Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Teban54]

Forecasters are generally forecasting ~20 storms. Last year, they were also forecasting ~20 storms. Potential 2020 repeat

Last year at the same time, forecast was 24 storms

The 24 NS forecasts only came in August, not July.

[ouragans]

TWC update is up

19/8/3

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/vi ... date-is-in

[AtlanticWind]

CSU and TSR update this week.

Anyone expect any changes?

[cycloneye]

Both leave the same numbers.

[cycloneye]

NOAA will release their August outlook tommorow at 11 AM EDT.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... to7lmuGYqY

[toad strangler]

NOAA will release their August outlook tommorow at 11 AM EDT.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... to7lmuGYqY

This is the one I’ve been anticipating most. I believe it’s their last as well?

[Category5Kaiju]

I personally do not see why NOAA would lower their numbers since last issued. If anything I feel like it would be in their best interests to keep it the same or perhaps sliiiightly raise the range of hurricanes or NS (maybe by like 1 for the upper limit).

[toad strangler]

I personally do not see why NOAA would lower their numbers since last issued. If anything I feel like it would be in their best interests to keep it the same or perhaps sliiiightly raise the range of hurricanes or NS (maybe by like 1 for the upper limit).

This update for me is NOAA’s thoughts on favorability or lack thereof regarding all the main indicators we all follow so closely.

[cycloneye]

NOAA will release their August outlook tommorow at 11 AM EDT.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... to7lmuGYqY

This is the one I’ve been anticipating most. I believe it’s their last as well?

That will be it for 2021.

[SFLcane]

NOAA will release their August outlook tommorow at 11 AM EDT.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... to7lmuGYqY

This is the one I’ve been anticipating most. I believe it’s their last as well?

As you I have been waiting for this update from NOAA. I can’t foresee them lowering there numbers if anything maybe an increase with a developing La Niña and a warming main development region. But we shall see

[cycloneye]

CSU on Thursday.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1422676774094266371

[toad strangler]

CSU on Thursday.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1422676774094266371

The late In season NOAA & CSU updates are huge this year more than usual because of mostly bullish but sometimes contradictory modeling / indicators. Thankfully these two know how to incorporate climatology after modelology! A big couple days inbound.

[cycloneye]

And less known for the majority but TSR also will release theirs also on Thursday.

[toad strangler]

NOAA - “Atlantic hurricane season shows no signs of slowing” as oceanic and atmospheric conditions remain conducive for an above average season.

http://www.noaa.gov/news-release/atlant ... of-slowing

7-10 hurricanes
3-5 majors

This includes Elsa

[Category5Kaiju]

15-21 NS? Yikes

[toad strangler]

15-21 NS? Yikes

10 - 16 to go

[AlphaToOmega]

"Above-average" could mean a lot of different things. I could mean above-average, hyperactive, or record-breaking.

[ouragans]

NOAA update is a little above for TS and H
TS: 15-21
H: 7-10
MH: 3-5

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/atlan ... of-slowing

[SFLcane]

NOAA update is a little above for TS and H
TS: 15-21
H: 7-10
MH: 3-5

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/atlan ... of-slowing

https://www.noaa.gov/media/image_download/3ff9f920-cd3d-4aeb-a332-bbd560c0b16c

What were the numbers in May?

[Category5Kaiju]

"Above-average" could mean a lot of different things. I could mean above-average, hyperactive, or record-breaking.

Not exactly sure 100%, but isn't "hyperactive" officially the highest classification a season's activity (particularly ACE-wise) could be classified as? "Record-breaking" could mean many things and is a vague term though, from NS count (2020) to ACE (1933) to H count (2005) to hurricane streak (2017, 1893 for example).