2015 Global model runs discussion

[jlauderdal]

Sooooo basically the Gfs went from consistently showing a florida hit on 20/21 october to now drifting N or NE in the EGOM on the 26th october? Yeah....ok


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Welcome to the gfs outside of 72 hours... That model has a sofla bias like no other

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[blp]

One thing that looks certain is that the MJO will be moving into the region of the EPAC and NW Carribean as predicted by both the Euro and GFS and that has not changed. There will be upward motion and activity.

We are talking about model projections about the strength of a Trough/Ridge 10 days out.

We are in October which tends to produce stronger troughs. Shear is forecast to be favorable.

What I see is that even if it forms in the EPAC the troughs will create enough influence for a Northerly to NE component of motion so if not one trough then another. The key will be where does the genesis occur which will influence the strength of whatever develops but I think something is going to get pulled up.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, the 18Z GEFS has about 3 fewer EPAC geneses/3 more W Carib geneses as of early 10/20 vs the 12Z GEFS. Whereas the chances of a W Carib genesis clearly took a hit as a result of the 12Z GFS/GEFS/Euro and strong Niño climo is in itself a negative factor, high confidence on the final result is obviously still a ways out, especially considering mid Oct W Carib climo.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png

[gatorcane]

Interestingly, the 18Z GEFS has about 3 fewer EPAC geneses/3 more W Carib geneses as of early 10/20 vs the 12Z GEFS. Whereas the chances of a W Carib genesis clearly took a hit as a result of the 12Z GFS/GEFS/Euro and strong Niño climo is in itself a negative factor, high confidence on the final result is obviously still a ways out, especially considering mid Oct W Carib climo.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png

Yes the GFS Ensembles are less in the EPAC and more in the NW Caribbean:

[blp]

Interestingly, the 18Z GEFS has about 3 fewer EPAC geneses/3 more W Carib geneses as of early 10/20 vs the 12Z GEFS. Whereas the chances of a W Carib genesis clearly took a hit as a result of the 12Z GFS/GEFS/Euro and strong Niño climo is in itself a negative factor, high confidence on the final result is obviously still a ways out, especially considering mid Oct W Carib climo.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png

Yes the GFS Ensembles are less in the EPAC and more in the NW Caribbean:

[]http://i.imgur.com/Cq7K1oE.png[/img]

I am interested in the Parallel Ensembles later tonight. That one has been less bullish since the beginning on the NW Carribean. Lets see if shifts as well.

[blp]

I think all this flip flopping in the Ensembles might just indicate a moonsonal gyre type origin which covers both the NW Carribean and parts of the EPAC. Maybe the models are just having difficulty pinpointing the genesis.

I would not be surprised to see another flip tonight.

[Hammy]

I think all this flip flopping in the Ensembles might just indicate a moonsonal gyre type origin which covers both the NW Carribean and parts of the EPAC. Maybe the models are just having difficulty pinpointing the genesis.

I would not be surprised to see another flip tonight.

Is this fairly common this time of year for the Caribbean? It's been awhile since we've had anything in the western Caribbean and I don't recall pre-genesis runs.

[gatorcane]

I think all this flip flopping in the Ensembles might just indicate a moonsonal gyre type origin which covers both the NW Carribean and parts of the EPAC. Maybe the models are just having difficulty pinpointing the genesis.

I would not be surprised to see another flip tonight.

Yep agreed. Also, most of the GFS ensembles just don't agree with the operational. When that happens, often times you can see the operational flip back to what the majority of the ensembles are showing in the following run.

[blp]

I think all this flip flopping in the Ensembles might just indicate a moonsonal gyre type origin which covers both the NW Carribean and parts of the EPAC. Maybe the models are just having difficulty pinpointing the genesis.

I would not be surprised to see another flip tonight.

Is this fairly common this time of year for the Caribbean? It's been awhile since we've had anything in the western Caribbean and I don't recall pre-genesis runs.

That area of the basin is tricky for several reasons. Steering Currents can easily breakdown and systems can linger. Also genesis can be close to land complicating the forecast and then you have usually the highest SST and THCP in basin which can lead to rapid intensification. In my opinion that is one of tougher areas for the models.

Mixed bag historically.

I remember with Wilma the models were very good even back then with the pickup and turn because the trough was strong. They showed it many days in advance. What they failed was on the strength heading to Florida since they thought conditions would poor in gulf. What saved Florida was that Wilma spent time over the Yucatan allowing it to weaken.

05 Stan did not follow the script dove SW stronger ridge than expected.

98 Mitch was a nightmare did not got picked up like the models said and went South no model predicted that.

[floridasun78]

if we start see storm form sw carribean when model show storm forming that area? right now it cloud less

[gatorcane]

Bottom-line is that the ECMWF has a lot more ridging late this coming week over the Central and Western Caribbean which causes all of the convection and moisture to get pushed into Central America. The model was showing all of this ridging just a couple of days ago and seems to have gone back to that.

However, if the ECMWF goes back to showing less ridging across the Central and Western Caribbean in the 00Z run, I am pretty sure it is going to go back to showing a cyclone in the NW Caribbean heading north as it did in the Fri. 12Z run and Sat 00Z run.

[CourierPR]

NASA GEO-5 model shows a system in NW Caribbean pulling together at 120 hours and a 992 mb storm heading through the Yucatan Channel at 240 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

NASA GEO-5 model shows a system in NW Caribbean pulling together at 120 hours and a 992 mb storm heading through the Yucatan Channel at 240 hours.

Could I see an image?

[CourierPR]

NASA GEO-5 model shows a system in NW Caribbean pulling together at 120 hours and a 992 mb storm heading through the Yucatan Channel at 240 hours.

Could I see an image?

I saw it on Weather Underground under Dr. Masters' blog comments. It was a post by Skyepony a few hours ago.

[Hurricaneman]

the0zGFS has this going into Central America as of 162hrs, seems to be a consensus on that now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

NASA GEO-5 model shows a system in NW Caribbean pulling together at 120 hours and a 992 mb storm heading through the Yucatan Channel at 240 hours.

Could I see an image?

Here you go:
http://i57.tinypic.com/ddz76f.png

[Alyono]

192 hours it has something in the NW Caribbean

[Hurricaneman]

192 hours it has something in the NW Caribbean

After traveling over Houndoras before that

[LarryWx]

As HM states, it has some land interaction before then. Also, the timeframe of it moving toward FL is slipping, which is a red flag for a phantom. It had been hitting FL or nearby ~10/21. Now it is sitting through 0Z 10/21 in the NW Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: As HM states, it has some land interaction before then. Also, the timeframe of it moving toward FL is slipping, which is a red flag for a phantom. It had been hitting FL or nearby ~10/21. Now it is sitting through 0Z 10/21 in the NW Caribbean.

But that would indicate that all the models have a phantom storm which makes the models almost useless beyond 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products