Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[SoupBone]

Good thing is that we're still 10 days out. Lots can change, and hopefully will, though a wet system dropping a few inches of rain over a day or two would be welcomed in most of the state of Texas.

[NDG]

A lot more noise by the Euro ensembles for development with this tropical wave.

[wxGuy]

[stormlover2013]

That’s 4 days before euro lol gfs is struggling

[SoupBone]

That’s 4 days before euro lol gfs is struggling

That's one week from today.

[otowntiger]

Definitely more defined than previous runs. The NW Gulf has a history of storms intensifying near landfall on the Texas coast...Claudette, Humberto, and Harvey come to mind.

Don’t forget Alicia.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A lot more noise by the Euro ensembles for development with this tropical wave.

Note that many Euro ensembles are actually showing a strong TS, especially if it manages to avoid the islands.

[stormlover2013]

And many didn’t show harvey being cat 4 either

[floridasun78]

ok why we talking about wave that not their not even strong wave forming later on? the on behind look stronger by 35w

[cycloneye]

ok why we talking about wave that not their not even strong wave forming later on? the on behind look stronger by 35w

Wave of the thread as of 00z analysis is at 55W. There is not another one until 23W.

[Steve]

NAM 12km shows some consolidation in the NW Gulf at 3.5 days. Energy will be near/at the surface. Here is the 850.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=84

Looks like some piled up energy with juice from a tropical wave slowly heading toward the Texas coast as it spins up. Interesting solution, and this would be valid Friday.

[cycloneye]

ok why we talking about wave that not their not even strong wave forming later on? the on behind look stronger by 35w

Wave will interact with a tutt trough to increase instability in the NE Caribbean islands and Greater Antilles. After wave passes the trough is when things can turn more favorable as some models are indicating when it arrives in the GOM.

[cycloneye]

NAM 12km shows some consolidation in the NW Gulf at 3.5 days. Energy will be near/at the surface. Here is the 850.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=84

Looks like some piled up energy with juice from a tropical wave slowly heading toward the Texas coast as it spins up. Interesting solution, and this would be valid Friday.

Moved your post to this thread as this wave may be the trigger.

[Steve]

Word. I’ll delete it. I did 3 of them but I didn’t realize they were being moved and so I deleted the reference.

My bad. I confused it all up. I was thinking what the NAM has was before this wave but maybe not?

[Steve]

Here it is at 700mb which is 10,000 feet up so not that high. If you watch the evolution across Cuba and maybe a surge from the Yucatán, you can see how this comes together. It’s the NAM so, there are no warranties. But GFS 18z only had an onshore flow out the SE/ESE. Major coup for the NAM if it gets this right. Im not sure it’s the same wave that this thread is about though because it would be at like 93W in 3 days.

Check it out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=84

[Cpv17]

Here it is at 700mb which is 10,000 feet up so not that high. If you watch the evolution across Cuba and maybe a surge from the Yucatán, you can see how this comes together. It’s the NAM so, there are no warranties. But GFS 18z only had an onshore flow out the SE/ESE. Major coup for the NAM if it gets this right. Im not sure it’s the same wave that this thread is about though because it would be at like 93W in 3 days.

Check it out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=84

The GFS is kinda showing it as well, just not to the extent of the NAM.

[SoupBone]

Shear is heavy out on front of it, but it's much more favorable over the island chains.

[Steve]

Here it is at 700mb which is 10,000 feet up so not that high. If you watch the evolution across Cuba and maybe a surge from the Yucatán, you can see how this comes together. It’s the NAM so, there are no warranties. But GFS 18z only had an onshore flow out the SE/ESE. Major coup for the NAM if it gets this right. Im not sure it’s the same wave that this thread is about though because it would be at like 93W in 3 days.

Check it out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=84

The GFS is kinda showing it as well, just not to the extent of the NAM.

It sort of hints at the surface winds buckling, but it doesn’t close anything off. It would be cool to see something unexpected pop up for the Labor Day weekend provided it just brings moderate conditions. I’ve been looking farther east. NAM has that tropical storm looking threat for this weekend. It’s always interesting with Texas because of potential tightening into landfall. I don’t know.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro is stronger through 168 hours compared to last 12z run and has it passing through south Florida.

[Brent]

looks like the Euro develops it very close to SW Florida at 192

south of the Panhandle at 216, looks LA/MS bound?