Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[Blown Away]

right over the county guinea-bissau

Sorry my geography is not that good, Lat/Long please?

[Meso]

There seems to be a decent amount of moisture to the North East of the system which could potentially protect it from future SAL and may moisten up the environment a little bit.Not likely to cause a vast amount of difference but would aid to development instead of hinder.


Here is the 12z GFS run


Nothing significant but still shows the low progressing westwards

[Aric Dunn]

right over the county guinea-bissau

Sorry my geography is not that good, Lat/Long please?

about 11.6n 15.1w

about ..

[Aric Dunn]

well the grid is such on this image that plotting a very accurate position is hard since you have to eye ball it cause the lat and long are in increments of 10 that and its not very close up. so i circled it

[alienstorm]

It could be my eyes, but it seems to be moving northward, on the other hand it could be consolidating and it looks like a northward movement.

[Aric Dunn]

It could be my eyes, but it seems to be moving northward, on the other hand it could be consolidating and it looks like a northward movement.

yeah it is actually .. some of the models called for it to do this but should turn back west

[abajan]

Actually, the area ahead of it centered near 8N 33W looks kinda interesting too. Probably just some blossoming of the ITC but at least it's something else to watch in the current lull!

[RL3AO]

ABNT20 KNHC 291733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/291733.shtml

[cycloneye]

2 PM Discussion from TPC:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 16W/17W
SOUTH OF 18N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 11N17W. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[bvigal]

Actually, the area ahead of it centered near 8N 33W looks kinda interesting too. Probably just some blossoming of the ITC but at least it's something else to watch in the current lull!

I'm with you, Bajan! That thing just developed a really good spin in the last couple of sat pics!!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ft.html
Ha, and last night I said call me when it gets to 10N 30W!!! I didn't mean something should just CROP UP there, LOL!!

[frederic79]

I noticed that, too. I'll be curious to see if it persists with time. It's a fairly low latitude and has some SAL to deal with but who knows?

[cheezyWXguy]

2 PM Discussion from TPC:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 16W/17W
SOUTH OF 18N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 11N17W. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

sounds like the TWO and TWD are written by 2 different people...

[RL3AO]

sounds like the TWO and TWD are written by 2 different people...

They are. Usually the TWO is written by one of the hurricane specialists and the TWD is written by one of the TAFB mets.

[tolakram]

TWO ... FORECASTER BLAKE

TWD ... FORMOSA

Yes.

[cycloneye]

The latest pic at 5 PM EDT:

[BigA]

Impressive blowup of convection on northern side...but it's moving at a snail's pace.

[OURAGAN]

Look really good!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes it is looking good.

EUMETSAT DUST. Cool thing about this is that you can see where the dry are and dust is in the picture.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/DerivedProducts/MSG2/DUST/WESTERNAFRICA/index.htm

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008

<snip>
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT WITH A
1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE BASED ON THE MIMIC-TPW. A MID LEVEL
ROTATION IS JUST TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 17W-19W.
</snip>

$$
WALLACE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/292336.shtml?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 292351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...NEAR
DAKAR SENEGAL...IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/