2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

18Z GEFS again very active, also shows weakly the next signal behind it similar to the EPS

[Stratton23]

EPS guidance probability on weatherbell has about a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development off the texas coast in the 120-168 or 5-7 day range, thought that might be worth mentioning, some GEFS members starting to sniff this idea out as well, the MDR system will be the big talk for right now , but just wanted to mention this as it’s something that has begun to get my attention a little bit more now

[Hammy]

GFS once again having too much interaction going on, starts developing the early September wave only to have it absorbed by a tropical storm it develops over Africa

[aspen]

There seems to be decent operational and ensemble support for two more possible systems after the AOI, the first of which coming from a wave that emerges off of Africa in about 4-5 days. All the global runs show both waves, with maybe some development on the ICON.

[aspen]

06z GFS kills all 3 waves in the monsoon trough.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS kills all 3 waves in the monsoon trough.

One run, lets see how it goes but the modeling has been suspect all season.

[WaveBreaking]

06z GEFS slightly more enthused with the first wave than the 00z run, with more intense members overall. Trailing wave members are more concentrated with a slight shift in track. There also seems to be a signal for a third wave just off the coast, but the 06z run isn’t finished yet.

00z


06z

[NDG]

Both the GFS and Euro have backed away some from development in the central Atlantic and eastern Caribbean, even their ensembles have less support than previous runs.
The 20% highlight the NHC is being generous unless global models start trending again towards development within the next 7 days. Crazy that we are 2 weeks from the peak of the season and there's really no strong persistent signal that the Atlantic will wake up before then. I hope this doesn't mean that we will have a relatively busy October and early November like some previous seasons because conditions for the most part are favorable and forecasted to stay favorable.

[skyline385]

Both the GFS and Euro have backed away some from development in the central Atlantic and eastern Caribbean, even their ensembles have less support than previous runs.
The 20% highlight the NHC is being generous unless global models start trending again towards development within the next 7 days. Crazy that we are 2 weeks from the peak of the season and there's really no strong persistent signal that the Atlantic will wake up before then. I hope this doesn't mean that we will have a relatively busy October and early November like some previous seasons because conditions for the most part are favorable and forecasted to stay favorable.

20% is fine looking at ensemble support, the NHC AOI represents only a chance at TC formation and there are more than enough members in 7-day range to warrant it

[WaveBreaking]

06z EPS continues decent support for both waves, but it also has a signal for the wave in the gulf in under 5 days.

[Stratton23]

GEFS 12z growing in support for something to develop off the texas coast

[Teban54]

12z GFS develops a wave that exits Africa on 8/31, after the yellow AOI.

Edit: This wave was on operational GFS for a few runs before, albeit inconsistently. Also some support from GEFS.

[Stormcenter]

I’m just going to go say these models are either out to lunch this season when it comes to potential development
or this is going to be one the biggest blown hurricane
forecast ever by the NHC and the others who predicted
a very busy season. IMO

[Frank P]

Didn't want to create a new topic on the latest vis sat loop image of the gulf, and not sure where to put this, but the GOM is a little disturbed today and one area that seems interesting is the circulation SW of Panama City in the NE GOM. No model support but anything circulating CCW in the GOM is worth watching... If it were to bring some much-needed rain to the NGOM it would be welcomed for sure.

[Stratton23]

CPC global hazard outlook from noaa now has a new hatched zone for development from the yucatan- southern gulf during the first week of september

[Stormlover70]

Just looks like thunderstorm cluster moving west. Can you point the circulation out?

[Stormlover70]

CPC global hazard outlook from noaa now has a new hatched zone for development from the yucatan- southern gulf during the first week of september

graphic?

[Stratton23]

Stormlover70 I still havent figured out how to post pictures on here, but if you search up global tropical hazard outlook noaa, it should pop up right away

[SFLcane]

CPC global hazard outlook from noaa now has a new hatched zone for development from the yucatan- southern gulf during the first week of september

graphic?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /index.php

[Steve]

Just looks like thunderstorm cluster moving west. Can you point the circulation out?

The circulation is around Austin. The Gulf moisture is a combination from some of the leftover energy associated with the Gulf trough from last week along some of the energy from the wave that was in the Bahamas several days ago interacting with counterclockwise flow around an upper low moving through Texas (which was the trough split last weekend). ICON modeled this well several days ago but it was too aggressive with development there (doesn't mean something won't spin up off the TX Coast in the next 5-7 days though) if this energy doesn't follow the upper low (or if other energy can pile up offshore there). The ICON basically had the first spin that moved across the Gulf this past weekend just going into Texas followed by another cluster that stayed just offshore and developed. Energy is moving into that area, but like I said, development prog then was for this upcoming Sunday. I guess that's still 5 days out so there is a chance

Here's the run from Saturday 12z that depicts what it thought would happen.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2412&fh=96

And at 500mb where you can see the trough split near FL/GA, back west across the Gulf into Texas (where we are now) and then development from remaining energy and the other wave propagating. The 500 vort shows it all very clearly and then below that is the current Satellite loop (WV) which shows how it played out which was fairly close to the prognosis.

500 vort (Saturday 12z run)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=180

Satellite (current)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid