Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[Hayabusa]

12z eps for the atlantic catches my eye, ensemble with the lowest mslp is 898 mb...

This one with closeup is filtered with only strong ensembles

[jlauderdal]

The GFS is really wacko this year. 06 z had a monster Ga to NC, 12z doesn't even develop anywhere. After this season it needs to enter rehab. I have never seen it perform as badly as this year in the long term forecast.

Its consistently inconsistent, gfs runs must be taken with a very cynical view until further notice which could be the rest of the season, beware of any solution from the gfs beyond 48 hrs

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1697702957389697107

[Spacecoast]

Did the 12z Eps slip west from 00z?

Yes slightly west of 00Z

12z EPS vs 0z EPS. (black sq is 12z Operational @240


12 EPS Probabilities @ 264Hrs

[toad strangler]

I’d wait until this gets all the way into the central tropical Atlantic minimum before even glancing at mid range 500mb set up. For now, looks like we have a probable peak season MDR long tracker. What was that about El Niño? lol

[SconnieCane]

The GFS is really wacko this year. 06 z had a monster Ga to NC, 12z doesn't even develop anywhere. After this season it needs to enter rehab. I have never seen it perform as badly as this year in the long term forecast.

Its consistently inconsistent, gfs runs must be taken with a very cynical view until further notice which could be the rest of the season, beware of any solution from the gfs beyond 48 hrs

Sheesh. And here I was every year trying to use its long-range forecasts of springtime severe weather potential to book my chasecations. No wonder it took me 10 years of trying to see a significant tornado!

[LarryWx]

Did the 12z Eps slip west from 00z?

Slightly.

https://i.imgur.com/Fkkywqb.gif

I count 27 members (53%) with a H. That is more than the 0Z and is as high as any EPS I can recall for any as yet to develop system in the MDR this season to date. So, at a minimum, this looks likely to be a big ACE producer as well as one that will probably give us lots of pretty satellite pics to view.

[Ianswfl]

A number of ensembles bend a strong hurricane back towards the WNW. Would Irma be a possible good analog?

[ScottNAtlanta]

My experience is when the Euro locks on to something, something will generally develop. The key to what this does in the future rests a lot on what Idalia ends up doing. If it is still roaming around then it has a better chance to go out. If it goes out, then high pressure builds back in and the feature cant go out. Too early to know where, but I am getting pretty confident something will be out there

[ScottNAtlanta]

A number of ensembles bend a strong hurricane back towards the WNW. Would Irma be a possible good analog?

I'd say no

[cycloneye]

In the water now. Looks like invest tag may not be far away. South of 10N a turning.

[Nimbus]

South of 10n thats not good may not find a weakness till the islands.
Model runs with the invest will be interesting.

[mantis83]

The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve

i'd give it about 90% chance of recurve right now

[SFLcane]

The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve

i'd give it about 90% chance of recurve right now

Come on now… let’s not make model predictions 10 days out lots can change and people do live in the islands like our very own “ Luis “. Lots can and will change

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GFS keeps it far south through hour 102, still just under 10N

[Dougiefresh]

The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve

i'd give it about 90% chance of recurve right now

Come on now… let’s not make model predictions 10 days out lots can change and people do live in the islands like our very own “ Luis “. Lots can and will change

Only about 44 million people live in the Caribbean. It certainly grinds my gears when I read post that blatently disregards any storm that looks like it won't hit USA, but plows through the Caribbean Islands.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like most models start hitting the gas on development right as it gets to 50w

[TomballEd]

10 days out, anything is possible. I know models have improved in 15 years, but a 5 day forecast for a W Gulf hurricane was a SEUSA threat. 500 mb heights on Euro op, generally supported by ensembles, doesn't preclude a landfall as far W as Gulf Florida even if individual members don't support that. A fish may be most likely, but nothing is guaranteed, other than models agree on TCG.

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing I do find interesting is assuming some of these ensemble runs are indeed correct, then this system will be going through a Hebert Box at a formidable strength. I understand that Hebert Boxes aren't exactly foolproof, but there's a reason why they have been designated in the first place....

I will also add that this isn't exactly a scenario like Sam, as that occurred at the end of September when persistent troughs were around.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Well Well well, what do we have here? Cabo Verde long tracker? I’m excited to see what this storm is capable of(intensity wise). Hopefully we get a recurve before it hits the islands. We need a fish storm, not a shark storm. (Get it, cuz shark storms would be ocean storms that hit islands)