Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[Cpv17]

GFS is likely too strong imo. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing stays weak and crashes into Belize or the Yucatan.

The GEFS has this headed towards Mexico/Texas.

Edit: looks like the FL panhandle to Mexico are in play here on the 18z GEFS.

[LarryWx]

Per the following link, the E GOM at 87-90 F is currently running the hottest it has been in August since at the very least 2017 and likely is about as warm as it ever gets there. This is one reason the GFS is exploding this TC. Longterm average is closer to 86-87 F.

https://seatemperature.info/august/gulf ... ature.html

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS out to 198 hours

[Cpv17]

Geez, the GEFS is going bonkers in the Gulf.

[skyline385]

Ensemble is indeed looking very busy

[toad strangler]

Geez, the GEFS is going bonkers in the Gulf.

That must be the final solution

[SFLcane]

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS out to 234 hours

[Blown Away]

18Z GEFS out to 198 hours
https://i.imgur.com/zJF9Di2.png

Many more GEFS now showing weak into CA similar to Euro.

[Cpv17]

Geez, the GEFS is going bonkers in the Gulf.

That must be the final solution

Lol who knows. At least we might have something to track.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS out to 198 hours
https://i.imgur.com/zJF9Di2.png

Many more GEFS now showing weak into CA similar to Euro.

Yup but there is also another camp that if it enters the gulf there is not telling how strong it could get.

[tolakram]

Swirl watch

[Hurricaneman]

Swirl watch

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6603/M9DGMY.gif

Seems like an eddy or some kind of low level swirl near the convection that’s firing

[Nimbus]

Per the following link, the E GOM at 87-90 F is currently running the hottest it has been in August since at the very least 2017 and likely is about as warm as it ever gets there. This is one reason the GFS is exploding this TC. Longterm average is closer to 86-87 F.

https://seatemperature.info/august/gulf ... ature.html

Recurving around the periphery of a ridge at that latitude there usually isn't much inhibiting development in September. The storms actually recurve into a higher pressure environment so that and the SST anomaly probably accounts for the intensity outlook. I'm just in denial because of the quiet August.

[skyline385]

Per the following link, the E GOM at 87-90 F is currently running the hottest it has been in August since at the very least 2017 and likely is about as warm as it ever gets there. This is one reason the GFS is exploding this TC. Longterm average is closer to 86-87 F.

https://seatemperature.info/august/gulf ... ature.html

Recurving around the periphery of a ridge at that latitude there usually isn't much inhibiting development in September. The storms actually recurve into a higher pressure environment so that and the SST anomaly probably accounts for the intensity outlook. I'm just in denial because of the quiet August.

What's kinda interesting is that the Gulf was running much hotter last month and has actually cooled down a fair bit.

[Cpv17]

Per the following link, the E GOM at 87-90 F is currently running the hottest it has been in August since at the very least 2017 and likely is about as warm as it ever gets there. This is one reason the GFS is exploding this TC. Longterm average is closer to 86-87 F.

https://seatemperature.info/august/gulf ... ature.html

Recurving around the periphery of a ridge at that latitude there usually isn't much inhibiting development in September. The storms actually recurve into a higher pressure environment so that and the SST anomaly probably accounts for the intensity outlook. I'm just in denial because of the quiet August.

What's kinda interesting is that the Gulf was running much hotter last month and has actually cooled down a fair bit.

https://i.imgur.com/7nuPWnA.jpg

I wanna say it’s been cooling down ever since it peaked in late June/early July. Still plenty warm though.

[lsuhurricane]

18z Euro appears to hold a stronger vorticity center through the end of the run than 12z. Which wasn’t much to begin with

[blp]

Interesting..

[Hurricaneman]

18z Euro appears to hold a stronger vorticity center through the end of the run than 12z. Which wasn’t much to begin with

The Euro seems to coming onboard, I think we now have a player here

[skyline385]

Here's a comparison of 18Z ECMWF vs 12Z ECMWF vs 18Z GFS vs 18Z ICON, small increase in the Euro vorticity for this run