Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

The tail end of that trough furthest SW looks rather interesting.....Hmmmmmm, I'm sure others see what I mean.

[Steve]

Bailey,

HPC hasn't incorporated the threat that much yet, but it's starting to show up in the 5 day QPF.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Also, the NAM (NCEP site) has a cool feature where it shows what it thinks/simulates what the radar will do over its run. People bag on the NAM all the time in the tropics (for good reason), but it does have some value for the coast. If you've never run that loop before, here is the fine and coarse runs (zoomable by clicking):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

It certainly sees a comma look (TD/TS). If it was to get named, I think the posters who have been harping that it would be a dud season will be discredited by their over-persistence.

Speaking of TD's, good to see the remnants of TD #5 finally out in the Atlantic. That was a 2+ week system which you don't see every day in our part of the country.

[Flyinman]

I know it is early. But what is the estimated time frame for this to transpire? I do not want to get caught in the middle of this as I have travel plans to and from Beaumont Saturday.

Thanks.

[caneman]

Certainly seems as if something is trying to get going. We have been pounded with rain and wind for the last few days on the West coast of Florida. It just has that tropical feel. When you've lived here along the coast as long as I have, you know what I mean. Not saying it will develop but..........

[ikesurvivorinBCTX]

I know it is early. But what is the estimated time frame for this to transpire? I do not want to get caught in the middle of this as I have travel plans to and from Beaumont Saturday.

Thanks.

I watched the weather at 5 and kfdm said the cold front should go out into the gulf tonight and by the end of the week spin up a low and they will keep an eye on it but we should see much rain out of it. Putting the chances at 70% for the whole weekend now and said watch and keep an eye on it. Said the low will spin up in the western GOM.

[rockyman]

Navy Research Group is watching this as PGI89T:

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI89T.html

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Floodmaker Fiona...

[Steve]

FWIW, 60-84 hours NAM progs 9" for my area. Though we may not have the highest official precip total, I'm next to positive that the G.N.O. has seen more tropical rainfall than anywhere else in the country so far this year.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Bailey1777]

looks like alot of rain in my area too. will conditions be favorable in the gom ?

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

is this suppose to form up on Friday?

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 895 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND COMPUTER MODELS FAVOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[lester]

is this related to 05L? if so storm cancel j/k

Certainly has a chance for development.

[Bailey1777]

if they give a percent what does it take to get an invest?

[cycloneye]

if they give a percent what does it take to get an invest?

From 20%.

[lester]

if they give a percent what does it take to get an invest?

There's no required percentage to become an invest. There was an invest (99L) with a 0% chance and inland lol.

[Flyinman]

Thanks Ikesurvivor. I moved from Beaumont in 2008 and miss Greg at KFDM. He was always very accurate about the tropics and coastal regions.

[CrazyC83]

Could be 97L soon if trends persist...

[lrak]

Could be 97L soon if trends persist...

boy do we need a trend, every night "poof" hey where is he?

[Ptarmigan]

This should be an interesting week. If that disturbance forms in the Gulf of Mexico, it would probably be TD8 and possibly Fiona. Regardless, we could be seeing heavy rain and floods.