TD 10...Back Again

[jasons2k]

see that is the scary part...he WILL be RIGHT on one of these new orleans landfalls...**not saying that this will be it**

Yes, you are exactly right, it will indeed happen someday.

The scary thing is that this storm may have the makings for such a path. You have to get just the right setup for a storm to track NW towards New Orleans, and this may be that kind of setup with the ridge placement.....we'll just have to wait and see....

[rockyman]

Shear is decreasing off the SE coast of Florida...and the center of ex-TD10 should be moving into this area over the next 24 hours:


Also, upper level divergence is looking better:

[jasons2k]

Well, be careful this early, or you might be eating Dixiebreeze's crow buffet

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

I know, just having a little fun. The models don't point to N.O. really at this time, though I never trust them early in the game.

We'll see

I gotcha

I don't trust 'em either, but they've been fairly consistent the past few runs which makes me concerned after days and days of nada this may finally be the real deal

And images above give reason for pause

[cycloneye]

Steve Lyons just said that the Hurricane Hunters will fly into the system tommorow.Let's see in reallity if recon goes depending on how the system looks in the morning.

[tailgater]

A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL CENTER ON THE ATLANTIC...WITH A
CLOSED HIGH AT 500/250 HPA TO CENTER NEAR 33N 65W. THE
LATTER IS INDUCING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT IS
TO ALIGN ALONG 50W TO 25N. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SPINNING
A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS...THAT THEN TRACK WEST UNDER THE
RIDGE TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. IN THIS PATTERN...PER THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...A TUTT LOW CENTERS NEAR 26N 69W. THIS LOW
WILL MIGRATE TO 24N 72W BY 24 HRS. THE LOW WILL START TO
FILL AS IT NEARS 25N 75W BY 48 HRS...WITH AN OPEN TROUGH OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 80W BY 66-72 HRS. A WIND MAXIMA
OF 30-45KT IS EJECTING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHERE IT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION IN
SUPPORT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION...THAT IS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 30 HRS (ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW BY MID
CYCLE)...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 05-15MM/DAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE LOW
THAT CENTERS NEAR 20N 72W PER THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE GFS
FORECASTS THIS LOW TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA BY 24 HRS...
THEN NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 48 HRS...TO CENTER
NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY 72 HRS. OVER
NORTHERN HAITI IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-
15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-50MM THROUGH 36-42 HRS...WHILE
OVER EASTERN CUBA IT WILL FAVOR SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MOST INTENSE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 50-60MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
BY 30-48 HRS...WHILE THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL EXPERIENCE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY 42-66 HRS.


This is from earlier today's NWS Hydrometeorologial prediction center, kinda sounds like the trough is and will induce this system( TD 10). I wish they would have call it TD 12 so this thread could end.

[LAwxrgal]

Well, be careful this early, or you might be eating Dixiebreeze's crow buffet

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

Lemme ask ya a question.

Does Bastardi (just delete the "i" at the end, that seems fair) WANT a hurricane to hit New Orleans?

[cycloneye]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

The above is the TWO of 10:30 PM for ex 10.

[jasons2k]

Well, be careful this early, or you might be eating Dixiebreeze's crow buffet

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

Lemme ask ya a question.

Does Bastardi (just delete the "i" at the end, that seems fair) WANT a hurricane to hit New Orleans?

I really doubt it. I don't know that anyone would unless they were a sicko, but you could email him and ask

[rockyman]

From looking at IR tonight (not the best way to locate a center), it looks like we might have an elongated LLC beginning to form or maybe a trough or maybe even 2 LLCs...Here is my vision:



Fire away!

[gkrangers]

Your LLC on the right is where SSD made their 2345z estimate. (more or less)

There could be a circulation there. Rather difficult to tell at night tho...Shortwave IR floater would be nice...

[Typhoon_Willie]

I was thinking maybe around 22.5 north 76 west myself there. In any case here is an IR loop.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[deltadog03]

Well, be careful this early, or you might be eating Dixiebreeze's crow buffet

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

Lemme ask ya a question.

Does Bastardi (just delete the "i" at the end, that seems fair) WANT a hurricane to hit New Orleans?

Its getting really aggrivating that everyone bashes on him and says...oh, bastardi wants a cane to NO....NO he dosn't....why would you bring that up...he NEVER said anything about a landfall...just that he was looking at the 47, i believe cane....man, people...if you don't like him...don't read anything from him...thanks

[tailgater]

I was thinking 23 N 75 w which is pretty along the trough line you pointed out Rocky, may not be at the surface yet.
Happy Hunting

[Stratosphere747]

Well, be careful this early, or you might be eating Dixiebreeze's crow buffet

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

Lemme ask ya a question.

Does Bastardi (just delete the "i" at the end, that seems fair) WANT a hurricane to hit New Orleans?

Its getting really aggrivating that everyone bashes on him and says...oh, bastardi wants a cane to NO....NO he dosn't....why would you bring that up...he NEVER said anything about a landfall...just that he was looking at the 47, i believe cane....man, people...if you don't like him...don't read anything from him...thanks

Delta I think the reason people are giving JB a hard time (including myself) is how insistent he was the Dennis was going to head toward NO, and kept harping on it over and over.

Now he mentions the 47 storm which would be a disaster for NO as well. And yet there is not even a developed storm as of now.

I myself don't read him, but at the same time it is hard to ignore his thoughts when they are brought up...

[deltadog03]

I know...I am sorry for the harsh comments...I know he blows stuff out of the water. But, I still think he is a VERY good met...he has his biases just like ALL mets...I know it seems like he singles out NO but, I really don't think he does...IMO the pattern dosn't seem to, atleast me, favor a NO...to me this could ride all the way to the western gulf. But, sorry for the harsh remarks...not meant directly to anyone

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wonder who will become a depression first? 97L or Ex-td 10. Ex 10 looks like a sheared system/mess tonight. With maybe a LLC around 22 north/73...We will see but 97L looks like if it can just get some covnection it a shoe in.

[Stratosphere747]

I know...I am sorry for the harsh comments...I know he blows stuff out of the water. But, I still think he is a VERY good met...he has his biases just like ALL mets...I know it seems like he singles out NO but, I really don't think he does...IMO the pattern dosn't seem to, atleast me, favor a NO...to me this could ride all the way to the western gulf. But, sorry for the harsh remarks...not meant directly to anyone

Nothing wrong with defending JB at all. I'm sure in the end that most everyone only uses JB as a alternative view and sticks with the NHC for the final product so to say.

[chadtm80]

What are the models seeing that makes them curve the storm to the South at the end of the run?

[skysummit]

I know...I am sorry for the harsh comments...I know he blows stuff out of the water. But, I still think he is a VERY good met...he has his biases just like ALL mets...I know it seems like he singles out NO but, I really don't think he does...IMO the pattern dosn't seem to, atleast me, favor a NO...to me this could ride all the way to the western gulf. But, sorry for the harsh remarks...not meant directly to anyone

Nothing wrong with defending JB at all. I'm sure in the end that most everyone only uses JB as a alternative view and sticks with the NHC for the final product so to say.

I like to hear his point of view, however, I do usually go with the NHC at the end though.

[clfenwi]

What are the models seeing that makes them curve the storm to the South at the end of the run?

Keep in mind that all of the models that curve the storm to the south use the GFS to determine the steering flow. Because of that the potential answer lies there.

It appears to me that the GFS sets up a fairly large area of mid-upper level anticyclonic circulation to the north of the storm, such that by the middle of the forecast period the predominant flow across the storm is from the northeast, which would push the storm to the southwest.