NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

w a t c h the south west c a rr i b e a n today.

11N-78W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

that would be it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So we have three diff areas where low pressures may develop? Crazy.

Also, quick question, JB always said tropical lows track around which isobar... Is it 1012MB, or 1016? Now that were back in tropical cyclone mode for the summer, im trying to brush up on my knowledge again!!! Thanks again

[cycloneye]

Aric, clouds over Panama Canal are moving from SW to NE. That tells you something?

[ROCK]

looks like some rotation down there....

[LSU2001]

Looks like there is a bit of spin just off the Louisiana coast. Is this an upper level low or just unsettled weather?
LINK: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
Tim

[Rgv20]

After the 06zGFS had a TC in the NE Mexican Coast the 12zGFS now has landfall in Western LA.....Anywhere from NO to Veracruz need to keep an eye on the GOM next week.

The ECMWF has been more consistent with the Western Gulf disturbance as it just keeps it as a broad area of low pressure and has some beneficial Rain for SE and Deep South Texas which would be the best scenario.

0zECMWF Ensembles for Saturday Evening.

[MGC]

The spin off the La coast is an old MCS that moved off the Al coast a few days ago.

As far as the NW Caribbean is concerned....Doubt anything forms thru the weekend. Shear looks fairly strong.......MGC

[floridasun78]

i see shear still high i dont see shear droping yet

[USTropics]

So we have three diff areas where low pressures may develop? Crazy.

Also, quick question, JB always said tropical lows track around which isobar... Is it 1012MB, or 1016? Now that were back in tropical cyclone mode for the summer, im trying to brush up on my knowledge again!!! Thanks again

If I'm reading your question correctly the short answer is 1016MB.

Isobars are lines used to link common areas of the same pressure together. An isobar showing a pressure of 1016MB would indicate a high pressure system. Since tropical cyclones are influenced by lowering pressures (i.e. they follow the path of lower pressures), a high pressure system would act as a blocking mechanism. So in theory, a 1016MB isobar located north of a tropical low would act as a blocking mechanism, steering the low westward until it encounters the edge of the high pressure system, where the tropical low would then begin to turn more north.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS operational has a little bit stronger entity at 192 hours and the track is towards Texas/Louisiana border.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville Morning discussion.

"MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS
CLEAR ON ANY TROPICAL FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE NEXT
WEEK...SO UNTIL BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ENSUES...WILL
DOWNPLAY EFFECTS FOR THE TIME BEING."

[Aric Dunn]

The Sw carriv will be the start then move North-NNW eventually something might come together. but it will come out of the carrib.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z CMC looks like it has a Houston landfall in about a week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Sanibel]

Trigger Low north of Panama?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So we have three diff areas where low pressures may develop? Crazy.

Also, quick question, JB always said tropical lows track around which isobar... Is it 1012MB, or 1016? Now that were back in tropical cyclone mode for the summer, im trying to brush up on my knowledge again!!! Thanks again

If I'm reading your question correctly the short answer is 1016MB.

Isobars are lines used to link common areas of the same pressure together. An isobar showing a pressure of 1016MB would indicate a high pressure system. Since tropical cyclones are influenced by lowering pressures (i.e. they follow the path of lower pressures), a high pressure system would act as a blocking mechanism. So in theory, a 1016MB isobar located north of a tropical low would act as a blocking mechanism, steering the low westward until it encounters the edge of the high pressure system, where the tropical low would then begin to turn more north.

Yeah thats what i meant. The 1016 line 'blocks' or in ways steers the system. I understand that cyclones look for lower pressures but just wanted clarity on something JB spoke about. Thanks!

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble Means have the disturbance SW of the Operational 12zGFS thru Saturday Evening.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF has a 1006mb Low making landfall in Central Mexico by Saturday Morning...Its in pretty good agreement with the 12zGFS Ensemble Means.

The 12z CMC looks like it has a Houston landfall in about a week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

IMO 12zCMC is too fast with the movement of this possible TC.

[Rgv20]

This afternoons HPC discussion.

"THE DAYS 3-7 TUE-SAT FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REFLECT PREFERENCES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS
BLEND LEANS 70 PCT TO THE ECMWF MEAN DAYS 3-5 DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH THE GEFS MEAN... WHILE
SHIFTING BACK TO A 50/50 BLEND DAYS 6-7 AS THE ECMWF MEAN
PARTIALLY REFLECTS THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS THAT WERE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ERN PAC TROF. ANY WRN GULF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY FCST TO TRACK S OF THE RIO GRANDE AS PER
YDAYS NHC/HPC COORDINATION AND EXTRAPOLATION INTO DAY 7."

[Dean4Storms]

It's pretty simple if you ask me, a weak system i.e. ECMWF heads westward into MX. A deeper system moves more poleward through the weakness in the ridge.

I think the future track will depend on the strength of what gets going down there.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Corpus Christi NWS discussion made this afternoon regarding possible Tropical development in BOC.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF IS PROGD TO MOVE W TO SW THROUGH THE EXTENDED BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX. MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AS
THEY STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH 20-30 PERCENT ON MON AND 20-40
PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN FCSTG EITHER A SFC TROF/OPEN WAVE OR A CLOSED LOW DVLPG IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT MOVES N TO NE INITIALLY BY MID WEEK. THEN
THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE SYSTEM
AS A BROAD LOW DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHICH BRINGS MUCH
NEEDED PRECIP TO S TX. IF THE SYSTEM DOES BECOME A CLOSED LOW...THE
DIRECTION WILL DETERMINE IF S TX SEES ABUNDANT RAINFALL OR NO
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS THE REASONING FOR LEAVING POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH FINE TUNING EXPECTED AS TIME
PROGRESSES. AS FOR WINDS...REGARDLESS IF THIS SYSTEM DVLPS INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OR JUST REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...AM EXPECTING A NE
DIRECTION TO DVLP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. DID NOT GO AS STRONG
AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT DID INCREASE SEAS BY ONE
TO TWO FEET DUE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF.