Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[Iceresistance]

I think I saw some 930s and 940s in the EPS ensemble.

There was a 931 mb anomaly heading towards Houston, and another 941 mb anomaly into Mexico.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgIvK.gif

[SFLcane]

Whatever does form will be quite large. you can see it it taking shape already

[Nimbus]

Whatever does form will be quite large. you can see it it taking shape already

https://i.postimg.cc/6513QtK4/gggg.gif

Also an upper high further north currently but that won't trap the system and track it NW unless the high lingers longer than forecast due to Franklin.

No invest yet even though early model runs have landfall less than a week away.

[Ianswfl]

Whatever does form will be quite large. you can see it it taking shape already

https://i.postimg.cc/6513QtK4/gggg.gif

Models show compact system.

Could it be one of those large systems, BUT has a small core? Dennis 2005 a good example. Most of its life had a small core of winds but had a large circulation envelope. Of course this isn't going to be like Dennis but using an example storms with small cores but large circulation.

[SFLcane]

EPS shifted south 00z vs 12z

5-6 days to go expect more change.

[Fancy1002]

I think I saw some 930s and 940s in the EPS ensemble.

There was a 931 mb anomaly heading towards Houston, and another 941 mb anomaly into Mexico.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgIvK.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgIvK.gif

I didn’t even notice those two, I was talking about the ones heading towards Florida.

[Ianswfl]

EPS shifted south 00z vs 12z

5-6 days to go expect more change.

https://i.postimg.cc/T33TgSdM/ecmwf.gif

South members are weaker. Northern camps are strong. Do you think it's more time over water the stronger northern solutions, or it has more favorable winds if it takes a more northern path? Southern tracks seem more like it would have more shear too.

[cycloneye]

Agree Adrian, looking good already.

[Nimbus]

EPS shifted south 00z vs 12z

5-6 days to go expect more change.

https://i.postimg.cc/T33TgSdM/ecmwf.gif

South members are weaker. Northern camps are strong. Do you think it's more time over water the stronger northern solutions, or it has more favorable winds if it takes a more northern path? Southern tracks seem more like it would have more shear too.

The stronger members look they are driving north into high pressure.
Weaker members look like they are being sheared by an approaching trough.
Ridging to the north will decide.
See how the isobars evolve with the 18Z runs and if there is any concensus.

[Zonacane]

People are way too quick to write off the Gulf

[Iceresistance]

I think I saw some 930s and 940s in the EPS ensemble.

There was a 931 mb anomaly heading towards Houston, and another 941 mb anomaly into Mexico.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgIvK.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgIvK.gif

I didn’t even notice those two, I was talking about the ones heading towards Florida.

Oh, I did see the 970s and 980s into Florida, but the 930s and 940s were further to the west.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though there’s a broad low over the borders of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, might be in the Caribbean by tonight or tomorrow

[wxman57]

Looks as though there’s a broad low over the borders of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, might be in the Caribbean by tonight or tomorrow

Shows up clearly on the Euro 850mb vorticity maps. While I'm not inclined to believe the Euro's hurricane hit, I do think it could be a TD/TS. I'll take one of those for SE TX.

[gatorcane]

You almost have the feeling any run now from the GFS will show something a bit more organized in the Eastern Gulf than it has been showing. Maybe we see that on the 18Z GFS. It has been slow to pick up on genesis this year in some cases like what we saw with Harold and now we see some run-to-run consistency from the Euro.

[GCANE]

Right on queue with the popups over Honduras.
Nothing wrong with the UL environment.

[GCANE]

That ULL over the BoC looks unusually moist on WV,
I think GFS missed the boat on this.
Currently GFS has low humidity values over the Yucatan.
That's not what I gather from satellite imagery.

[lsuhurricane]

18z ICON indicating further entanglement on the Yucatan Peninsula. Delays development and as a result, a further western ejection into the GOM.

[GCANE]

Looks like Franklin is helping to bring some high TPW air from the EPAC into the W Carib.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

GFS is also not accounting for this from what I see on Earth Nullschool

[GCANE]

GFS has this under a nicely developed and broad anticyclone for the next three days.

[typhoonty]

Oh boy, here we go again.

I'm not trusting the GFS with TCG this year at all. According to the model 2 days out, Harold would've come ashore as a closed isobar. The Euro ensemble mean is a pretty good first guess. I'm definitely slow playing this if I'm the media because of the PTSD with Ian. Hopefully the ULL is forever entangled with this AOI like Siamese Twins. I am superstitious, however. Knowing the track record of these peak season AOI's turning east into the Florida West Coast usually overperforming, I'm weary.