Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[ninel conde]

in strong el nino seasons does the US suffer multiple strong impacts? it seems unlikely.

[OuterBanker]

Wasn't Andrew during a strong ElNino year? And a very slow season. August before the A storm.

[Hurricane Jed]

in strong el nino seasons does the US suffer multiple strong impacts? it seems unlikely.

I don't think its so much strong US impacts we need to worry about as much as significant US impacts which can happen even with a weak tropical storm. But looking back at all the strong El Nino's even this seems rare. 1997 we had just Danny.

[Ntxw]

Wasn't Andrew during a strong ElNino year? And a very slow season. August before the A storm.

Andrew was not during El Nino, it was during neutral. The moderate to strong El Nino of 1991 extended to spring of 1992. By June there were no more El Nino readings thus the El Nino ended. By August we were in neutral, with cold neutral values during Andrew that continued thru 1993.

[CrazyC83]

Wasn't Andrew during a strong ElNino year? And a very slow season. August before the A storm.

Andrew was not during El Nino, it was during neutral. The moderate to strong El Nino of 1991 extended to spring of 1992. By June there were no more El Nino readings thus the El Nino ended. By August we were in neutral, with cold neutral values during Andrew that continued thru 1993.

What made 1992 and 1993 so slow numerically though? Similar issues as 2013?

[Ntxw]

What made 1992 and 1993 so slow numerically though? Similar issues as 2013?

Could be. 1992-1993, 1993-1994 also had negative influences from the PDO and AMO as well so there was probably a background factor to it. But that was definitely not because of El Nino. 1991-92 and 1994-95 seasons had the Ninos. 1992 and 1993 were both neutral in theory they should not have been as quiet as they were but were. Is it possible we could've had a lag effect for Andrew in 92? Possibly but then again there were many seasons that didn't have that lag effect after a Nino so a big question mark. But by definition and definitely by SST's, El Nino did not exist for summer and fall of 1992 which is hurricane season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wasn't Andrew during a strong ElNino year? And a very slow season. August before the A storm.

Andrew was not during El Nino, it was during neutral. The moderate to strong El Nino of 1991 extended to spring of 1992. By June there were no more El Nino readings thus the El Nino ended. By August we were in neutral, with cold neutral values during Andrew that continued thru 1993.

What made 1992 and 1993 so slow numerically though? Similar issues as 2013?

This might be worth investigating.

Atlantic Tropical Systems of 1992

[Alyono]

what made 1992 so slow was that several storms were not classified. I'd expect a few to be added in the reanalysis

[wxman57]

Wasn't Andrew during a strong ElNino year? And a very slow season. August before the A storm.

No, conditions were neutral July-September in 1992 (0.0C). Here's a link with the data color-coded:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

There are occasional big hits during El Nino seasons, but generally not multiple big hits as strong hurricanes are limited.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've been studying El Nino and its effects for the last couple years, as some posters may be well aware of. One of the keystones I discovered was the second year following a regular El Nino season typically is bad news for the United States, as hurricanes with pressures of 960 mb or lower have struck every single time since 1960 in these years. In the case of Modoki years, such as 1963, 1969, and 1991, the lag time is less, being the very next season when the US can expect a major hit.

But what happens when that big season hits, but there is no El Nino right away? That was the case in 2013, as well as 1962, 1971, 1975, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2001, and 2012. Results in terms of overall activity are fairly inconsistent, as 1962 and 2013 were well below average, while 2000 and 2001 were above average. But there is one trend with these years, being that it is much harder to get big hurricanes to strike land areas in those years, most particularly in the US. In fact of the seasons I mentioned above, only 1971, 1975, 1980, and 2012 saw any hurricanes strike the US. In addition, 1973, 1978, and 2010 (which were all the year after the El Nino) didn't see any hurricanes reach land, which may indicate sometimes the lag time may be longer in certain El Nino events, but I don't have the knowledge to understand why at this time. 1971 doesn't carry the distinction that the other three I mentioned have, and all the hurricanes that reached the US that year were barely hurricanes - I wouldn't be surprised if one or two are lowered to tropical storms at landfall for that year, but thinking Edith was probably a hurricane in Louisiana, albeit briefly.

This is another thing I am interested in, why there is sometimes a lag between the season featuring the big hit and the next El Nino, and then why the years in that period are less active in the United States. Of course, another catch 22 is that so far in all cases since 1960 in which the first year after didn't see a hurricane reach the US, then a major strikes not only in that "magic" second year, but also in the year after that too. I would probably need to see this happen again and have the pattern repeat to see a definitive trend here, but it is intriguing.

