Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

Let's all not forget pre Zeta GFS and Para for run after run where showing Zeta going through the Bahamas heading NE and Zeta ends up heading for Gulf coast. The GFS tends to overdevelop these systems as well as the weakness in the ridge. Considering its size I don't think it will spin up that quickly. I agree cyclogensis signal is very strong at the moment.

This is true. I also agree strong signal for development.

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on what we are seeing in the modeling, I have no doubt we will see something spin up again next week in the Caribbean. However, I have a hard time believing that it will be a threat to the CONUS. I think the only area that could reasonably be in play would be South Florida. And to get a hit there in November, I think you'd have to have a storm on a North heading at least as far west as the Isle of Pines in Cuba. Somewhere in the Yucatan Channel or near Cozumel would increase the odds. Anything East of the Isle of Pines is likely to get punted out over Cuba and through the Bahamas. Just my two cents.

[toad strangler]

Based on what we are seeing in the modeling, I have no doubt we will see something spin up again next week in the Caribbean. However, I have a hard time believing that it will be a threat to the CONUS. I think the only area that could reasonably be in play would be South Florida. And to get a hit there in November, I think you'd have to have a storm on a North heading at least as far west as the Isle of Pines in Cuba. Somewhere in the Yucatan Channel or near Cozumel would increase the odds. Anything East of the Isle of Pines is likely to get punted out over Cuba and through the Bahamas. Just my two cents.

Agree and I'm not a climo hugger but I do respect it. ZERO .... (as in NEVER) as a Caribbean originated hurricane hit the CONUS in the month of November since at least 1851. That's 169 years, I'll take those odds over saying "Well it's 2020 so anything goes"

[SFLcane]

Based on what we are seeing in the modeling, I have no doubt we will see something spin up again next week in the Caribbean. However, I have a hard time believing that it will be a threat to the CONUS. I think the only area that could reasonably be in play would be South Florida. And to get a hit there in November, I think you'd have to have a storm on a North heading at least as far west as the Isle of Pines in Cuba. Somewhere in the Yucatan Channel or near Cozumel would increase the odds. Anything East of the Isle of Pines is likely to get punted out over Cuba and through the Bahamas. Just my two cents.

Agree and I'm not a climo hugger but I do respect it. ZERO .... (as in NEVER) as a Caribbean originated hurricane hit the CONUS in the month of November since at least 1851. That's 169 years, I'll take those odds over saying "Well it's 2020 so anything goes"

You have a hurricane heading into the gulfcoast in October so hopefully that’s not sign.

[toad strangler]

Based on what we are seeing in the modeling, I have no doubt we will see something spin up again next week in the Caribbean. However, I have a hard time believing that it will be a threat to the CONUS. I think the only area that could reasonably be in play would be South Florida. And to get a hit there in November, I think you'd have to have a storm on a North heading at least as far west as the Isle of Pines in Cuba. Somewhere in the Yucatan Channel or near Cozumel would increase the odds. Anything East of the Isle of Pines is likely to get punted out over Cuba and through the Bahamas. Just my two cents.

Agree and I'm not a climo hugger but I do respect it. ZERO .... (as in NEVER) as a Caribbean originated hurricane hit the CONUS in the month of November since at least 1851. That's 169 years, I'll take those odds over saying "Well it's 2020 so anything goes"

You have a hurricane heading into the gulfcoast in October so hopefully that’s not sign.

Well the N Gulf Coast is shaded in NOAA's climo tracks for October, just not the most expected track. But I get it, THIS LATE in Oct isn't when you expect to see that.

[SFLcane]

Agree and I'm not a climo hugger but I do respect it. ZERO .... (as in NEVER) as a Caribbean originated hurricane hit the CONUS in the month of November since at least 1851. That's 169 years, I'll take those odds over saying "Well it's 2020 so anything goes"

You have a hurricane heading into the gulfcoast in October so hopefully that’s not sign.

Well the N Gulf Coast is shaded in NOAA's climo tracks for October, just not the most expected track. But I get it, THIS LATE in Oct isn't when you expect to see that.

Eps and GEFS are west of 80w.

[Loveweather12]

So which day is this storm possible to form? Weekend? Wanting to know so I know when to really watch

[underthwx]

You have a hurricane heading into the gulfcoast in October so hopefully that’s not sign.

Well the N Gulf Coast is shaded in NOAA's climo tracks for October, just not the most expected track. But I get it, THIS LATE in Oct isn't when you expect to see that.

Eps and GEFS are west of 80w.

I have been watching the NHC 5 day outlook page, so far they haven't shown this yet, I guess it is a bit too soon?...

[SFLcane]

Gfs continues looking more like your typical November development almost misses Cuba completely on its way out to the NE. Large deep trof scoops it out

[SFLcane]

again the only deterministic model taking this past 80w is the CMC.

[SFLcane]

Woah 18z GEFS is very busy and west of 80w.

[SconnieCane]

again the only deterministic model taking this past 80w is the CMC.

