Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

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Ivanhater
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#161 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:58 am

vaffie wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I'm starting to buy into the GFS and generally the GFDL solution of closing this off today and bringing it across the peninsula into the GOM, albeit slowly.

Looks like we could have a TD by the end of today looking at the trend of the past 24hrs and radar out of Miami..........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml


i dont want to buy something that comes to our area, lol


I agree with you, but as far as I'm concerned, I think it already has closed off, if you look at the Quikscat map at
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_3.html,
you will see a definitive strong west to east wind south of the storm. It has a good circulation all around it right now. It is closed off. Also, for four hours last night, Homestead had a western component in it's winds. It is all a bad sign...
-vaffie[/img]



ya, i agree, it looks to be an organizing day today
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#162 Postby MortisFL » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:59 am

Outflow starting to expand more with 94L...could see a TD before the end of the day.
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#163 Postby wx247 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:01 am

Latest look at the floater loop and I agree... this is not good.

Image
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#164 Postby NastyCat4 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:07 am

Bam models and A98 are virtually useless. They are ancient code writing, and don't have any semblance of accuracy. If any model is to be believed, the dynamic models do better. I can't think of a single instance of the Bams verifying in the past 2 years.
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#165 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:10 am

NastyCat4 wrote:Bam models and A98 are virtually useless. They are ancient code writing, and don't have any semblance of accuracy. If any model is to be believed, the dynamic models do better. I can't think of a single instance of the Bams verifying in the past 2 years.


thats true, but gfs and gfdl are left at this point
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it won't be too long...

#166 Postby Jeffweather » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:11 am

before it is a TD... it now has the circulation and there's no doubt convection is expanding.

and looking at the mean layer winds and the fact that a strong ridge is developing along the eastern seaboard... it points to an eventual westward track.

it is going to initially be nearly stationary as it is now... then it will track slowly north. There's little doubt in my mind that it will eventually curve westward so the "key" as far as i see it is... how far north it gets before it begins that track westward across florida. That will determine how much time it will have over the Gulf before it makes landfall.

Jeff
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#167 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:26 am

Looks like a very rainy and breezy to windy week over the peninsula.
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#168 Postby rockyman » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:51 am

Wow! I've been away for a couple of hours and this system has really started to get its act together...I'm in a quandry about whether to return to Dauphin Island tomorrow or to just stay put in my hotel in Meridian...I'm afraid that if I give up this room, and evacs are ordered in a couple of days, no rooms will be available.

Actually, this would be a nightmare scenario for the Mobile area...if this storm does develop and head this direction, there are virtually NO hotels in Alabama or NW Florida with any vacancies. :oops:
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#169 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:53 am

rockyman wrote:Wow! I've been away for a couple of hours and this system has really started to get its act together...I'm in a quandry about whether to return to Dauphin Island tomorrow or to just stay put in my hotel in Meridian...I'm afraid that if I give up this room, and evacs are ordered in a couple of days, no rooms will be available.

Actually, this would be a nightmare scenario for the Mobile area...if this storm does develop and head this direction, there are virtually NO hotels in Alabama or NW Florida with any vacancies. :oops:


exactly, and usa campus is finally opening back up tomorrow and im ready to go back!!!
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#170 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:54 am

This morning conditions have gotten windier and brezier over Tampa Bay.
The tight gradient between 94L and the ridge is getting even tighter.
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#171 Postby vaffie » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:55 am

rockyman wrote: Actually, this would be a nightmare scenario for the Mobile area...if this storm does develop and head this direction, there are virtually NO hotels in Alabama or NW Florida with any vacancies. :oops:


You know, no matter where it hits along the entire gulf coast, even the western gulf, there's going to be hardly anywhere to evacuate to. Every hotel and shelter for at least a thousand miles of where I am is likely full right now...
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#172 Postby carve » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:58 am

Are we looking at this possibly going into th GOM?That would not be good at all..
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#173 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:05 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.



A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW..IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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#174 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:13 am

How long is it expected to remain over water? 2 days?
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#175 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:15 am

05/1145 UTC 25.3N 78.7W T1.0/1.0 94 -- Atlantic Ocean
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#176 Postby spinfan4eva » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:15 am

This may sound heartless but I dont know what else to say, If this forms and does as the 00z GFDL says, at this point, that track may be the best case scenario with everyone evacuated from NOLA and surrounding areas and already catestrophic damage. Why should a hurricane strike fresh territory causing new damage and force the evacuees to run again? What if it hit the houston area now with the evacuees in the Astrodome?
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#177 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:17 am

GFDL predicts a small swath of tropical storm force winds crossing FL and
passing right over Tampa Bay. Gonna be a windy week if that pans out

Good news is it might be ripped apart by the time it reaches GOM.So it would be unlikely to intensify rapidly if it does reach GOM.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#178 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:17 am

Image
What 94L is showing on radar.
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#179 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:18 am

Looks like some heavy bands of rain with this system developing.
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#180 Postby NastyCat4 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:19 am

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