IRT the disco we were having earlier on SST values and how much they effect activity

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1545083025054019584

[SoupBone]

I think it's way too early to speculate on whether or not the NW or NE Gulf will have impacts this season. I remember in 2017 many said the death ridge would protect Texas from anything and then Harvey came. The ridge has not been staying in position all summer either. Yes, it has mainly been situated over the Central Plains, but this weekend it is supposed to shift to the Four Corners, and the GFS was showing it building over the Southeast eventually. All it takes is for one storm to be moving towards the Gulf when the ridge is situated to our east and then the NW Gulf has trouble.

I don't recall the placement or duration of the ridge in 2017, but I don't recall a recent year with this firm of a death ridge in place.

2011?

Others here have much better memories than I do.

[OuterBanker]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

https://i.postimg.cc/DZf0p76q/FLORIDA.png

That precip layout looks kinda similar to what you would see for a Caribbean runner making landfall near W coast FL, also in line with the EURO precip forecasts for August (note how dry the open Atlantic is)

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220707/bc8f9e4a5f79cb5f47f7e48cfd80a47b.jpg

It looks like a lot of east coast runners. Eastern NC seems to be very wet. We are in a drought but too much is also bad.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1545143774011072519