Anyway, on to this hurricane season. This is an El Nino year most likely, but coming off a year without a US hurricane landfall. 1963, 1982, 1991, and 2002 all share that same distinction, and only 1982 didn't feature a hurricane reaching the US (though I believe that El Nino lasted through about half of the 1983 season, and during the time when Alicia struck). The other three seasons had doozies of storms reach land, Flora and its devastating floods in Haiti and Cuba, Bob for New England in 1991, and both Isidore and Lili from the Caribbean to the Gulf Coast. Oh, and Cindy was a minimal hurricane for Texas in 1963.

If that trend continues, I expect one hurricane to strike the US, probably along the Gulf Coast in either August or September. Since this is a stronger El Nino most likely, I lean towards it being barely a hurricane, but I can't rule out a category 2 storm either. But still, this is mostly conjecture, as it still only takes one, and it could be stronger than I am thinking. So be prepared!

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've been studying El Nino and its effects for the last couple years, as some posters may be well aware of. One of the keystones I discovered was the second year following a regular El Nino season typically is bad news for the United States, as hurricanes with pressures of 960 mb or lower have struck every single time since 1960 in these years. In the case of Modoki years, such as 1963, 1969, and 1991, the lag time is less, being the very next season when the US can expect a major hit.

But what happens when that big season hits, but there is no El Nino right away? That was the case in 2013, as well as 1962, 1971, 1975, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2001, and 2012. Results in terms of overall activity are fairly inconsistent, as 1962 and 2013 were well below average, while 2000 and 2001 were above average. But there is one trend with these years, being that it is much harder to get big hurricanes to strike land areas in those years, most particularly in the US. In fact of the seasons I mentioned above, only 1971, 1975, 1980, and 2012 saw any hurricanes strike the US. In addition, 1973, 1978, and 2010 (which were all the year after the El Nino) didn't see any hurricanes reach land, which may indicate sometimes the lag time may be longer in certain El Nino events, but I don't have the knowledge to understand why at this time. 1971 doesn't carry the distinction that the other three I mentioned have, and all the hurricanes that reached the US that year were barely hurricanes - I wouldn't be surprised if one or two are lowered to tropical storms at landfall for that year, but thinking Edith was probably a hurricane in Louisiana, albeit briefly.

This is another thing I am interested in, why there is sometimes a lag between the season featuring the big hit and the next El Nino, and then why the years in that period are less active in the United States. Of course, another catch 22 is that so far in all cases since 1960 in which the first year after didn't see a hurricane reach the US, then a major strikes not only in that "magic" second year, but also in the year after that too. I would probably need to see this happen again and have the pattern repeat to see a definitive trend here, but it is intriguing.

Anyway, on to this hurricane season. This is an El Nino year most likely, but coming off a year without a US hurricane landfall. 1963, 1982, 1991, and 2002 all share that same distinction, and only 1982 didn't feature a hurricane reaching the US (though I believe that El Nino lasted through about half of the 1983 season, and during the time when Alicia struck). The other three seasons had doozies of storms reach land, Flora and its devastating floods in Haiti and Cuba, Bob for New England in 1991, and both Isidore and Lili from the Caribbean to the Gulf Coast. Oh, and Cindy was a minimal hurricane for Texas in 1963.

If that trend continues, I expect one hurricane to strike the US, probably along the Gulf Coast in either August or September. Since this is a stronger El Nino most likely, I lean towards it being barely a hurricane, but I can't rule out a category 2 storm either. But still, this is mostly conjecture, as it still only takes one, and it could be stronger than I am thinking. So be prepared!

-Andrew92

What if this El Nino turns out to be a super one like 1997?

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've been studying El Nino and its effects for the last couple years, as some posters may be well aware of. One of the keystones I discovered was the second year following a regular El Nino season typically is bad news for the United States, as hurricanes with pressures of 960 mb or lower have struck every single time since 1960 in these years. In the case of Modoki years, such as 1963, 1969, and 1991, the lag time is less, being the very next season when the US can expect a major hit.

But what happens when that big season hits, but there is no El Nino right away? That was the case in 2013, as well as 1962, 1971, 1975, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2001, and 2012. Results in terms of overall activity are fairly inconsistent, as 1962 and 2013 were well below average, while 2000 and 2001 were above average. But there is one trend with these years, being that it is much harder to get big hurricanes to strike land areas in those years, most particularly in the US. In fact of the seasons I mentioned above, only 1971, 1975, 1980, and 2012 saw any hurricanes strike the US. In addition, 1973, 1978, and 2010 (which were all the year after the El Nino) didn't see any hurricanes reach land, which may indicate sometimes the lag time may be longer in certain El Nino events, but I don't have the knowledge to understand why at this time. 1971 doesn't carry the distinction that the other three I mentioned have, and all the hurricanes that reached the US that year were barely hurricanes - I wouldn't be surprised if one or two are lowered to tropical storms at landfall for that year, but thinking Edith was probably a hurricane in Louisiana, albeit briefly.

