Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[Gustywind]

Big flareup just east of Guadelope/Dominica. These are two of the islands of the Eastern Caribbean that have been thru a big drought so this is a welcome thing.

http://oi48.tinypic.com/9a4v4g.jpg

Right , we hope that we should deal with very strong showers during the next few hours, we will see.

[Gustywind]

Here is the blob just east of Guadeloupe who continues to burst nicely.

[Blown Away]

How does this wave go w/o at least a 10% yellow circle?? Convection, marginal upper level, and some model support? I predict 20% at 2 am and invest by morning!!

[floridasun78]

nhc mostly wait untill 2pm outlook to see how look doing morning

[Gustywind]

Ligthnings coming now since a few minutes, thunder is rumbling and it's raining.

[Nimbus]

Glad at least Guadeloupe and the islands north of Dominica are getting the much needed rain. Wish they would at least put a floater on this persistent blob so we could watch it. Looks like the track of the heaviest showers has been WNW on a vector just north of Jamaica.

Hispaniola always seems to have problems when there are heavy rains so 07 is worth monitoring. Apparently lots of temporary light duty habitats get built on flood or washout prone areas between storms.

[Gustywind]

Glad at least Guadeloupe and the islands north of Dominica are getting the much needed rain. Wish they would at least put a floater on this persistent blob so we could watch it. Looks like the track of the heaviest showers has been WNW on a vector just north of Jamaica.

Hispaniola always seems to have problems when there are heavy rains so 07 is worth monitoring. Apparently lots of temporary light duty habitats get built on flood or washout prone areas between storms.

Oh no, not much Nimbus, only 10 to 50mm have fallen yesterday night, that's not really sufficient to ended the persistent drought, but we're glad to have a piece of that .

[TheBurn]

06:15 EDT WV_Enhanced

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 21N57W TO
10N59W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 11N-19N INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 14N-18N.

[Gustywind]

Very numerous ligtnings right now. Thunder is rolling lowdely. Rainshowers are falling nicely in Guadeloupe.

[Gustywind]

Here is a recap of what is happenning in Guadeloupe:

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M

Conditions at Jul 30, 2012 - 07:30 AM 1130 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT)
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Rain with thunder
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TFFR 301130Z 10018KT 1500 TSRA FEW010CB BKN018 BKN040 24/23 Q1014 TEMPO 0500 TSRA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 7 AM (11) Jul 30 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) E 21 rain with thunder
6 AM (10) Jul 30 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 15 rain with thunder
5 AM (9) Jul 30 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) E 5 light rain with thunder
4 AM (8) Jul 30 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NE 7 light rain with thunder
3 AM (7) Jul 30 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NE 12 thunder
2 AM (6) Jul 30 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) E 12
1 AM (5) Jul 30 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) NE 9 rain with thunder

[canes04]

It appears to be organizing this morning. This may be a player after all!

[Blown Away]

Persistent convection and some model support, not sure why this area doesn't get identified as a low percentage area for development??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Riptide]

Persistent convection and some model support, not sure why this area doesn't get identified as a low percentage area for development??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Perhaps because it is heading for shrederola (Hispaniola), leading to non-existent development chances due to constant land interaction.

[Fego]

My amateur eyes can see that the convection is in the upper right side of the possible circulation.

[floridasun78]

Persistent convection and some model support, not sure why this area doesn't get identified as a low percentage area for development??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Perhaps because it is heading for shrederola (Hispaniola), leading to non-existent development chances due to constant land interaction.

that could be it why their no circle

[Gustywind]

To give you an idea about the intensity of this twave in terms of wind, Meteo France just reported gusts up to 53 kts! in the Northern Leewards (St Barth).

[floridasun78]

To give you an idea about the intensity of this twave in terms of wind, Meteo France just reported gusts up to 53 kts! in the Northern Leewards (St Barth).

maybe their put circle on area say that Northern Leewards(St Barth) report 53mph wind

[canes04]

I still think we have a player here. This may surprise a few people in the coming days.

[Aric Dunn]

Well there is clearly a low level circ and convection seems to trying to develop closer to it well south of PR. THis system still has a chance to develops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html