We've heard this story how many times for the "modelstorms" that heralded the eventual development of Delta and now Zeta?

[TheStormExpert]

Based on what we are seeing in the modeling, I have no doubt we will see something spin up again next week in the Caribbean. However, I have a hard time believing that it will be a threat to the CONUS. I think the only area that could reasonably be in play would be South Florida. And to get a hit there in November, I think you'd have to have a storm on a North heading at least as far west as the Isle of Pines in Cuba. Somewhere in the Yucatan Channel or near Cozumel would increase the odds. Anything East of the Isle of Pines is likely to get punted out over Cuba and through the Bahamas. Just my two cents.

Why do you have a hard time seeing this as a threat to the U.S.? Teleconnections do not support an East Coast trough like the GFS and GFS-P keep insisting on. So a threat to Florida or places further west is most likely.

[gatorcane]

Let's all not forget pre Zeta GFS and Para for run after run where showing Zeta going through the Bahamas heading NE and Zeta ends up heading for Gulf coast. The GFS tends to overdevelop these systems as well as the weakness in the ridge. Considering its size I don't think it will spin up that quickly. I agree cyclogensis signal is very strong at the moment.

This is true. I also agree strong signal for development.

Yes and no. Remember the early long range “crazy” GFS runs which turned 95l west just south of Florida sending it all the way west into the Gulf. Then they backed off in the medium range. Point is they were “seeing” a ridge building over Florida and the Bahamas. Tough to get something significant to Florida or the US this late.

[Loveweather12]

Let's all not forget pre Zeta GFS and Para for run after run where showing Zeta going through the Bahamas heading NE and Zeta ends up heading for Gulf coast. The GFS tends to overdevelop these systems as well as the weakness in the ridge. Considering its size I don't think it will spin up that quickly. I agree cyclogensis signal is very strong at the moment.

This is true. I also agree strong signal for development.

Yes and no. Remember the early long range “crazy” GFS runs which turned 95l west just south of Florida sending it all the way west into the Gulf. Then they backed off in the medium range. Point is they were “seeing” a ridge building over Florida and the Bahamas. Tough to get something significant to Florida or the US this late.

Climo says it tough to get hit by a hurricane in LA and look where we are. We have to take each storm one by one because climo is out the door this year. I’m learning more and more not to question Mother Nature

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on what we are seeing in the modeling, I have no doubt we will see something spin up again next week in the Caribbean. However, I have a hard time believing that it will be a threat to the CONUS. I think the only area that could reasonably be in play would be South Florida. And to get a hit there in November, I think you'd have to have a storm on a North heading at least as far west as the Isle of Pines in Cuba. Somewhere in the Yucatan Channel or near Cozumel would increase the odds. Anything East of the Isle of Pines is likely to get punted out over Cuba and through the Bahamas. Just my two cents.

Why do you have a hard time seeing this as a threat to the U.S.? Teleconnections do not support an East Coast trough like the GFS and GFS-P keep insisting on. So a threat to Florida or places further west is most likely.

Simply put, if I'm placing a wager, I'd put my money down that this either buries into Central America or it gets swept out across Cuba. It's very hard to go against the odds. Not saying it is impossible (Hurricane Kate 1985), just not likely.

[toad strangler]

Based on what we are seeing in the modeling, I have no doubt we will see something spin up again next week in the Caribbean. However, I have a hard time believing that it will be a threat to the CONUS. I think the only area that could reasonably be in play would be South Florida. And to get a hit there in November, I think you'd have to have a storm on a North heading at least as far west as the Isle of Pines in Cuba. Somewhere in the Yucatan Channel or near Cozumel would increase the odds. Anything East of the Isle of Pines is likely to get punted out over Cuba and through the Bahamas. Just my two cents.

Why do you have a hard time seeing this as a threat to the U.S.? Teleconnections do not support an East Coast trough like the GFS and GFS-P keep insisting on. So a threat to Florida or places further west is most likely.

Simply put, if I'm placing a wager, I'd put my money down that this either buries into Central America or it gets swept out across Cuba. It's very hard to go against the odds. Not saying it is impossible (Hurricane Kate 1985), just not likely.

*Kate was not a Caribbean storm. She developed just N of the GA's and moved WEST into the GOM. Nothing in modern history shows a HURRICANE moving out of the Caribbean and hitting the CONUS in November.

[SouthFLTropics]

Why do you have a hard time seeing this as a threat to the U.S.? Teleconnections do not support an East Coast trough like the GFS and GFS-P keep insisting on. So a threat to Florida or places further west is most likely.

Simply put, if I'm placing a wager, I'd put my money down that this either buries into Central America or it gets swept out across Cuba. It's very hard to go against the odds. Not saying it is impossible (Hurricane Kate 1985), just not likely.

*Kate was not a Caribbean storm

That is true... I was referencing November storms in general.


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[aspen]

GFS-P has an intensifying hurricane just south of Jamaica at 210 hrs.

It’s possible Eta is able to just barely become an October storm and form on Halloween.

[SFLcane]