TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WindRunner]

I know everything is just as good on the weekends, I know a met works practically 24/7/365, and I appreciate that. I'm not trying to offend anyone here, I'm just trying to explain my thoughts (and those of elysium), right or wrong.

[Air Force Met]

And I don't say that they are. Just that if your best sat analyzer takes the weekends off, then the data you use from sats will not have been analyzed as well and your forecasts will not be as hi-qual as they could have been.

That's not the way it works. Sometimes your best analyzer is on the swing shift during the weekend and is gone on Monday.

Weather shops are not set up like you guys think. You never know when the really good ones are working...but chances are they are not the ones on Monday morning...they could just as easily be the guy or gal working the saturday night mid shift. Most weather work is shift work...rotating shifts.

[jabber]

Does anyone one see what appears to be a mid level spin to the south east of the LLC. Look at the latest vis loop

[WindRunner]

Yeah, I guess your right that they could be working anytime. I picked a bad point to defend without enough knowledge of the area (seems like I do that a lot).

[wx247]

Elysium also needs to remember to post the disclaimer. We don't want someone taking those posts as official info.

[clfenwi]

deleted post as it was redundant.... Air Force Met made the point I was going to make

[Derek Ortt]

Windrunner,

will you please listen to what some of the other mets are saying?

1. Obs are not inputted by humans. To say that the models aren't of as high a quality is rediculous, especially after other mets have said as such

2. The best workers likely are working now. This is not a 9-5 job. To say that the best are not working is also wrong

3. Upper air model forecasts over the Atlantic are always garbage as there is never any good data that goes into the models, except for a G-IV flight

[cycloneye]

Elysium Please post a disclaimer before you do a forecast and also if you do a forecast bring scientific data that can sustent what you are saying.

[senorpepr]

And I don't say that they are. Just that if your best sat analyzer takes the weekends off, then the data you use from sats will not have been analyzed as well and your forecasts will not be as hi-qual as they could have been.

Okay... I've gotta step in here...

To say that the best forecasters or satellite analyzers have the weekends off is bogus. As a professional met myself, I can assure you that the "best forecasters" aren't scheduled any particular shift, especially a day job.

On the majority, and including the NHC and NWS, meteorologists are shift workers. Some days they are working a day shift... some days they are working a swing (evening)... some days they are working a mid (overnight). The life of a meteorologist knows no normal life. We're always rotating.

As AFM said, you never know what given forecaster is working and their specific strengths or weaknesses.

The forecasters' shifts are pretty much at chance... they don't specifically schedule the better forecasters during the week. These same great forecasters are the same people who are leaving their own families during Christmas dinner just to make sure the job/mission is completed.

As for the "normal day forecasters"... there aren't any. "Day-weenies," as they are affectionately referred to, are staff people... the managers. They have no hand at what's being forecasted... they just care that it's forecasted and it's done well. It's not the managers' job to second-guess their forecasters thoughts.

As for the NHC not being about to coordinate with NWS during the weekends... I wouldn't call it coordination. The NHC has the role of forecasting all cyclones in the Atlantic basin, as directed by the WMO. The NWS listens to what the NHC has to say. There really is no coordinating, unless it involves foreign nations.

As for model data... there isn't a difference between a Wednesday or a Sunday. It's all computerized.

[elysium]

Actually, the NHC and the NWS should be fully staffed every weekend hereafter assuming a busy season. This weekend is unique because it is offering perhaps the only weekend off that many of the staff will be seeing until possibly late October. There is normally a full crew during the season's peek, but that's why we have a skeleton crew now. That's common.

But something here is going on now that also hasn't been addressed due to the above; the main LLC may not be the one to the northwest of the convection. It appears as though the center is relocating to the south while the center to the northwest opens and dissipates. No big deal but this is another item that would have almost surely been addressed had this been Monday. The important issue, however, concerning recurvature vs. a sharp turn to the west, is also not being discussed in detail. I am a little stumped about why the NHC is forecasting a weakening ridge. That's like 7 days out on some of the models from the 5th. Just look at the ridge over Irene this hour and powerfully pushing in from behind. Look at Harvey accerate to it. The only thing that I can think of here is that it is so obvious that the weakness is rapidly accelerating and will not be there in time to pick up Irene that someone is assuming that a weak ridge itself must therefore be the culprit behind the recurvature. But there is no weakness in that ridge.

