2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: notable uptick in members active with this E Atlantic AEW vs earlier runs.

[Stratton23]

I think this might be the system that gets the basin going

[Hammy]

So now the missing Euro AIRS is showing up in the main Euro. I wonder if this model is better at predicting longer range, but loses sight in the short--if so, the models will likely need used in conjunction with each other. But the Euro also a history history here, where in the past it would show things at the long range (8-10 days), drop them, around day 8, and then show up again 3-4 days out.

12z Euro has a strong TS south of PR..

Lunch break. Do you have an image of 500 mb of that TS? I can't see Euro before my lunch ends.

https://i.imgur.com/D01StKy.jpeg

That wave around 240h should be a good indicator of how favorable the Atlantic is in the near term, looks like (if it's real) it should be offshore in a few runs, especially since it seems like it's getting further south and west.

['CaneFreak]

Looks like support is growing for at least one tropical development in the area bounded by 10 N 60 W and 10 N and 20 W. That's a wall of ensemble members showing something going on. We should have something to track here within the next week I would imagine. ITCZ has shifted south to 10 N now and things are changing out there quickly.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024082612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_28.png

Where on TT do you go to look at those Spaghetti-O models? Or the regular spaghetti ones? Apparently it's not simply a matter of clicking on Ensembles.

(I like to use the scientific terms. )

Ensembles -> GEFS -> Lower Dynamics -> Ensemble Member MSLP

['CaneFreak]

delete

[Stratton23]

The waves behind the one that the 12z Euro develops are definitely coming off at a lower latitude as well

[skyline385]

Very active 12z GEFS and EPS runs, should see it marked by tomorrow as there are plenty of models developing in 7-day range. Also support on EC HRES and CMC, GFS only one lacking so far but should get onboard soon. GFS, EC HRES and CMC.

[LarryWx]

Very active 12z GEFS and EPS runs, should see it marked by tomorrow as there are plenty of models developing in 7-day range. Also support on EC HRES and CMC, GFS only one lacking so far but should get onboard soon.

https://i.imgur.com/TUFqxCb.png

https://i.imgur.com/0zUvQjp.png

12Z GFS also develops this but not til the far NW Car/SE Gulf ~9/9. But the 12Z UKMET still doesn’t have an actual TCG per the textual output.

[skyline385]

Very active 12z GEFS and EPS runs, should see it marked by tomorrow as there are plenty of models developing in 7-day range. Also support on EC HRES and CMC, GFS only one lacking so far but should get onboard soon.

https://i.imgur.com/TUFqxCb.png

https://i.imgur.com/0zUvQjp.png

12Z GFS also develops this but not til the far NW Car/SE Gulf ~9/9. But the 12Z UKMET still doesn’t have an actual TCG per the textual output.

Yea i was just going to post this loop, the system on it is from the same wave and is easily traceable using 700mb plots.

[jlauderdal]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1828135529835073848

Some obstacle like dry air

[SFLcane]

[Matlachamullethead]

Scary set up. Some of those stronger members bend back to the west in time.

[Category5Kaiju]

Scary set up. Some of those stronger members bend back to the west in time.

Waaay too early to determine strength/impacts, but if there was anything we learned from Donna, Andrew, and Dorian…..that kind of track is no bueno.

[Hammy]

https://i.postimg.cc/vTZZLBQH/hhh.png

Is it me or is that 240h African low ticking further south each run?

[Teban54]

https://i.postimg.cc/vTZZLBQH/hhh.png

I count a whopping 34 lows on this map just from the wave around the Greater Antilles (although not sure if those in Western Caribbean are from a wave further west). That would make it 67% of EPS members showing development, the highest of any ensemble run so far.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Very active 12z GEFS and EPS runs, should see it marked by tomorrow as there are plenty of models developing in 7-day range. Also support on EC HRES and CMC, GFS only one lacking so far but should get onboard soon. GFS, EC HRES and CMC.

https://i.imgur.com/TUFqxCb.png

https://i.imgur.com/0zUvQjp.png

Definitely starting to look like a map you'd expect to see during peak season

[TomballEd]

12z Euro has a strong TS south of PR..

Lunch break. Do you have an image of 500 mb of that TS? I can't see Euro before my lunch ends.

https://i.imgur.com/D01StKy.jpeg

Verbatim, if that survives Hispaniola and Cuba, that could be a Florida threat. Euro ensembles leaning E of Florida, but there several strong to intense (944mb!) perturbations that don't miss Florida.

[cheezyWXguy]

Welcome to the party, 18z gfs. You’re late.

[Stratton23]

And just like that the 18z GFS has a much more compact and developing system approaching the antilles islands, i think the models are finally beginning to resolve the monsoon trough issue

[climateconcernnew]

GFS 18z appears to be a more compact system entering Eastern Caribbean.