Joe Bastardi: 16-18 named storms, top 10 year

[KWT]

I'm not sure you can really compare those years, esp because 2000 was in a multi-year La Nina which tend to end up being average or even slower then normal because the Atlantic really cools down, 2001 was very similar though that was a neutral season, 2002 was an El Nino, and 2003 was pretty similar in terms of systems to at least 1999....

So I'm not sure the arguement that conditions are more favourable really stands up, I'd guess the best conditions range from -0.7C to 0.6C...outside of that range your unlikely to get above say 15 storms...though clearly stronger La Nina's can still do the job as well!

[Blown Away]

JB's logic makes sense, gotta transfer that heat out of the tropics and it's gonna happen through many tropical systems. How often do we see the current North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole?

[southerngale]

Interesting comment on JB's blog this morning. Somehow he got the idea that S2K's official 2010 season forecast is 24-27 named storms:

From JB:
TUESDAY AND NOW, STORM 2K WEIGHS IN!

Another hurricane forecast, as super counterweight to Weather Research with their 8 is now in. Storm 2k has 24-27 storms!

I exchanged emails with him and he apologized and made a correction early that afternoon. Someone started a thread about it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108031

[bvigal]

Does Accuweather/Joe Bastardi have a WRITTEN season forecast, or is it just a compilation of various videos released at different times? I looked at the website, and the "press release" just listed total storms and the picture released in March. It said more information was available at the hurricane page, but there I found no additional information on hurricane season predictions. Does he do an ACE number, #hurricanes vs "storms", etc.? I was wanting to compare his early March predictions to any updates he may have made, also to some of the others released, but seems impossible to quantify. Maybe if I watched him on tv daily, I would know the answer. But he isn't on tv here...

[RL3AO]

Does Accuweather/Joe Bastardi have a WRITTEN season forecast, or is it just a compilation of various videos released at different times? I looked at the website, and the "press release" just listed total storms and the picture released in March. It said more information was available at the hurricane page, but there I found no additional information on hurricane season predictions. Does he do an ACE number, #hurricanes vs "storms", etc.? I was wanting to compare his early March predictions to any updates he may have made, also to some of the others released, but seems impossible to quantify. Maybe if I watched him on tv daily, I would know the answer. But he isn't on tv here...

I'm sure he has a written forecast, you'll just have to pay $25 a month or $250 a year for the professional service.