Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

i see spin east of barados on radars from islands

[HURAKAN]

You can't get any closer! There is definitely rotation in the clouds.

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... Sector%208

[Sanibel]

After close observation of the RAMSDIS Floater I'm back on board with this one.

See, that good presentation way back in the Atlantic is always a good indicator.

[fwbbreeze]

i see spin east of barados on radars from islands

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[gatorcane]

well certainly convection is blowing up. This past weekend I did comment it will need to be watched. Has a ways to go though before developing.

[Sanibel]

[KatDaddy]

Is this the tropical wave forecast to be in the SE GOM next weekend? No doubt there is a spin on the satellite.

[NDG]

Is this the tropical wave forecast to be in the SE GOM next weekend? No doubt there is a spin on the satellite.

No, this is not it. This disturbance has no support from any model of making it across the Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

i see spin east of barados on radars from islands

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Tkanks fwbbreeze you can go on this thread to have much more infos from of our carib islanders as Barbados has issued a flooding watch:

Caribsue has post this message: "UPDATE FROM BARBADOS.... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT UNTIL 1400HRS, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1200

[NDG]

40 mph wind gust in Barbados, convection right on top of the island, pressure continues to drop slowly.

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Aug 10, 2009 - 01:00 PM EDTAug 10, 2009 - 12:00 PM CDTAug 10, 2009 - 11:00 AM MDTAug 10, 2009 - 10:00 AM PDTAug 10, 2009 - 09:00 AM ADTAug 10, 2009 - 08:00 AM HDT
2009.08.10 1700 UTC
Wind from the N (350 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT) gusting to 40 MPH (35 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Rain with thunder
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)

[Nimbus]

See, that good presentation way back in the Atlantic is always a good indicator.

By that do you mean the shear from the east has not stripped the convection yet? The NHC does not seem to concerned, although if the shear eases up in the Caribbean it might have a chance. Who has local surface obs? edit: Wonder if the pressure drops below 1013?

[NDG]

This has caught NHC's attention, this is now code yellow:

[Gustywind]

This has caught NHC's attention, this is now code yellow:

Things are heating up with all these colors
000
ABNT20 KNHC 101736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


[color=#FF0000]A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.[/color]

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Code Yellow

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Dean4Storms]

I always worry about these waves that fight on through hostile conditions, they tend to develop rapidly if given the least favorable window.

[wxman57]

Conditions not unfavorable for development next 2 days. Beyond that, shear increases as it moves almost straight west toward Honduras. Won't enter the Gulf. I think it warrants the slight chance NHC gives it.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 1012 mb at Barbados, 3 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

Conditions at: TBPB observed 10 August 2009 18:30 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1012.0 mb)
Winds: from the NNW (330 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 knots; 3.1 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 10000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 900 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 3200 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 10000 feet AGL
Present Weather: TSRA DS (rain associated with thunderstorm(s), duststorm

[Frank2]

I agree, wxman - and both suspect areas are weak systems ATTM, so, back to waiting, for now...

Frank

[floridasun78]

this system could be supprise to all keep eye on it donot but area down because some say their not thing worry their say samething few days ago it still here about like i say this not june or july this aug