Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[JonathanBelles]

hopefully this wont come to play, but its looking more and more like the cards are being dealt.

[Ivanhater]

Might be an invest as early as tomorrow, I will probably stay up for the Euro

[cycloneye]

I know I will have looong days ahead but I will stay up until the 2 AM TWO is released to see if NHC starts to mention it.

Cycloneye, if this run verifies you would get a double whammy.

First strike...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

Second strike...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

I guess it is only one run so no need to worry just yet, but I bet you will up for the 06Z run.

No,I will be on bed as the 06z comes out.I only pay much more attention to the 00z and 12z runs as the as those have more data.

[canetracker]

00z CMC shows it too:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008080900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[blp]

I know I will have looong days ahead but I will stay up until the 2 AM TWO is released to see if NHC starts to mention it.

Cycloneye, if this run verifies you would get a double whammy.

First strike...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

Second strike...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

I guess it is only one run so no need to worry just yet, but I bet you will up for the 06Z run.

No,I will be on bed as the 06z comes out.I only pay much more attention to the 00z and 12z runs as the as those have more data.

I agree the 00Z and 12Z have better data. Interesting days ahead....

[Kerry04]

Might be an invest as early as tomorrow, I will probably stay up for the Euro

What time does the Euro comes out?

[cycloneye]

2 AM EDT Discussion:

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 11N31W 9N34W 7N43W 9N57W
9N62W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 14W-20W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... scussions/

[blp]

NOGAPS still not onboard with this. In my opinion, NOGAPS has not been very good this year with cyclogensis.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=180

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO-2am CDT

I never get worked up on seeing a "system" work my way 2 weeks out. I find it better to see it closer now (2 wks out) then something forecasted my way 2 days out....

I have this gut feeling that the GOM will be full of crap the next two months and the EGOM will take some off the WGOM's hands.

BTW..Someone posted last week that nogaps has been good so who knows...To each is own opinion.

[AtlanticWind]

UKMET

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

CMC is NOT showing the long-tracker

It is showing the second storm from the GFS run

[Derek Ortt]

the big one (lead system) in the GFS is likely a phantomcane

the one behind it has decent model support

[Ed Mahmoud]

My personal take, prior to 180, with the GFS showing two cyclones, with one getting close to the Caribbean, I'd take that kind of seriously, as the GFS seems to have been doing fairly well on predicting systems this year. But going beyond that and getting worked up over possible targets in the US, very, very premature.


Don't know if they are close enough to Fujiwara each other, but the trailing system, besides maybe blocking SAL from behind, may also induce a more Westerly/less Northerly steering on the lead system, due to its mid-level low and the circulation around it.


But no sense picking the Gulf or Florida, and while I'd be somewhat nervous in the Caribbean, still a week out, and at this distance only a small error in predicted track could take this safely North of the islands, maybe even far enough North to get recurved safely away from land.

[Ed Mahmoud]

the big one (lead system) in the GFS is likely a phantomcane

the one behind it has decent model support

The GFS's sharp wave, between Hispaniola and Cuba at 180 hours, was predicted by the 12Z Canadian to be a closed tropical low approaching the Northeast Caribbean.


For some reason, the Canadian didn't update on the PSU e-Wall, and they show the 0Z Canadian to 180 hours. Until I saw that, I didn't even know the 0Z Canadian ran to 180 hours.


Of course, recent Canadian runs have developed extraordinarily deep (for Summer) lows on the front off the mid-Atlantic, deep enough I suspect the Canadian was predicting sub-tropical development. At least the current 0Z run available at the FSU page seems to have backed off on those.


AccuWX PPV 12Z Japanese Global on 15 August at 12Z with one tropical low (either not intense or low graphic resolution, or low model resolution) near San Maarten, and another tropical low at about 12ºN, 45ºW.

[blp]

00Z EURO picking up on it.


240hr over Puerto Rico. Same timeframe as 00Z GFS.

[KWT]

Once again the biggest question will be how strong the Bermuda high is at the times and also how quickly the feature gets better organised...certainly is a lot of model support for development of a tropical cyclone in the E.Atlantic.

[Meso]

06z GFS @ 48 hours..

Megalows.

96 Hours

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

06z GFS at 156 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

06z GFS at 216 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif It crosses the Leewards and is just NE of Puerto Rico.

Here is the complete 06z GFS loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The first system,after it crosses the Leewards and moving close to Puerto Rico,makes a recurving track without touching any land in the East Coast of the U.S..In other words a change from the 00z run in terms of track.Then in fantasy land (over 300 hours) another system threatens the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]