Long Range Models

[stormchazer]

*Sigh*, I was hoping the new page filled with posts was going to be on-topic, not on the same thing that has been posted over 300 times alone within the last 2 months now.

It's almost as exciting as the thread where 90% of its posts are "Cut & Paste's" of the NWS Tropical Weather Discussion. Like we need that.

"Sigh" I was hoping the last post would be about the Long Range Models and not critiques about the value of post in this thread.

Seriously there is some value looking at the model runs during the slow times as we are getting a good indication of possible trends when things get juiced up. A likely active CV season appears probable with hopefully long tracking fish storms to watch and learn from ( Turning just short of the Antilles and missing Bermuda).

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0z GFS scenario for this upcoming wave/low seems MUCH more believable IMO. Instead of bombing this system right off Africa, it develops the system much more slowly and keeps it fairly weak. Eventually, the model brings the system toward the northern islands as a wave in the 300+ hour timeframe. Behind this first wave, there also appears to be a couple more contenders for future development as well. By hour 240 the GFS is already spitting the next strong system off the African coast and it also looks quite impressive. This kind of pattern (if it indeed sets up) definitely helps add fire to the idea that July could wind up being a somewhat interesting month in the Atlantic basin. We shall see what happens..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

CMC also showing this strong wave

[Meso]

This mornings 06z GFS run is starting to show the wave emerging at 84 hours (less than 4 days) and then developing a low by 96 hours.

96 Hour GFS Wave developing low
120 Hour GFS Deepening rapidly to 1007mb
168 Hour GFS Wave deepened to 1005 mb and moving NW
216 Hour GFS Weakens a bit,with fairly strong ridge to the North
300 Hour GFS System moves NNW (Though very far out forecast)

[Meso]

One again the GFS moved the date of the emerging wave closer.Now only 3 days away?

150 Hour GFS

[dwg71]

IMO its too early to be looking for anything that far out in the Atlantic. I know there have been early CV storms, but they are pretty rare.

Lets enjoy the peace and quiet.

[Meso]

Nah... Peace and quiet to me is boredom and frustration. Give me storms,I'm here to track.
Anyway...


252 Hours

384 Hour

[Frank2]

Whatever weak low pressure forms by 252 hours weakens into a few weak tropical waves by 384 hours - a big departure from yesterday's maps - really, these long-range maps are of little use, since they change from run to run to run...

[Meso]

Frank2 : What has changed? It's always showed a it weakening lots as it progresses NW.And it's had a pressure difference of like 4mb max.. That's pretty consistant. And we all know exactly how inaccurate they are.. hence my GIANT disclaimer on the front page of this thread.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still think it is almost pointless running the GFS out to 2 weeks with the resolution cut in half at 180 hours, especially when I've seen enough AFDs to know a lot of pro-mets think the GFS is more prone that it should be to grid scale feedback issues at time periods under 180 hours.

[Meso]

That depends what your purpose in watching the models is. If you are looking at it only if there is a high chance of tropical formation then obviously.. if you are looking cause you may be in the path of something,then obviously (It's not secret that models aren't accurate far out)... But when one enjoys tracking every slight possibility and activity in the tropics as a hobby well then it's fun and I've seen numerous times when it has been right far out.It's one of those "don't look if you don't like" situations.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That depends what your purpose in watching the models is. If you are looking at it only if there is a high chance of tropical formation then obviously.. if you are looking cause you may be in the path of something,then obviously (It's not secret that models aren't accurate far out)... But when one enjoys tracking every slight possibility and activity in the tropics as a hobby well then it's fun and I've seen numerous times when it has been right far out.It's one of those "don't look if you don't like" situations.

I think it'd be more useful if it were run like the Euro, just 10 days, but at full resolution.


They could still run the ensembles out to two weeks, since if one is just looking for trends that suggest activity may be developing, that should be enough.

[Meso]

12z CMC starting to lign up a little bit with the GFS,just weaker

[cycloneye]

Here is what GFS and other models are latching on by next week.In the circule is the impulse of convection in the middle of Africa.

[KWT]

Well the GFS has been consistant with this set-up, of course it can be consitantly wrong it has to be said but we shall see. We can see the wave being developed by the GFS though its still a little while away yet. We shall see!

[cycloneye]

Here goes the 18z GFS at 72 hours:



90 hours



102 hours



114 hours



132 hours



144 hours



174 hours



252 hours

I advanced the run for all to see that the model keeps the low now moving more NW at 252 hours.

348 hours

Low is gone after 300 hours,but a parade emerges Africa.

384 hours

For what its worth,a new low shows up south of the CV islands at 384 hours.

[KWT]

Still developing a weak low with this wave, of course should be noted that despite having a closed circulation it doesn't have to be a tropical cyclone, could just be termed a tropical low.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like the Canadian model is picking up on this feature as well..

GFS initializes it as a warm core system.

The euro has an disorganized low at 144 hours.

[Eyewall]

If this is the start of the cv season get your vacation plans ready for the rest of the summer.

[Eyewall]

When is this wave coming off of Africa according to the gfs is it tomorrow.