Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

[toad strangler]

One thing I've noticed over the years is that the EC does poorly in a high-shear environment. It tends to move the disturbance/storm with the lower-level flow. Think Debby of 2012 in the central Gulf. EC predicted hurricane into Texas, while the GFS predicted sheared weak TS into the FL Peninsula. Strong SW-WSW shear drove all convection ENE into Florida, along with a weak center. Look at the shear forecast for later this week (below). 40-50 kts of shear coming from the WSW-SW. EC ensembles are north to western FL Panhandle, while the GFS ensembles all take it to southern Florida. I'd go with the GFS here.

The GFS has handled total rainfall much better than the EURO and CMC so far from the beginning of this very wet period for FL

[tailgater]

I'm starting to see some twist to lower level clouds between Honduras and the Cayman islands this morning. maybe the genesis of our modeled system.

[N2FSU]

06Z FV3- GFS develops a low SW of La. and ends up here. I know it’s been all over the place, but it’s maybe the first time it has come up with a final solution in line with the Euro and CMC.

[northjaxpro]

Excellent analog analysis and astute observation from wxman57. I remember EURO's huge error regarding T.S. Debby very well in 2012.

Regardless of whatever becomes of this, it will be a sheared, lopsided system with all the heavy, wettest conditions on the right(east quadrant) . The Florida peninsula is in for some serious potential of flooding as time progresses going into the Memorial Holiday weekend.

[toad strangler]

Excellent analog analysis and astute observation from wxman57. I remember EURO's huge error regarding T.S. Debby very well in 2012.

Regardless of whatever becomes of this system, it will be a sheared, lopsided system with all the heavy, wettest conditions on the right(east quadrant) . The Florida peninsula is in for some serious potential of flooding as time progresses going into the Memorial Holiday weekend.

FWIW I'm at 7.86" as of 7Am this morning for this long duration "event" kicked off the wet season on 5/14 in Port Saint Lucie West. Many areas could see 15.00" plus all told if the potential verifies.

[Visioen]

Just something I noticed, how the euro stalls this system (which of course could mean more precip).
This is 24 hours:

[tropicwatch]

Hopefully this system goes a little further west in the Gulf of Mexico than the last one. Here in the panhandle we have had just scattered showers.

[Alyono]

06Z FV3- GFS develops a low SW of La. and ends up here. I know it’s been all over the place, but it’s maybe the first time it has come up with a final solution in line with the Euro and CMC.


http://i64.tinypic.com/15s7uya.jpg

that's a different system all together

[N2FSU]

Makes sense, thanks.

[TheStormExpert]

Already picked up 10 inches so far this month! This image just backs it up. Btw, do you know what the record wettest May is for the state of Florida? I do recall May 2009 which is also being considered as a potential analog season for the upcoming hurricane season being quite wet with around 16 inches or so here in NE Palm Beach County.

[NDG]

This is one of the wettest start to our wet season that I've seen in FL in the past 13 years living here, and more to come like many have mentioned regardless as most of the moisture will be over FL because of the shear.

https://i.imgur.com/mNhRpH0.jpg

Already picked up 10 inches so far this month! This image just backs it up. Btw, do you know what the record wettest May is for the state of Florida? I do recall May 2009 which is also being considered as a potential analog season for the upcoming hurricane season being quite wet with around 16 inches or so here in NE Palm Beach County.

For the State I am not sure, for Orlando during May is 14.56" the wettest in record in 2009, so statewide at least for the Peninsula, 2009 is probably a good bet.
This is indeed a signal that ENSO could be heading to El Nino this year.

[NDG]

I'm starting to see some twist to lower level clouds between Honduras and the Cayman islands this morning. maybe the genesis of our modeled system.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 134542.gif[

I agree, I can even see some low level winds in northern Nicaragua starting to move from west to east.

[DestinHurricane]

Shouldn’t be long before NHC issiues a STWO on this

[CyclonicFury]

12z ICON is even farther west, with a 990 mb TS making landfall at the Louisiana-Texas border. This is too far west and too strong IMO.

[AJC3]

This is one of the wettest start to our wet season that I've seen in FL in the past 13 years living here, and more to come like many have mentioned regardless as most of the moisture will be over FL because of the shear.

https://i.imgur.com/mNhRpH0.jpg

The most comparable wet season "jump starter" system is the late May 2009 cutoff, which was farther east than last week's cutoff. But even that system didn't feature such a prolonged wet synoptic setup, or a second system 1.5 - 2 weeks later.


Edit: LOL..I should have read down to the next few replies to your OP before I replied. You guys are already all over the May 2009 analog (well done BTW). I mentioned that system in one of AFDs from around May 9-10, give or take.

[AJC3]

One thing I've noticed over the years is that the EC does poorly in a high-shear environment. It tends to move the disturbance/storm with the lower-level flow. Think Debby of 2012 in the central Gulf. EC predicted hurricane into Texas, while the GFS predicted sheared weak TS into the FL Peninsula. Strong SW-WSW shear drove all convection ENE into Florida, along with a weak center. Look at the shear forecast for later this week (below). 40-50 kts of shear coming from the WSW-SW. EC ensembles are north to western FL Panhandle, while the GFS ensembles all take it to southern Florida. I'd go with the GFS here.

Exactly. Another great local example of this occurring is the October 9, 2011 "no name storm". I got burned siding with the EC (surface low beneath the H50 low in the SE GOMEX) over the GFS (surface low forming off the Florida east coast, which was your call) in that case. We both know what happened there - 93L.

I learned something about the EC's bias that day, which is why I made my post early yesterday evening.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian into Pensacola

[pcolaman]

Canadian into Pensacola

I saw this earlier. Not really looking for anything to spoil the weekend.

[gatorcane]

Shouldn’t be long before NHC issiues a STWO on this

I agree, there is already rotation looking at the vis loops. I would expect a mention by NHC soon. I do expect them to mention conditions are not particularly favorable for development though. Looks invest-worthy to me.

Shear decreasing some out ahead of it:

[Nimbus]

Weathernerds site has the Caribbean cloud mass with the vorticity pinned, is that all lower level pressure related or another hybrid?