Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

Are you kidding me this IR woah!

[SFLcane]

TD already?

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1563147004150050816

[SoupBone]

We only need 6 more days, this thing needs to hold off!

[SFLcane]

Seriously!

[tropicwatch]

There has been a significant increase in 925mb vorticity this morning. Yesterday it was almost non-existent.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563153860428206080

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563153860428206080?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's pretty simple, NHC is tracking the axis of the trailing wave. The mid-level surge from the trailing wave will pivot this complex north later today. My post from last night outlines this: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2982319

Latest ECMWF (06z) shows this evolution as well:

[BobHarlem]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563153860428206080?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's pretty simple, NHC is tracking the axis of the trailing wave. The mid-level surge from the trailing wave will pivot this complex north later today. My post from last night outlines this: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2982319

Latest ECMWF (06z) shows this evolution as well:
https://i.ibb.co/8Xd2Gvt/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-fh0-90.gif

I don't disagree with that at all, but I do think it's ahead of schedule and the 8am two is a bit too conservative with 30%.

[Iceresistance]

Visible is showing a squall that has been ejected to the SE.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/30789505.gif

[AutoPenalti]

Visible is showing a squall that has been ejected to the SE.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/30789505.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/30789505.gif

Looks like it's puking outflow boundaries, it's crazy to think how dry the ATL is...

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563153860428206080?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's pretty simple, NHC is tracking the axis of the trailing wave. The mid-level surge from the trailing wave will pivot this complex north later today. My post from last night outlines this: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2982319

Latest ECMWF (06z) shows this evolution as well:
https://i.ibb.co/8Xd2Gvt/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-fh0-90.gif

I don't disagree with that at all, but I do think it's ahead of schedule and the 8am two is a bit too conservative with 30%.

Yeah I would have gone 40%.

[tropicwatch]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563153860428206080?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's pretty simple, NHC is tracking the axis of the trailing wave. The mid-level surge from the trailing wave will pivot this complex north later today. My post from last night outlines this: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2982319

Latest ECMWF (06z) shows this evolution as well:
https://i.ibb.co/8Xd2Gvt/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-fh0-90.gif

I don't disagree with that at all, but I do think it's ahead of schedule and the 8am two is a bit too conservative with 30%.

If this area is the 30%, the NHC graphical map is not accurate.

[toad strangler]

Visible is showing a squall that has been ejected to the SE.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/30789505.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/30789505.gif

Looks like it's puking outflow boundaries, it's crazy to think how dry the ATL is...

Ya, big time collapsing tops on the Eastern side

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563153860428206080?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's pretty simple, NHC is tracking the axis of the trailing wave. The mid-level surge from the trailing wave will pivot this complex north later today. My post from last night outlines this: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2982319

Latest ECMWF (06z) shows this evolution as well:
https://i.ibb.co/8Xd2Gvt/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-fh0-90.gif

I don't disagree with that at all, but I do think it's ahead of schedule and the 8am two is a bit too conservative with 30%.

Given the overwhelming model support for this to develop, it's definitely higher than 30%. There's a lot of energy here to work with, and the pieces are already on the board so to speak (unlike the system in the Caribbean). I would be shocked if this isn't invested later today after the 12z model suite.

Side Note: For those that didn't know, Stewart retired from the NHC in January. If he was on the desk, this would be 90% and invested (just saying).

[SFLcane]

Visible is showing a squall that has been ejected to the SE.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/30789505.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/30789505.gif

Looks like it's puking outflow boundaries, it's crazy to think how dry the ATL is...

Ya, big time collapsing tops on the Eastern side

Looks great to me convection still expanding you can even see lighting there.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like it's puking outflow boundaries, it's crazy to think how dry the ATL is...

Ya, big time collapsing tops on the Eastern side

Looks great to me convection still expanding you can even see lighting there.

https://i.postimg.cc/RFkX1R1N/ir.gif

It could have a CDO already, that is way ahead of schedule!

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563153860428206080?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's pretty simple, NHC is tracking the axis of the trailing wave. The mid-level surge from the trailing wave will pivot this complex north later today. My post from last night outlines this: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2982319

Latest ECMWF (06z) shows this evolution as well:

Going to re-quote this excellent post from UStropics. There is a reason the NHC has it at 30% still and all the models are still not 100% decided on which blob will be the dominating one. We have had just one bullish operational run so far so give it some time, it’s very likely not close to 90% or a TD just yet.

Remember just last week how excellent the wave in the BoC looked and when recon got there, it was literally just a wave blowing convection off its axis with 90% off the winds in just one direction.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

Based on the 8am NHC Update "X", in that red circle it appears the beginning of a circulation.

[ElectricStorm]

I think this is going to end up being a pretty big mess with competing vorts fighting to become dominant, before finally developing closer to the islands. I think the GFS is way too bullish for now but I would be surprised if this doesn't end up developing.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563153860428206080?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It's pretty simple, NHC is tracking the axis of the trailing wave. The mid-level surge from the trailing wave will pivot this complex north later today. My post from last night outlines this: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2982319

Latest ECMWF (06z) shows this evolution as well:
https://i.ibb.co/8Xd2Gvt/ecmwf-z850-vort-atl-fh0-90.gif

Going to re-quote this excellent post from UStropics. There is a reason the NHC has it at 30% still and all the models are still not 100% decided on which blob will be the dominating one. We have had just one bullish operational run so far so give it some time, it’s very likely not close to 90% or a TD just yet.

Remember just last week how excellent the wave in the BoC looked and when recon got there, it was literally just a wave blowing convection off its axis with 90% off the winds in just one direction.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Keep in mind that every tropical wave is different to each other, there is evidence of a possible LLC with the low level clouds from the west of the convection moving east and some of those to the east are moving west, PTC 4 did not feature that.