wxman57 wrote:BigA wrote:I guarantee that if this system was identical, but was located 100 miles off the Florida coast the tropical outlook would not say "tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday." I can't really blame the Hurricane Center for this, as they have far better access to information closer to the United States.
That said, its a purely academic matter unless it actually has the potential to become a strong system or threaten land
The difference is that systems typically move off the coast of Africa and weaken within the first 24-48 hours in July, whereas that's not necessarily the case near Florida. And a system near land has the potential to be a threat very quickly. So a system that looks like this near Florida would warrant much greater attention.
Oh, and the convection is decreasing quite rapidly now. I still think it'll be another few weeks before Ana forms. I keep thinking August 8th for some reason...
The western wave at about 37W is flaring up tonight. The GFS has handled this system perfectly so far. As of 18Z, its calling for this wave to hang together and form a surface low while the area behind it fizzles/merges in with this wave.
Although the SAL and subsidence are working to prevent any kind of significant organization, it has not killed it off yet by any means. If the GFS is correct, this is the wave that develops the surface low that tracks generally WNW over the next several days.
