2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

skyline385 · #1541 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:42 pm

TUTT gone too

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1545145252272635907

#1542 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:51 pm

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1545146904190668801

skyline385 · #1543 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:03 pm

The one from Andy doesn’t show the full run, not sure why the Atlantic continues to be somewhat in a suppressed state all the way up to late-August in the full run

#1544 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:43 pm

Euro weeklies…. :double:

#1545 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:03 pm

Think NE Caribbean could be a hotspot this year.

#1546 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:12 pm

SFLcane wrote:Think NE Caribbean could be a hotspot this year.

Yeah, I know since May. Starting to prepare here to not get the rush thing.

Teban54 · #1547 Postby **Teban54** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:10 pm

SFLcane wrote:Euro weeklies….

https://i.postimg.cc/9QLRfXz3/8-A70-AB00-AE69-4730-925-F-0-B1-A4-A039-F5-F.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/6pW4w4WL/9-E552-D72-EA85-41-E0-9883-715-BB50-B0828.jpg

That Dorian path... Holy crap.

cheezyWXguy · #1548 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:44 pm

Teban54 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Euro weeklies….

https://i.postimg.cc/9QLRfXz3/8-A70-AB00-AE69-4730-925-F-0-B1-A4-A039-F5-F.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/6pW4w4WL/9-E552-D72-EA85-41-E0-9883-715-BB50-B0828.jpg

That Dorian path... Holy crap.

And the first panel is more like the Dorian what-if path. Good thing this doesn’t count for much on actual storm tracks/intensity, even if it’s a decent indicator

skyline385 · #1549 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:56 pm

TD probability for first week of August on today's EPS weeklies :eek:

#1550 Postby **OuterBanker** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:32 pm

skyline385 wrote:TD probability for first week of August on today's EPS weeklies

https://i.imgur.com/zRPz0Ka.png

An optimistic person would think that there is a 90 to 95 percent chance of no storm in s fla to most of the gulf, an 80 to 90 percent of no storm in eastern carolina.

skyline385 · #1551 Postby **skyline385** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:27 pm

Long range EPS cyclones from today, everything seems to be in play beginning August :darrow:

#1552 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:41 am

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1545339509058985984

skyline385 · #1553 Postby **skyline385** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:17 am

Papin agrees with the discussion from a few days back about ensemble plots blending in too far into the future and missing small length scale details.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1545406657412431873

skyline385 · #1554 Postby **skyline385** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:02 pm

2nd week of August gonna see a ton of waves.

captainbarbossa19 · #1555 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:06 pm

skyline385 wrote:TD probability for first week of August on today's EPS weeklies

https://i.imgur.com/zRPz0Ka.png

Interesting. This run shows a higher threat for the NW Gulf than the western Gulf. That falls in line with the forecast earlier about enhanced TC activity there.

#1556 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:16 pm

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1545453433003581440

#1557 Postby **toad strangler** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1545453433003581440

Well whatever the case, component, driver, cause, etc may be…. It’s Tis The Season for a dusty dry MDR. As it usually is this number on the calendar.

#1558 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:41 pm

Well, 2013 is mentioned. Dont pile on me, go to Webb.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1545531659625193473

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1545534126471593985

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1545536055817826305

skyline385 · #1559 Postby **skyline385** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:Well, 2013 is mentioned. Dont pile on me, go to Webb.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1545531659625193473

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1545534126471593985

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1545536055817826305

Came here post that thread

It is very interesting though regardless of how the season turns out

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1545537934274748419

#1560 Postby **toad strangler** » Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:47 pm

This probably goes hand in hand with climatological normal SAL riddled early to mid summers in the MDR

http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1545507762322526208