Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[gatorcane]

Overall the GFS thinks something, albeit weak, will develop in the SW Caribbean move up through the NW Caribbean and move out to the NE.....

Let's see if the consistency continues or whether the GFS will eventually just lose this system. It's still almost a week out so anything can happen. It does remind me a little bit like last year with Barry.

[gatorcane]

Here is the GFS showing this low over South Florida moving NNE. Notice it also is developing a low in the EPAC as well.

[NDG]

I guess that initially a high shear environment due to a trough settling in the Caribbean early next week will help the gfs ghost storm get going, with a ridge building in the eastern Caribbean after that will help alleviate the shear a little, but still be in a shear environment overall, so it could be the typical sheared & weak early tropical system if it comes true.

[KWT]

Yep that may well be the case. It seems there aren't that many systems that track similar to the system the GFS system because most of them developed a little further east close to the Yucatan, Abby 1968 for example may be similar in the 1st part of the path but that formed further NW as well.

I still want the ECm on board first with this system before I beocme more interested in it.

[gatorcane]

I think the NWS Miami is finally hinting at this tropical low the GFS is forecasting to possibly impact South Florida. What do you think?

Snippet from the 220pm TWD:

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDING THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SUNDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH CONTINUING
ABOVE CLIMO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALLIGATOR
ALLEY SOUTH, BUT DRYING OUT NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. BACK TO A
SPRING AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MODERATING WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ATLANTIC WATER TEMPERATURE IS CLOSE TO 80, SO EXPECT
ONSHORE MOVING MARINE LAYER SHOWERS ANYTIME BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY.

EVEN FARTHER OUT, THE GFS IS HINTING AT A MUCH WETTER PERIOD OF
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING THURSDAY BUT MUCH CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN

[KWT]

Whats interesting is the ECM is showing some sort of weak disturbance now in the SW Caribbean that tracks in a very similar way to that of the 12z GFS. It doesn't make anything of it but of course the fact it does show more of a disturbance then any of its other runs recently just make things just a tiny bit more interesting given the GFS showing a similar set-up.

[NDG]

Yeah euro has been hinting something similar to the gfs to that of a weak low pressure formation but on the e-pac side, track northward across C.A. into the NW Caribbean or southern GOM on its long range, but I really do not look much at Euro when it comes to any hints of tropical development, most times it does very poor.

[KWT]

Yep though to be fair it may just be because we haven't got a higher resolution version of that model?

Anyway its interesting that both the GFS and the ECM are agreeing at least on some sort of disturbance present.

[flwxwatcher]

Yep though to be fair it may just be because we haven't got a higher resolution version of that model?

Anyway its interesting that both the GFS and the ECM are agreeing at least on some sort of disturbance present.

Yep.. todays 12Z EURO is now hinting at possible development in the long range in the Western Caribbean and the GFS has now for several runs been showing development. I still am in will believe it when I see it mode.

[KWT]

Yep I'm still all that certain about it though to be fair the GFS has been very confident of this set-up occuring...now we just need the CMC onboard

[Vortex]

NWS Miami 5/22 230 pm now mentions GFS rain chances for south florida in extended. I think next week at this time the board will be abuzz!!


EVEN FARTHER OUT, THE GFS IS HINTING AT A MUCH WETTER PERIOD OF
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING THURSDAY BUT MUCH CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami 5/22 230 pm now mentions GFS rain chances for south florida in extended. I think next week at this time the board will be abuzz!!

I have a topic on this already

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101068

[cycloneye]

5/22/08 18z GFS at 96 Hours In this 18z run,it all starts on day 4.

18z GFS at 120 Hours

[Eyewall]

The fact that the GFS had been this consistent for so long and now other computer modles are coming into agreement with the gfs means we could see a tropical storm in the gulf on June first or on the second. Where does in look like this potential storm is heading and what about strength. I know the computer modles have been all over the place not to mention they never have a good handle on the strengh of stormes. This could be the start of an early hurricane season.

[Ivanhater]

Been stuck on 120 for a while now...

[KWT]

Yep its certainly looking interesting, esp given this run closes off the low far earlier then any other run I've seen so far. I think its a good deal progressive but once again its been progging development and it won't be long before it gets into the timescale where we can actually look at the sat.pics and make our own judgements.

[Vortex]

as we await the outcome of the 18z GFS...

If the GFS continues with its development for a few more runs in the 3-5 day range I think the chance for pre-season development become a "real" possibility. I would also expect some of the other models begin to join the GFS camp over the next 24-48 hours.

[Ivanhater]

Blah! I feel like it's August refreshing the model page and it's stuck!

[cycloneye]

Been stuck on 120 for a while now...

Still stucked.

[KWT]

Yep I do wish it would get a move on, its nearly 12.00am over here in the UK now!

Well Vortex the key is to get the other models onboard, the GFS may well have been presistant but it could well be presistantly wrong...