Anyway, what will be addressed Monday will be the relocation of the center to the south. That's where it should all start.

[gkrangers]

Elysium..what the hell are you talking about?

[senorpepr]

Actually, the NHC and the NWS should be fully staffed every weekend hereafter assuming a busy season. This weekend is unique because it is offering perhaps the only weekend off that many of the staff will be seeing until possibly late October. There is normally a full crew during the season's peek, but that's why we have a skeleton crew now. That's common.

I don't think you've grasped the aforementioned comments. The NHC and NWS is not under a skeleton crew. Now... if you are referring to the fact that the staff is not at work this weekend... that is to be expected. There really isn't a reason for them to be there unless a storm is making landfall to the US.

Rest assured... the NHC is staffed well enough to accomplish the mission at hand and therefore do not need additional manpower.

The more people on shift now... the more hectic it will be. Remember... too many chefs spoil the broth.

[jrod]

I think I see Irene spilting in two. The LLC to the north and another MLC, possible LLC further south and east.

If it does reform further south this may not be a fish after all.

[elysium]

Skeleton crew was a poor choice of wording.

[clfenwi]

As I've been saying, the convection with the old MLC continues to fade out while new convection fires up on the western side of the LLC that is well to the northwest of the old MLC.

I don't see any LLC associated with the MLC that was sheared off. I think what people are seeing as an LLC associated with the old MLC is actually the 'tail' from the LLC proper (south-north circulation) below the MLC (which is spinning, creating the illusion of a surface LLC).

[elysium]

Well, I can't really can't tell which one is the dominant center here. For what ever reason, we will have to wait until tomorrow before hearing a detailed analysis on what exactly is going on. Unfortunately, I am lacking the necessary meteorological scientific instrumentation to give a complete rendition of the immediate foregoing and current synopsis of Irene. I can guess and say that the LLC to the northwest will dissipate due to lack of convection. It appears as though the southern LLC is stripping its northern counterpart. But i don't know. If I could do a drop (lol) you could take my gut instinct here to the bank. We have to wait until Moday, but that's what it looks like is happening.

By the way, this could be important. Can't say.

[WindRunner]

Windrunner,

will you please listen to what some of the other mets are saying?

1. Obs are not inputted by humans. To say that the models aren't of as high a quality is rediculous, especially after other mets have said as such

2. The best workers likely are working now. This is not a 9-5 job. To say that the best are not working is also wrong

3. Upper air model forecasts over the Atlantic are always garbage as there is never any good data that goes into the models, except for a G-IV flight

I understand what everyone has been saying, I'm just explaining how elysium was thinking when she made her post.

[Astro_man92]

the Circulation that is more difined is the main one ( it is the one that is furthest north in the system)

[Air Force Met]

As I've been saying, the convection with the old MLC continues to fade out while new convection fires up on the western side of the LLC that is well to the northwest of the old MLC.

I don't see any LLC associated with the MLC that was sheared off. I think what people are seeing as an LLC associated with the old MLC is actually the 'tail' from the LLC proper (south-north circulation) below the MLC (which is spinning, creating the illusion of a surface LLC).

Exactly. There is no low level spin to the southeast of the LLC. The LLC is too tightly wrapped to allow for another LLC to form to the SE. The low level flow is too strong to allow that to happen. This feature will die over the next 12-18 hours. The current LLC is too wound up to allow for any competition around it...especially given the convection is not that deep and begining to wain some.

[wxmann_91]

As I've been saying, the convection with the old MLC continues to fade out while new convection fires up on the western side of the LLC that is well to the northwest of the old MLC.

My thoughts exactly.