![Image](https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ssta.daily.current.png)
Much of the EPAC is below normal & most of the Altantic is above normal (The Gulf of Mexico is REALLY warm this time of the year)
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Shell Mound wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Shell Mound wrote:May you kindly make a similar animated sequence for the forecast STSD during ASO, going back to 2017?
Sure:
https://i.ibb.co/C1nh47g/ezgif-2-3e9d224c5cac.gif
By “STSD” I was referring to the Standardised Tropical-Storm Density. May you please post the animated sequence for those?
Interestingly, the SST profile, with + anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea, suggests -AMO, yet the NS/H suggest otherwise.
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Shell Mound wrote:
By “STSD” I was referring to the Standardised Tropical-Storm Density. May you please post the animated sequence for those?
Interestingly, the SST profile, with + anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea, suggests -AMO, yet the NS/H suggest otherwise.
My bad, here you go:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/828679091019710524/ezgif-6-9790f2252bcf.gif
Shell Mound wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Shell Mound wrote:By “STSD” I was referring to the Standardised Tropical-Storm Density. May you please post the animated sequence for those?
Interestingly, the SST profile, with + anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea, suggests -AMO, yet the NS/H suggest otherwise.
My bad, here you go:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/828679091019710524/ezgif-6-9790f2252bcf.gif
The latest forecast suggests steering currents rather similar to those in ASO 2019: storms turning sharply northward, with harrowingly close calls (i.e., Dorian).
NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:Shell Mound wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:My bad, here you go:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/828679091019710524/ezgif-6-9790f2252bcf.gif
The latest forecast suggests steering currents rather similar to those in ASO 2019: storms turning sharply northward, with harrowingly close calls (i.e., Dorian).
Considering Dorian made landfall in North Carolina as a mildly powerful hurricane and completely devastated the Bahamas (as well as doing significant amounts of additional damage as a post-tropical cyclone in Canada), I don't think Dorian is the best usage of a close call. I'm aware you're most likely referring to southeast Florida, but steering currents like 2019 would make for a very bad season for those living on islands off the US East Coast.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Just curious but what was the prediction for the storm tracks in years like 2005, 2010, or 2017 this early in the season? I know 2005 was a heavy landfall year while 2017 was a mild recurve year and 2010 a heavy recurve year, so just wondering how those early predictions would compare with 2021
SFLcane wrote:That ACE prediction (which is quite active by ECMWF standards for the Atlantic) is really weird given its (fairly typical) depiction of a dry MDR.
SFLcane wrote:That ACE prediction (which is quite active by ECMWF standards for the Atlantic) is really weird given its (fairly typical) depiction of a dry MDR.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Yeah I think it very important either way to consider that just because a predominantly OTS season is expected that does not necessarily mean significant land impacts are not going to occur. Some good examples of this are 1926, 2003, and of course 2019.
tolakram wrote:Out of curiosity, has any pre-season prediction of general tracks been anywhere close to accurate? Every spring we seem to go through some of these discussions with no regard for how any of these have verified in the past. Not that there's anything wrong with analyzing what the models are saying.
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