Wave in Central Caribbean

[KWT]

Oh I do believe it probably should get a code yellow as should the wave around 30W...can't be too long before the NHC do give it a yellow...they probably think because of no model support at all they want to wait longer before going for a code yellow perhaps?

[Steve H.]

I don't think that the NHC cares if they're being an annoyance to storms enthusiasts. That's not in their job description.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think that the NHC cares if they're being an annoyance to storms enthusiasts. That's not in their job description.

haha well said ... although they do have a obligation to provide information if the public feels there is a threat... problem is the enthusiasts are probably the only ones watching it since we all a little crazy

[Riptide]

I don't think that the NHC cares if they're being an annoyance to storms enthusiasts. That's not in their job description.

haha well said ... although they do have a obligation to provide information if the public feels there is a threat... problem is the enthusiasts are probably the only ones watching it since we all a little crazy

I think everyone is an individual with different interests. The idea of normalcy always aggravated me, it is definately a blast from the past. Funny that people don't say the same things about Bird Watchers, for example. I can see why it would be interesting but I don't consider myself a bird watcher. Nonetheless, I enjoy being one with nature and admiring its beauty.

[HURAKAN]

deepens

[KWT]

Yeah, though its still very broad, would like to see a centralised region of increasing Vorticity...

[Ivanhater]

Looking at the 12z model runs from the African area, it looks like the GFS, NOGAPS and Canadian all develop this feature as well..amazing..

NOGAPS



GFS



CANADIAN

[HURAKAN]

590
ABNT20 KNHC 291747
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Ivanhater]

BTW, I thought it was interesting that this was the wave we started following way over in eastern Africa when it looked so good!

[KWT]

This one does need to be watched in the W.Caribbean, the track should carry on to the west and IMO the W.Caribbean could well be the region to watch before the CV system. The models sure are suggestive of developing. I weren't too keen but looking at the track, its heading for a similar place that Alex formed in...

[TheBurn]

[ronjon]

Actually I think this wave merges with some energy moving off SA according to GFS and the CMC which forms a low pressure system. I agree, KWT, this one probably has a good shot of development in the western caribbean/BOC.

[Ivanhater]

Actually I think this wave merges with some energy moving off SA according to GFS and the CMC which forms a low pressure system. I agree, KWT, this one probably has a good shot of development in the western caribbean/BOC.

I agree, but this wave is definitely the spark...

[Hugo1989]

I think that this wave is more likely to develop faster than the round the eastern Atlantic. although the NHC gives 10% of development. I see a good player in this.

[Tropics Guy]

Finally some action again, we'll see which code yellow develops first................

TG

[KWT]

Actually I think this wave merges with some energy moving off SA according to GFS and the CMC which forms a low pressure system. I agree, KWT, this one probably has a good shot of development in the western caribbean/BOC.

Pretty much exactly the same thing happened with pre-Alex, so its certainly something to watch. The wave is adding energy to the mix for sure.

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM is coming on board with the other models

[KWT]

I personally wouldn't be surprised to see another one of those tight systems that could well come close to being upgraded as it reaches Central America.

[Weatherfreak000]

I like development of this area. It's going to run into a very dynamic environment in the Western Caribbean. The TW there now looks impressive.

[HURAKAN]

The central Caribbean is looking interesting too .. a lot of action