This is another thing I am interested in, why there is sometimes a lag between the season featuring the big hit and the next El Nino, and then why the years in that period are less active in the United States. Of course, another catch 22 is that so far in all cases since 1960 in which the first year after didn't see a hurricane reach the US, then a major strikes not only in that "magic" second year, but also in the year after that too. I would probably need to see this happen again and have the pattern repeat to see a definitive trend here, but it is intriguing.

Anyway, on to this hurricane season. This is an El Nino year most likely, but coming off a year without a US hurricane landfall. 1963, 1982, 1991, and 2002 all share that same distinction, and only 1982 didn't feature a hurricane reaching the US (though I believe that El Nino lasted through about half of the 1983 season, and during the time when Alicia struck). The other three seasons had doozies of storms reach land, Flora and its devastating floods in Haiti and Cuba, Bob for New England in 1991, and both Isidore and Lili from the Caribbean to the Gulf Coast. Oh, and Cindy was a minimal hurricane for Texas in 1963.

If that trend continues, I expect one hurricane to strike the US, probably along the Gulf Coast in either August or September. Since this is a stronger El Nino most likely, I lean towards it being barely a hurricane, but I can't rule out a category 2 storm either. But still, this is mostly conjecture, as it still only takes one, and it could be stronger than I am thinking. So be prepared!

-Andrew92

What if this El Nino turns out to be a super one like 1997?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, I think I mentioned that a minimal category 1 hurricane somewhere, probably the Gulf Coast, would be a historical likelihood. Think Danny in 1997, though hopefully not the same kind of nuisance that that storm was. Such a storm will likely be remembered for a short period of time, and undoubtedly some will go after its retirement, but it won't be unless it causes a major flooding disaster like Agnes in 1972. (Was that also a super event?)

In any event, the post-El Nino patterns are still the same. A couple years after each event finally subsided, there were the seasons of 1985 and 1999 which featured major hurricanes with pressures of 960 mb or lower reaching the US coast somewhere. Further, I mentioned this will have the same distinction as 1963, 1982 (an event lasting through about half of 1983 though too), 1991, and 2002, as all came after a year in which the US was spared any hurricanes. One year after these events ended, a hurricane below 960 mb hit each of these years too, or in the case of Diana in 1984, just grazed the coast before striking as a slightly weaker storm. 1964 featured Hilda, 1992 had Andrew, and 2003 saw Isabel. 1964 and 1992 came after Modoki years however, but I would still concern somewhat about a major storm in 2015 based on these trends. But 2016 looks like the really troublesome season ahead, again if these trends hold true.

But 2014? One minimal hurricane strike somewhere for the US and maybe a couple additional tropical storms. I do think one major hurricane will form somewhere but not hit land. Even 1982 and 1997 each saw one of those, Debby and Erika, plus I don't think two years without a major has ever happened, at least in modern times. But it will probably take a major flooding event out of a storm to get a name retired this year.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released their latest forecast. Read it at first post.

[SouthFloridian92]

It'll be interesting to see how the Global Weather Oscillation forecast of an active 2014 storm season turns out. They claim to have a 90% accuracy rate for the past 8 years and were the odd man out in predicting a quiet season last year, which obviously came to pass, while every other forecasting center predicted an active season. Let's see if the GWO is right again this year.

[CrazyC83]

CSU forecast: 9/3/1.

[cycloneye]

CSU forecast 9/3/1.Link shortly at first post.

[CrazyC83]

They seem to like our thinking as well. That seems fairly close to the averages in the poll so far.

[dhweather]

From Twitter:

@ExtremeStorms: Breaking: Forecast from Hurricane Conference from Gray/Klotzbach: 9 named storms, 3 Hurricanes, 1 Major in Atlantic basin 2014.

@ExtremeStorms: We will likely see a significant El Nino event in 2014 - Klotzbach/Gray from the hurricane conference.

[cycloneye]

Link to forecast shortly as Phil Klotzbach finishes his talk at conference.

From Twitter:

@nsj
Klotzbach: Best analogue years for 2014: 1957, 1963, 1965, 1997, 2002. Mean: 8.6 NS, 4.2 H, 1.6 MH, 55 ACE. #tropicalwx

[cycloneye]

Here is the moment when Phil Klotzbach made the announcement of the forecast.