Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

Looks like it’s go time!

[Ivanhater]

Would have been better if the models were correct a couple days ago and developed much earlier. This is becoming a lot more dangerous for the Gulf

[kevin]

06z ICON also shows a strengthening TS at +120 hrs with a TD already forming around +84 hrs.

[Ivanhater]

06z ICON also shows a strengthening TS at +120 hrs with a TD already forming around +84 hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/a0noQG2.png

That would be better news if it develops earlier like the ICON. Plenty of ensembles show a wide open escape hatch if it develops earlier as shown.

[BobHarlem]

Didn't have Tampa Bay Hurricane landfall on my mind yesterday but here it is on the 6z GFS:

[chris_fit]

Living near Tampa, being in the bulls eye is exactly where you want to be 10+ days out

Seriously though, what a turn of events in the last 12 hours.

[jfk08c]

Living near Tampa, being in the bulls eye is exactly where you want to be 10+ days out

Seriously though, what a turn of events in the last 12 hours.

Sometimes the models are late for work, need to let them get a coffee and wake up a little

[SFLcane]

358
ABNT20 KNHC 291133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[jlauderdal]

Living near Tampa, being in the bulls eye is exactly where you want to be 10+ days out

Seriously though, what a turn of events in the last 12 hours.

Tampa will not take a direct if it can avoid Ian and Debby; all is well in Tampa. Seriously, I like your chances with the bullseye on top of you for now. Operational run entertainment was provided this morning, lets see what happens in reality.

[jlauderdal]

358
ABNT20 KNHC 291133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

That is a solid move by NHC; they like what they are seeing.

[chris_fit]

Looks like the 06Z GFS ENS are still quite perky, about the same as 00Z - but quite a bit further north than the OP.

[chris_fit]

Clearly, according to the 06Z GFS ENS, the earlier it's stronger, the more likely it is to recurve away from SE US. The stronger members here are about to recurve.

[Ivanhater]

Clearly, according to the 06Z GFS ENS, the earlier it's stronger, the more likely it is to recurve away from SE US. The stronger members here are about to recurve.

https://i.imgur.com/F0rLqpC.png

Yep. Still may get lucky with a clear escape hatch

[Teban54]

In the past 18 hours, GEFS just went from having the strongest support for the system among all models to having the weakest support (in terms of quantity alone, not intensity).

[chris_fit]

In the past 12 hours, GEFS just went from having the strongest support for the system among all models to having the weakest support (in terms of quantity alone, not intensity).

I think you have that backwards? Support is very strong right now.


Here's GEFS 06Z @ 10 days...... Anyone's game.

[USTropics]

Clearly, according to the 06Z GFS ENS, the earlier it's stronger, the more likely it is to recurve away from SE US. The stronger members here are about to recurve.

https://i.imgur.com/F0rLqpC.png

I'd add to this that consolidation latitude and downstream steering flow is playing a part here as well.

Below is the 500mb heights ensemble mean with ensemble member tracks of the latest GFS (06z) run for next Friday (186 hours) as well as the 00z ECMWF run for the same time frame (192 hours). I've outlined the orientation of the trough here in green for both. Notice the GFS ensemble mean is much more progressive and amplified, whereas the ECMWF ensemble mean is much flatter and slower with the progression. I've also circled the northern consolidation point (along the northern wave axis in red) and if consolidation occurs more along the southern wave axis (in purple). This will also play a pivotal role in the eventual track.

GFS ensembles:


ECMWF ensembles:

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1829130895829139796

[Teban54]

In the past 12 hours, GEFS just went from having the strongest support for the system among all models to having the weakest support (in terms of quantity alone, not intensity).

I think you have that backwards? Support is very strong right now.


Here's GEFS 06Z @ 10 days...... Anyone's game.

https://i.imgur.com/oeZHAos.png

What I meant is that GEFS's number of members developing this wave hasn't changed drastically from the most recent runs, as it still has only about 50% of members showing a TC. But during the same time frame, EPS massively uptrended in members showing development, and operational models basically went from "0% chance" (no development) to "100% chance" (development).

Yes, GEFS members are quite strong in intensity, but that wasn't the point.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely have to keep an eye on this one... already on a nasty heading.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1829125995955097619