Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

[Thunder44]

I'm little bit concerned that it lost so much convection this evening. But I expect it will gain back some more overnight. I don't see it entraining any dry air.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050801 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050801 0000 050801 1200 050802 0000 050802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 63.2W 13.7N 66.5W 15.2N 69.4W 16.9N 71.9W
BAMM 12.7N 63.2W 13.6N 66.2W 14.9N 68.9W 16.2N 71.5W
A98E 12.7N 63.2W 13.3N 66.7W 14.2N 69.7W 15.2N 72.3W
LBAR 12.7N 63.2W 13.7N 66.6W 15.0N 69.9W 16.2N 72.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050803 0000 050804 0000 050805 0000 050806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 73.7W 19.7N 76.5W 20.3N 79.5W 20.6N 82.0W
BAMM 17.3N 73.7W 18.7N 77.8W 19.5N 82.1W 20.2N 85.8W
A98E 16.0N 74.5W 18.6N 78.5W 20.7N 82.3W 22.6N 85.4W
LBAR 17.1N 75.1W 18.6N 78.8W 20.4N 81.8W 22.6N 83.3W
SHIP 58KTS 70KTS 77KTS 80KTS
DSHP 58KTS 70KTS 77KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 59.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 56.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Run of models for 93L.

[Stormcenter]

I'm little bit concerned that it lost so much convection this evening. But I expect it will gain back some more overnight. I don't see it entraining any dry air.

Wouldn't that be good news?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm little bit concerned that it lost so much convection this evening. But I expect it will gain back some more overnight. I don't see it entraining any dry air.

Wouldn't that be good news?

Not if you went to hang 1995 upside down...

[johngaltfla]

I'm little bit concerned that it lost so much convection this evening. But I expect it will gain back some more overnight. I don't see it entraining any dry air.

Concerned? I'd prefer it entrain some dry air and drift west into Central America. I'll be quite happy to keep my plywood locked up for another month, thank you very much.

On a more curious note, the local wx guys and gals felt that according to the "models" and "their models" something might develop in 24 to 48 hours.

I don't see the LLC so anyone with a good clue on the center, please fill me in...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also remember if this forms it will be likely the I storm. Because Harvey is developing over the northeastern Atlatnic.

[WindRunner]

Seems like the models are finally picking up on some of the shear over the western carib, even though it's down to about 30kts

[Anonymous]

GOM has to watch

[johngaltfla]

GOM has to watch

Ugh. That's the path from hell, especially as the cold fronts "suddenly" start to drop into the Florida panhandle.

Like last August 13th....

[Ivanhater]

dang it dang it dang it i swear if this develops and heads along that path people in my area will have a stress attack!

[deltadog03]

calm down...lol...it will be ok...just because something MIGHT*** come in the gulf dosn't mean its coming your way....

[johngaltfla]

calm down...lol...it will be ok...just because something MIGHT*** come in the gulf dosn't mean its coming your way....

Yes, but we are all sort of hung up on "that" date down here. Last year was the proverbial rude awakening for many of us....

[Ivanhater]

calm down...lol...it will be ok...just because something MIGHT*** come in the gulf dosn't mean its coming your way....

haa, yes i know that, but at this point it doesnt matter, anything in the gulf will make people around here go crazy, its the here we go again, lol

[Swimdude]

VERY interesting shift in the models. Where would this go after it passes the Yucatan, is the question...

[deltadog03]

yeah, i know....i was playin...but, yall have been hit very hard....heck who knows...

[cycloneye]

KNHC 010226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA...IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

A little cluster of thunderstorms have developed now near the "presumed" center. Watch them grow overnight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now that is what you call popcorn convection. That shows that there is a low there. In the system is about ready to get oreganized.

[Ivanhater]

yeah, i know....i was playin...but, yall have been hit very hard....heck who knows...

lol, no offense but if they were to go in the gulf i hope they keep going to texas, nothing big, im sure yall wouldnt mind taking a few off floridas hands, help your fellow gommers out

[boca]

The models have trended more north then yesterday they had 93L heading into Central America.