Northern Gulf

[hurricanekid416]

I'm on vacation in key West and I'm wondering if there will be any surf out there

[tolakram]

zoom 2 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

A pretender, or the real deal?

[LaBreeze]

Sitting In southern lafourche parish and we have fairly steady east winds. This is rare this time of year. Something is brewing in my opinion.
Tim

It does have that "feeling" outside that something is up. The humidity is so oppressive.

[hurricanekid416]

zoom 2 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

A pretender, or the real deal?

Wow it looks great for just 20%

[HurriGuy]

zoom 2 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

A pretender, or the real deal?

Every new frame we get, shows the convection starting to focus closer to the circulation. I say its on the way to becoming the real deal. Shocked to not see an invest soon. Any pressure drops lately?

[thetruesms]

ok well if it pulls a Humberto and I am not saying it will but playing along, do we just do away with any RECON also? We do got obs out there so no reason to waste resources. Someone could just go out there in a john boat with an anoemeter....

Before we start talking about Humberto, how about we get some pressure falls first? No low, no tropical cyclone. And that's pretty much what it boils down to. Without any signs in the models or the real world to indicate any kind of increasing organization, why bother with an invest yet? So HWRF can randomly spin it up into a hurricane and have the LBAR give it a crazy loop around back to hit Tampa? It's not like it's a particularly difficult or time-consuming thing to tag it should surface obs start showing pressures falling.

I mean, don't get me wrong - I'd love having an Invest around just as much as you. But I also don't see why there absolutely needs to be one right now. Pressures start falling at the surface and circulation becomes apparent on satellite? Then we can start wondering together where the tag is. Until then, I'll just chill.

[ROCK]

Buoys off LA show small drops in pressure....most winds are around 16kt gusting to 19kt at 10meters....

see a buoy report a 29.95.....no west wind I can find yet...still looking..

[bohaiboy]

Our private weather service just sent an update stating 30% chance, with possibilities of up to a strong TS if it remains offshore.

[Stormcenter]

I believe there is an apparent circulation on satellite from what I've seen this afternoon but heck it's not like I've never been wrong before.

[ninel conde]

has a slight chance but the front heading south doesnt give it much time.

[TheStormExpert]

Remember several systems this season had a good presentation from satellite but if you went down towards the surface you found very little to nothing in terms of an organized system. An example of this would be Dorian when its remnants were just north of Puerto Rico.

[tolakram]

Buoys off LA show small drops in pressure....most winds are around 16kt gusting to 19kt at 10meters....

see a buoy report a 29.95.....no west wind I can find yet...still looking..

May take on that was the normal daily variation. It dropped the same time yesterday as well. Next set of reports rolls around at the top of the hour. I would expect either a significant pressure drop or poofation in a few hours.

[KatDaddy]

Keep scanning the offshore buoys ROCK. I will check back later......headed to the Woodlands. Looking quite interesting this afternoon.

[Stormcenter]

What front heading south?

has a slight chance but the front heading south doesnt give it much time.

[Hammy]

While there may not (and is probably not at the moment) be a closed low it certainly seems that the convection today is more associated with low level convergence than yesterday.

[tropicwatch]

Could be wrong but I don't think it is moving west or at all currently.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

[jeff]

Remember several systems this season had a good presentation from satellite but if you went down towards the surface you found very little to nothing in terms of an organized system. An example of this would be Dorian when its remnants were just north of Puerto Rico.

But this is in the N Gulf where there are many observation platforms and sites. If there were a surface circulation you would know it.

[djones65]

Actually, if you look at the 24 hour pressure changes you will see there has been a fairly significant fall of 2 mb over the buoys and oil rigs along the SE LA coast. Compare the pressures from yesterday to today at the same hour and you will see most are 1014-1015 today compared to 1016-1017 yesterday. BURL oil rig is 2.5 mb lower than 24 hours ago. Obviously, that by itself is not significant, but when combined with the sharpening of the surface trough based on wind observations (Winds from almost due south 160-170 degrees east of the developing circulation) and improved satellite signature is reasons to look at this system more closely. Having the added resources available by declaring this an invest to me appears to be the prudent thing in my humble opinion.

[ROCK]

Could be wrong but I don't think it is moving west or at all currently.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

its moving at 10mph if at all....not in a big hurry.....ssts are 80F under it according to the gas wells reporting in.....need a west wind dangit and close this sucker off....

[jeff]

Could be wrong but I don't think it is moving west or at all currently.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

the area to watch is off the mouth of the MS River...SW of the edge of this radar scope.