TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Stormcenter]

Question: right now if Katrina traveled over a populated area would it do much of anything???

Knock down a few branches and that's it.

[jkt21787]

Question: right now if Katrina traveled over a populated area would it do much of anything???

Knock down a few branches and that's it.

Maybe a bit more, but nothing real bad.

Trees, some power lines may come down, which could lead to some power outages. Windows could be blown out, especially if hit by a tree. Maybe some shingles taken off the roof or minor damage there, but nothing really bad structurally.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

There would be lots of flooding if she was moving slowly. Remember Houston a few years ago and a small TS (Allison). Damage from flooding with a slow moving weak TS can be worse than the damage from a fast moving Cat 2. Plus, many places in South Florida are at above average rainfall for 2005.

[Astro_man92]

Question: right now if Katrina traveled over a populated area would it do much of anything???

Not so much. It's a big rain event right now, that's all.

Things could change before Florida landfall, though.

That is really what I thought thanks.

[milankovitch]

Hey this is my first post on this site although I've been reading the boards for a while now.

Haven't seen the 18Z runs posted yet so here.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The 06Z run of the GFDL was a little disconcerting, the 12Z run was even more intense. What are everyones thoughts on the upper end of possibilities. The GFDL runs are a little too intense in my opinion, however I think there is an outside chance (10-20%) of a strong cat 2.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Katrina, you have such a lovely name, but please don't bother me here in NC. If you had been a small Category 1 hurricane, then I would've opened the door and welcomed you. But now, I'm worried you're going to be the first remnant TD of the season to stop by here, and those are always annoying, considering the amount of rain they dump on us.

Sheesh, I'm talking to a tropical storm. Do I have issues or what?

[Brent]

Katrina, you have such a lovely name, but please don't bother me here in NC. If you had been a small Category 1 hurricane, then I would've opened the door and welcomed you. But now, I'm worried you're going to be the first remnant TD of the season to stop by here, and those are always annoying, considering the amount of rain they dump on us.

Sheesh, I'm talking to a tropical storm. Do I have issues or what?

We all do it... we just don't talk about it.

[Astro_man92]

Katrina, you have such a lovely name, but please don't bother me here in NC. If you had been a small Category 1 hurricane, then I would've opened the door and welcomed you. But now, I'm worried you're going to be the first remnant TD of the season to stop by here, and those are always annoying, considering the amount of rain they dump on us.

Sheesh, I'm talking to a tropical storm. Do I have issues or what?

We all do it... we just don't talk about it.

lol that is so very true lol

[superfly]

The 06Z run of the GFDL was a little disconcerting, the 12Z run was even more intense. What are everyones thoughts on the upper end of possibilities. The GFDL runs are a little too intense in my opinion, however I think there is an outside chance (10-20%) of a strong cat 2.

GDFL has it missing the Florida peninsula to the south which allows it to stay over water which is why it has it intensifying so much.

[deltadog03]

oh for what its worth...the 12z euro shifted west....and now shows this...sorry for your ivan survivors

[img=http://img395.imageshack.us/img395/3416/12zeuro5sp.th.gif]

[Ivanhater]

oh for what its worth...the 12z euro shifted west....and now shows this...sorry for your ivan survivors

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5082412!!/

ugh...well you would think were used to it by now...it is getting very old

[deltadog03]

i know....im sorry...i just don't buy the easterly shift by the models....but, hey lets worry about florida first

[Ivanhater]

i know....im sorry...i just don't buy the easterly shift by the models....but, hey lets worry about florida first

ya, im not sold on the eastward shift either....but well have to wait for a trend in the models

[shaggy]

anybody know when the gulfstream IV data goes into the models today? What effect might that have on them since more have trended with a sharper right hook bringing it north sooner back toward NE GOM

[clfenwi]

Gulfstream-IV obs will go into the 00Z globals, which start running at about 11 PM EDT.

The 00Z NHC guidance WILL NOT have the benefit of the new observations as they use the 18Z GFS for the steering current analysis and forecast.

[sponger]

Welcome milankovitch! I wont trust anything until 3 days out! The models are all over the place!

[dwg71]

Anybody going to Disneyworld tomorrow? Take an umbrella, you'll need it. I think central florida is going to see extensive rain from Katrina..

[mel38]

local met here in palm beach think landfall more north at 11. sorry if already posted

[dwg71]

local met here in palm beach think landfall more north at 11. sorry if already posted

I think you will see NHC path over the lake at 11PM, and even further east on second landfall.

[Recurve]

Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.