2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Deshaunrob17]

The only major thing i could see that go wrong is of La Nina gets too strong.. Strong La Ninas can throw an unexpected curveball

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1752774696494301473

[WiscoWx02]

The only major thing i could see that go wrong is of La Nina gets too strong.. Strong La Ninas can throw an unexpected curveball

Same…the most likely hinderance out of anything else other than MDR cooling between now and then but I don’t think a strong La Nina will be able to manifest right out of the gate. Especially when the atmosphere is still firmly in El Nino right now.

[Hurricane2022]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1752774696494301473

At the end of September it will be possible to cook good Italian pasta in the infernal waters of the WCAR, which will be above 34°C

[LarryWx]

The only major thing i could see that go wrong is of La Nina gets too strong.. Strong La Ninas can throw an unexpected curveball

I’d call that going “right” rather than going “wrong” from my perspective of always wanting a relatively quiet season. I’ll be hoping. Here’s something else. Should the cold last half of Feb and early March predicted for the SE US verify, maybe that would bring down GOM SSTs/OHC some for the early season. I know, wishful thinking in this warmer world.

[cycloneye]

JB keeps the 25-30 going.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1752860101747130595

[SFLcane]

This looks pretty scary to say the least. New Feb Cánsips

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This looks pretty scary to say the least. New Feb Cánsips

https://i.postimg.cc/mgFgQLMW/IMG-8427.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/WzCP3Z5F/IMG-8430.gif

Legend has it if you look up "hyperactive" in the dictionary you'll see this graphic.


In all seriousness hopefully this doesn't verify. That's about as good as it gets when it comes to NATL favorability.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1752870120072912944

[cycloneye]

Mark the Febuary 8th date.

1- The CPC ENSO Febuary update will be out when they will give the latest percent for Neutral. In the January one, it had 73% of Neutral by June.

2-The NMME climate model will be out with the Febuary update.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/adrianlinares28/status/1752874984261693882

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/adrianlinares28/status/1752874984261693882

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1753009618513453331

[Category5Kaiju]

In previous years, it has always seemed, during the pre-season, as if there was at least one factor that was preventing us from immediately concluding that a season would be very active and impactful. Last year, it was the imminent strong Nino. In 2022, it was rather meager sst anomalies and a third year Nina. In 2021, it was the Atlantic Nino.

This year is on another planet in regards to this. It's almost to the point that I don't really have much to comment on aside from the fact that we seriously need to be prepared.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

In previous years, it has always seemed, during the pre-season, as if there was at least one factor that was preventing us from immediately concluding that a season would be very active and impactful. Last year, it was the imminent strong Nino. In 2022, it was rather meager sst anomalies and a third year Nina. In 2021, it was the Atlantic Nino.

This year is on another planet in regards to this. It's almost to the point that I don't really have much to comment on aside from the fact that we seriously need to be prepared.

Talked about this a while back but it's worth mentioning 2021's strong Atlantic Nino actually aided early season MDR development with Elsa. Outside of the ITCZ being lower in latitude which allowed for the precursor wave to lay low away from the usual early season suspects and keep it over warmer waters there was actually a bit of a a trade wind reversal (almost like a mini-WWB of sorts) near the equatorial Atlantic which enhanced background vorticity and ultimately helped get Elsa going, was a really cool and rare phenomenon. But of course you're probably alluding to late season where waves could not gain sufficient latitude to develop in the WATL, though an unfavorable intraseasonal state also didn't help matters.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/adrianlinares28/status/1753056593866887307

[SFLcane]

Certainly not surprised given the difference in SSTA

 https://x.com/adrianlinares28/status/1753056593866887307

[DioBrando]

Certainly not surprised given the difference in SSTA

 https://x.com/adrianlinares28/status/1753056593866887307

at this rate we might as well have a February alberto and an april beryl

[tolakram]

How about Sahara dust? Any indicators we can look at to predict how good or bad dust outbreaks will be? From the looks of it we will need MDR activity to reach a hyperactive season, which means dust is going to be a factor. I'm not claiming to know anything here, just asking.

[WeatherBoy2000]

How about Sahara dust? Any indicators we can look at to predict how good or bad dust outbreaks will be? From the looks of it we will need MDR activity to reach a hyperactive season, which means dust is going to be a factor. I'm not claiming to know anything here, just asking.

There was a twitter thread by I think Eric Webb that talked about how a warmer Canary current region typically lends itself towards a more moist deep tropics with less dry air/SAL issues. How warm that region is by the summer might give us a clue on how much dry air will be issue.

[TheWisestofAll]

How about Sahara dust? Any indicators we can look at to predict how good or bad dust outbreaks will be? From the looks of it we will need MDR activity to reach a hyperactive season, which means dust is going to be a factor. I'm not claiming to know anything here, just asking.

There was a twitter thread by I think Eric Webb that talked about how a warmer Canary current region typically lends itself towards a more moist deep tropics with less dry air/SAL issues. How warm that region is by the summer might give us a clue on how much dry air will be issue.

If its anything like last year then we have a lot to worry about. SAL was basically down around peak season levels the entire summer, and we didn't get any major dust outbreaks until late. I don't believe dry air in general was that big of an issue either, but the shear from the competing Nino probably played a factor in whatever effect it did have.