Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Florida1118]

new poster here... they have tampa gusting to 82mph next Saturday

To be correct its gust to 74... But a chilly 59 at night!! Welcome to Storm2k daisy!

[daisy32]

new poster here... they have tampa gusting to 82mph next Saturday

To be correct its gust to 74... But a chilly 59 at night!! Welcome to Storm2k daisy!

Thanks!!

[Ptarmigan]

May as well roll the red carpet for future Nicole.

[gatorcane]

Yeah the trough is very strong for this time of year. It may just be enough to push this tropical system east of Florida if we are lucky. Then could you imagine the cool air that would push in down the peninsula? Probably would not last long though.

[Vortex]

Yeah the trough is very strong for this time of year. It may just be enough to push this tropical system east of Florida if we are lucky. Then could you imagine the cool air that would push in down the peninsula? Probably would not last long though.

The good news..."IF" Florida deals with a tropical system late next week cooler and dry air would likely filter in as nicole departs. even possible mid-upper 60's at night across far southern florida..With possible loss of power that would make things much more comfortable than say august...

[srainhoutx]

[Vortex]

The Big Dog chimes in...


According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi, "Whether it is Matthew, or a reformed version of it, perhaps with the name Nicole, a hit is coming for Florida later next week, then the storm could move north into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states."

[Blown Away]

Yeah the trough is very strong for this time of year. It may just be enough to push this tropical system east of Florida if we are lucky. Then could you imagine the cool air that would push in down the peninsula? Probably would not last long though.

Trough can't be that strong if the system moves back NNW up the spine of Florida

[gatorcane]

The Big Dog chimes in...


According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi, "Whether it is Matthew, or a reformed version of it, perhaps with the name Nicole, a hit is coming for Florida later next week, then the storm could move north into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states."

Well there certainly is a heightened risk for Florida in my opinion so he may get this right.

I'm quite surprised of the general lack of interest when you have two global models targeting Florida run after run and the target is within 180 hours.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know the attention is on florida right now, but I am also curious what happens afterward. I saw a few maps that showed high pressure cnetered near the great lakes and building south and east blocking "nicole" from escaping out to sea. If this were the case and "nicole" moved a little slower is there a chance that this could move across florida and back into the gulf with a westerly movement only to landfall a second time on the northern gulf coast?

[Vortex]

Compare Hurricane King 1950 to the 18Z GFS today and you have a near carbon copy....

Also, the hurricane season of 1950 looks nearly identical to this year....

In addition, that season had a moderate La Nina.


Hurricane King:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_King

[Florida1118]

My local mets are also quite confident in Windy conditions next Fri/Sat...Which they usually dont put TS conditions up until they are very sure...

[gatorcane]

From that article, it mentioned hurricane king today would cause 2.8 billion dollars of damage to southern Florida

[JPmia]

i read that and i would imagine that is way too low for a damage estimate.. winds of 122mph near downtown MIA? lol damage would be much higher...on topic though, i have reservations about all these model predictions...i guess i'm in a wait and see mode at the moment.

[jdray]

Compare Hurricane King 1950 to the 18Z GFS today and you have a near carbon copy....

Also, the hurricane season of 1950 looks nearly identical to this year....

In addition, that season had a moderate La Nina.


Hurricane King:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_King

Good analogy. Lets hope future Nicole is not as potent as King was.

[Dean4Storms]

I know the attention is on florida right now, but I am also curious what happens afterward. I saw a few maps that showed high pressure cnetered near the great lakes and building south and east blocking "nicole" from escaping out to sea. If this were the case and "nicole" moved a little slower is there a chance that this could move across florida and back into the gulf with a westerly movement only to landfall a second time on the northern gulf coast?

The 18z GFS showed just that, but it weakens the storm as it moves westward along the northern Gulf Coast region likely due to dry air and strong UL winds.

[gatorcane]

I know the attention is on florida right now, but I am also curious what happens afterward. I saw a few maps that showed high pressure cnetered near the great lakes and building south and east blocking "nicole" from escaping out to sea. If this were the case and "nicole" moved a little slower is there a chance that this could move across florida and back into the gulf with a westerly movement only to landfall a second time on the northern gulf coast?

The 18z GFS showed just that, but it weakens the storm as it moves westward along the northern Gulf Coast region likely due to dry air and strong UL winds.

Exactly that is what I think also if it decides to get blocked under the ridge. There will be too much dry air around in the northern gom.

[Vortex]

Here are the times the 00Z models start running...

NAM 10pm completes by 10:55PM ET
GFS 11:35pm completes by 12:50AM ET
NOGAPS 12:30AM completes by 130AM ET
Canadian 12:30AM completes by 115 AM ET
Canadian long range out by 1:30AM ET
ECMWF(Euro) starts around 215AM completes by 3AM ET

[Vortex]

FWIW, even the 12Z JMA looks almost identical to the 18Z GFS with a Hurricane hit on South Florida....


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

[Vortex]

H168 also runs it up the spine of Florida...



http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=