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2026 ENSO Updates
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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wxman57
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates
Now a 61% of El Nino by the summer. Hopefully this means a quiet season. Last season was VERY quiet, unless you were in Jamaica. It only takes one...
https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/figure1.png
https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/figure1.png
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cycloneye
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates: CPC probability of El Niño for ASO is up to 61%
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cycloneye
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates: CPC probability of El Niño for ASO is up to 61%
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cycloneye
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates
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DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates
I know the seasonal Euro typically has a warm bias but this is a stronger forecast than Feb 2023, and that event ended up on the upper end of the general plume...
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Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
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cycloneye
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates
@AndyHazelton
ECMWF seasonal guidance continues to show El Niño quickly developing by summer. The main uncertainty at this point seems to be in the magnitude of the event (ensemble ranges from a weak/moderate event to a Super Niño).
On the Atlantic side, the SST configuration reminds me of 2021, with an Atlantic Niño forecast but warmth otherwise concentrated in the subtropics. The big difference is 2021 was a La Niña year, so I expect shear and subsidence will be a much bigger issue this year.
Consistent with this, the precip anomalies show a much drier than usual setup across the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean. Surface pressures are forecast to be higher than normal as well.
Overall, I continue to think (at this range) that we'll probably have an Atlantic hurricane season that struggles to reach average, and may even end up well below average (depending on how strong the El Niño is). Still a little ways to go, though.
https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2019400508419489910
ECMWF seasonal guidance continues to show El Niño quickly developing by summer. The main uncertainty at this point seems to be in the magnitude of the event (ensemble ranges from a weak/moderate event to a Super Niño).
On the Atlantic side, the SST configuration reminds me of 2021, with an Atlantic Niño forecast but warmth otherwise concentrated in the subtropics. The big difference is 2021 was a La Niña year, so I expect shear and subsidence will be a much bigger issue this year.
Consistent with this, the precip anomalies show a much drier than usual setup across the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean. Surface pressures are forecast to be higher than normal as well.
Overall, I continue to think (at this range) that we'll probably have an Atlantic hurricane season that struggles to reach average, and may even end up well below average (depending on how strong the El Niño is). Still a little ways to go, though.
https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2019400508419489910
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cycloneye
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates
Will only say "yikes".
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Iceresistance
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:Will only say "yikes".
https://i.imgur.com/ECaAVY0.gif
https://i.imgur.com/lenK0BC.gif
It's one of those things that makes you go
Hopefully, that does limit the NATL season, but remember, all it takes is one!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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cycloneye
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates
There are warm waters on the 7 day change from both OISST and Coral Reef in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific.
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mixedDanilo.E
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates
Decent trades popping up on the GFS latest hovmollers forecast. It's February so this is probably La Nina's last stand. I'll be interested to see if and how strong we get a WWB in the spring.
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