2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

Alex and Andy reply to Webb.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1545541508354416641

[Category5Kaiju]

Can't remember exactly who it was, but several weeks ago when we were getting AOIs in late June, somebody pointed out that such hardly resembled 2013 due to how moist and vigorous the MDR was in terms of convection, let alone the robust waves that were being spit out of Africa. That person pointed out how 2013 seemed to have an unusually dry MDR during that timeframe.

[weeniepatrol]

Yep there it is; here we go must be July.

Not even remotely comparable to 2013. Two weeks; two weeks of ridging and here comes the barrage of 2013 this 2013 that after eight consecutive seasons of these comparisons falling flat on their ass. Remind me again the definition of insanity?

[weeniepatrol]

It's always amusing that these posts only pop up during the regularly scheduled lull. How many times does it have to be reiterated - climatologically, June + July constitute six percent of Atlantic ACE. Six. percent.

It is 8 July.

[cycloneye]

It's always amusing that these posts only pop up during the regularly scheduled lull. How many times does it have to be reiterated - climatologically, June + July constitute six percent of Atlantic ACE. Six. percent.

It is 8 July.

Agree. The downcasters never appear in ASO.

[weeniepatrol]

It's always amusing that these posts only pop up during the regularly scheduled lull. How many times does it have to be reiterated - climatologically, June + July constitute six percent of Atlantic ACE. Six. percent.

It is 8 July.

Agree. The downcasters never appear in ASO.

Exactly!!!

If things are dead as a doornail by September, OK good comparison, post it. Barely the second week of July? LOL

Also, July is climatologically the month with strongest Atlantic ridging:

And you're telling me that the pressure gradient formed by said strong ridging has cooled off portions of the Canary Current? Oh man, what's the next divine revelation. Water makes things wet? The sun rises in the east?

[skyline385]

It's always amusing that these posts only pop up during the regularly scheduled lull. How many times does it have to be reiterated - climatologically, June + July constitute six percent of Atlantic ACE. Six. percent.

It is 8 July.

Agree. The downcasters never appear in ASO.

Exactly!!!

If things are dead as a doornail by September, OK good comparison, post it. Barely the second week of July? LOL

Also, July is climatologically the month with strongest Atlantic ridging:

https://imgur.com/gEswCgm

And you're telling me that the pressure gradient formed by said strong ridging has cooled off portions of the Canary Current? Oh man, what's the next divine revelation. Water makes things wet? The sun rises in the east?

I dont think anyone was being serious with the downcasting, they are just having a discussion because there is nothing going on in the Atlantic right now even the threads here have been dead the last few days

[weeniepatrol]

Agree. The downcasters never appear in ASO.

Exactly!!!

If things are dead as a doornail by September, OK good comparison, post it. Barely the second week of July? LOL

Also, July is climatologically the month with strongest Atlantic ridging:

https://imgur.com/gEswCgm

And you're telling me that the pressure gradient formed by said strong ridging has cooled off portions of the Canary Current? Oh man, what's the next divine revelation. Water makes things wet? The sun rises in the east?

I dont think anyone was being serious with the downcasting, they are just having a discussion because there is nothing going on in the Atlantic right now even the threads here have been dead the last few days

Wasn't referring to Andy or Eric. There are many on wxtwitter and in the discords who are very completely serious. Can expect the number to grow in the coming weeks too

Andy has owned it as an inside joke and Eric provided the necessary nuance

[SoupBone]

Someone explain "downcasting" to me. All I see are people posting opposing views on weather patterns, some that have credentials that would classify them as subject matter experts. But when someone suggests a season that isn't like 2005, here come the attacks. It gets old here.

[weeniepatrol]

Someone explain "downcasting" to me. All I see are people posting opposing views on weather patterns, some that have credentials that would classify them as subject matter experts. But when someone suggests a season that isn't like 2005, here come the attacks. It gets old here.

The issue was never about saying a season won't be like 2005

[Hammy]

Someone explain "downcasting" to me. All I see are people posting opposing views on weather patterns, some that have credentials that would classify them as subject matter experts. But when someone suggests a season that isn't like 2005, here come the attacks. It gets old here.

A lot of people are feast to famine with their takes--as soon as it's clear we won't have another 2005, it automatically means we'll have another 2013 (an this is the case every single season during July and often the first half of August before activity picks up)

So it's not really opposing views on weather patterns but more of a kneejerk reaction and essentially impatience. Though some of it appears to be tongue in cheek.

[skyline385]

Someone explain "downcasting" to me. All I see are people posting opposing views on weather patterns, some that have credentials that would classify them as subject matter experts. But when someone suggests a season that isn't like 2005, here come the attacks. It gets old here.

I agree, these are experts having a discussion here and everyone could learn from them. There is nothing wrong with looking at both sides of the forecasts, not every discussion should be a doomsday scenario imo.

[OuterBanker]

Just a quick question. Is the WAM always this active this time of year. If it is as active as now with a favorable MJO and low SAL I don't even want to think about the possibilities.

[zzh]

Just a quick question. Is the WAM always this active this time of year. If it is as active as now with a favorable MJO and low SAL I don't even want to think about the possibilities.

There are other factors...

[skyline385]

Just a quick question. Is the WAM always this active this time of year. If it is as active as now with a favorable MJO and low SAL I don't even want to think about the possibilities.

Its off to a particularly strong start, Phil talks about it in the forecast

[weeniepatrol]

Is the WAM always this active this time of year.

No, of course not.

[SFLcane]

Ok some are going from hyperactive to 2013 in 24 hrs. I suggest you follow official sources as Phil k who has been doing this for 30 years. It’s not going to be another 2013

[skyline385]

Ok some are going from hyperactive to 2013 in 24 hrs. I suggest you follow official sources as Phil k who has been doing this for 30 years. It’s not going to be another 2013

No one is doing that

[SFLcane]

Ok some are going from hyperactive to 2013 in 24 hrs. I suggest you follow official sources as Phil k who has been doing this for 30 years. It’s not going to be another 2013

No one is doing that

The cooling of the Canary Current is noticeable but it’s not going to be another 2013.

[AtlanticWind]

Ok some are going from hyperactive to 2013 in 24 hrs. I suggest you follow official sources as Phil k who has been doing this for 30 years. It’s not going to be another 2013

I do agree that a repeat of 2013 would be extremely unlikely, but I do think that unforeseen events
at the peak part of the season can occur that can either dramatically enhance or the suppress the ACE
for that season.
I dont believe pre season forecasts are able to capture all the dynamics that come together a month or two in advance
on what is really just a 10 to 12 week peak season in which most of hurricane activity takes place.
The forecasters at CSU and others always talk of these uncertainties in thier forecasts. That being said
I think we see most indicators point to at least an active season.