95L Invest Thread

[hicksta]

HERE FISHY FISHY

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember Andrew???

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[hicksta]

Nope. Dont want to

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at the Tchp over around 25 to 35 north around 55 to 65 west. Even if this becomes a fish it could be a cat5 this year.


Also its developing popcorn convection. Its LLC is becoming very well defined. There is no quastion what this thing is with the banding forming. But will the nhc do it?

[MortisFL]

In my opinion they could classify this as a TD at 5am.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with what others said. It's stupid to call this a fish or a non-fish, for sure because we really don't know. Even though I said earlier that storms that move in this direction due tend to recurve, that doesn't mean this one will. Nobody knows how strong the ridge will be so to call it a fish FOR SURE doesn't make sense.

[clfenwi]

UKMET text guidance

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.8N 29.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 04.08.2005 12.8N 29.1W WEAK

12UTC 04.08.2005 13.7N 30.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2005 14.4N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2005 15.2N 36.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.08.2005 16.1N 38.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.08.2005 16.4N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.08.2005 17.2N 42.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.08.2005 18.1N 43.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.08.2005 19.1N 45.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.08.2005 20.2N 47.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.08.2005 21.2N 49.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.08.2005 22.1N 50.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.08.2005 23.7N 51.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Tropicswatcher]

No picnic for the caribbean if this low is already moving northwest. OK.......next

[clfenwi]

825
WHXX01 KWBC 040653
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050804 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 0600 050804 1800 050805 0600 050805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 31.3W 12.8N 33.1W 13.1N 35.2W 13.7N 37.3W
BAMM 12.5N 31.3W 12.7N 32.9W 12.8N 34.9W 13.2N 36.9W
A98E 12.5N 31.3W 12.7N 33.5W 13.0N 36.0W 13.0N 38.7W
LBAR 12.5N 31.3W 12.7N 33.6W 13.3N 36.2W 14.1N 39.1W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 0600 050807 0600 050808 0600 050809 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 39.3W 15.7N 42.6W 17.4N 45.9W 19.9N 48.9W
BAMM 13.8N 38.9W 15.5N 42.4W 17.3N 46.3W 19.3N 49.7W
A98E 12.4N 41.3W 12.1N 46.1W 11.0N 50.6W 9.9N 54.5W
LBAR 14.6N 42.0W 16.1N 48.4W 16.5N 53.4W 15.6N 55.3W
SHIP 54KTS 62KTS 65KTS 67KTS
DSHP 54KTS 62KTS 65KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 31.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 29.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 27.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like a re-positioning of the center as the 00Z models were initialized with a position of 12.3 N 29.3 W... nevertheless, BAM finds pretty much the same final answer...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They must be waiting for visible?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What the #$@#?

04/0530 UTC 12.4N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 95


This is higher then a 1.0 by satellite/quickscat.

[clfenwi]

What the #$@#?

04/0530 UTC 12.4N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 95


This is higher then a 1.0 by satellite/quickscat.

Where in the Dvorak Analysis Method does it say 'examine the Quickscat product'?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is really starting to wrap up fast now. Popcorn convection is firing right over the center. Impressive.

[MortisFL]

This thing is really starting to wrap up fast now. Popcorn convection is firing right over the center. Impressive.

Yep, lots of t-storms associated with it that has persisted.

[senorpepr]

What the #$@#?

04/0530 UTC 12.4N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 95


This is higher then a 1.0 by satellite/quickscat.

Where in the Dvorak Analysis Method does it say 'examine the Quickscat product'?

Exactly... people need to keep in mind that the Dvorak technique is not a very subjective procedure and isn't adjusted upwards and downwards based on anything other than satellite.

[MortisFL]

No more 3-6 hr satellite images on 95L

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

[Thunder44]

5:30am TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

[MortisFL]

06z GFS showing 95L to be a possible Bermuda threat down the road. Of course this will change run to run.

[EDR1222]

It looks pretty impressive on Satellite, at least infrared. Anxiously awaiting the visibles today.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm staying up waiting for the freaking Advisorie.