Katrina Strengthening

[gatorcane]

which way is it moving? It looks like it is drifting WNW

[WeatherEmperor]

Im just saying here not -removed-, if this thing does develop and ends up causing more problems then our current thinking, then there is gonna be a major crow-fest here unlike any other that Storm2K has ever seen.

<RICKY>

[sma10]

The 12Z models were initialized at 290 degrees at 7 knots. Ironically, the LBAR fwiw, tracks the system over Boca at 49knots then up the seaboard to near the South Carolina coast in 5 days as a 78knot hurricane.

I forecast by tomorrow I'll be changing this thread title from:

"Who in South Florida is Starting to Get Nervous?"

to

"Who in South Florida is Nervous About Katrina?"

God forbid this system becomes a TS! You'll have to change the title to "Who in South Florida is Having Full Blown Panic Attacks About Tropical Storm Katrina?"

If it strengthens into a hurricane, I'll send you other potential titles.....

[gatorcane]

God forbid this system becomes a TS! You'll have to change the title to "Who in South Florida is Having Full Blown Panic Attacks About Tropical Storm Katrina?"

If it strengthens into a hurricane, I'll send you other potential titles.....

I'll have to admit that was funny

[boca]

Boca_Chris this thing could blow up like a balloon and you can see in the sat from my previous post its probably already a depression.

[gatorcane]

Boca_Chris this thing could blow up like a balloon and you can see in the sat from my previous post its probably already a depression.

That is what I've been worried about for the past several days, that it is going to bomb...what do you think?

[skysummit]

I don't know about bombing....at least not until it gets into the gulf, but I do believe we'll see a Cat 2 out of it if conditions continue to improve.

[sma10]

Im just saying here not -removed-, if this thing does develop and ends up causing more problems then our current thinking, then there is gonna be a major crow-fest here unlike any other that Storm2K has ever seen.

<RICKY>

Ricky, the only reason that there'll be a crow-fest is because many tropic watchers lack patience.

Example: TD10 forms --"Look at it! It's approaching Florida and the hot waters! It's gonna be a major cane!"; TD10 dissipates -- "It's dead! Get over it people! It's dead and buried!"

Note that the NHC in its TWO after TD10 dissipated stated that the remnant low was very disorganized and regeneration "was not expected over the next couple of days." They never said the magic words: "regeneration is NO LONGER EXPECTED." Personally, I don't think they are the least bit surprised by this comeback.

[boca]

I think their labeling this 99L not TD10.

[gatorcane]

Personally, I don't think they are the least bit surprised by this comeback.

True but they are always very conservative. They could not make a statement like "it is not forecasted to ever reorganize." But there were *many* on this board that were convinced it was gone.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im just saying here not -removed-, if this thing does develop and ends up causing more problems then our current thinking, then there is gonna be a major crow-fest here unlike any other that Storm2K has ever seen.

<RICKY>

Ricky, the only reason that there'll be a crow-fest is because many tropic watchers lack patience.

Example: TD10 forms --"Look at it! It's approaching Florida and the hot waters! It's gonna be a major cane!"; TD10 dissipates -- "It's dead! Get over it people! It's dead and buried!"

Note that the NHC in its TWO after TD10 dissipated stated that the remnant low was very disorganized and regeneration "was not expected over the next couple of days." They never said the magic words: "regeneration is NO LONGER EXPECTED." Personally, I don't think they are the least bit surprised by this comeback.

wow that was nicely writen and couldnt agree more.

<RICKY>

[Trader Ron]

Im just saying here not -removed-, if this thing does develop and ends up causing more problems then our current thinking, then there is gonna be a major crow-fest here unlike any other that Storm2K has ever seen.

<RICKY>

Example: TD10 forms --"Look at it! It's approaching Florida and the hot waters! It's gonna be a major cane!"; TD10 dissipates -- "It's dead! Get over it people! It's dead and buried!"

Note that the NHC in its TWO after TD10 dissipated stated that the remnant low was very disorganized and regeneration "was not expected over the next couple of days." They never said the magic words: "regeneration is NO LONGER EXPECTED." Personally, I don't think they are the least bit surprised by this comeback.

I would be a lot more nervous eating Crow, than experiencing any Hurricane.

[fci]

If a Cat 5 is bearing down on Miami expect around 1-2 thousands posts per day in this thread. Even that could be an understatement...

<RICKY>

It would NOT require a cat 5 to bring 1000-2000 posts.
A hurricane, Cat 1, 2 .... bearing down on Miami would generate it.

I said 1-2 thousand posts per DAY, not overall.

<RICKY>

Oh, I WAS referring to a day too!!!

[sma10]

True but they are always very conservative.

And why do you think they are always very conservative? Because if they were not conservative, the tropics will make them look like fools over and over and over again. And then people will no longer take any of their forecasts seriously.

They could not make a statement like "it is not forecasted to ever reorganize."

Sure they can. They may not word it exactly like that, but many times I've read a TWO that read something like, "the remnants of TD10 continue to remain disorganized. Regeneration of this system is no longer expected."

Trust me that is very different than "Regeneration of this system is not expected over the next day or two."

[SouthFloridawx]

start wetting your pants... LOL

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks pretty scary for the FL east coast doesnt it?

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

thanks for that map....

[sma10]

But there were *many* on this board that were convinced it was gone.

This might be your first clue that there is a bit of a difference between the forecasting prowess of the NHC and "the many on this board."

[sma10]

Looks pretty scary for the FL east coast doesnt it?

<RICKY>

Sure does. Everybody start throwing their patio furniture in the swimming pool!

[SouthFloridawx]

LOL