Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

vaffie · #161 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:22 pm

superfly wrote:The convection is to the SE of the center, not over it. No rapid intensification until the center is covered.

With that level, organization and continuation of convection, it is almost guaranteed that the center has reformed underneath it, regardless. It could have dropped 15-20 mb or more in the last three hours.

mtm4319 · #162 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:33 pm

03/1745 UTC 20.3N 92.4W T2.5/2.5 STAN

Dvorak indicating 35 kts, up from 30 kts at 1145 UTC.

#163 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM STAN (AL202005) ON 20051003 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051003 1800 051004 0600 051004 1800 051005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 92.1W 20.0N 93.8W 19.7N 95.7W 19.4N 97.8W
BAMM 20.1N 92.1W 20.1N 93.8W 19.8N 95.6W 19.5N 97.5W
A98E 20.1N 92.1W 19.8N 93.0W 19.6N 94.2W 19.3N 95.4W
LBAR 20.1N 92.1W 20.1N 93.5W 20.3N 95.3W 21.2N 97.1W
SHIP 50KTS 63KTS 74KTS 84KTS
DSHP 50KTS 63KTS 74KTS 84KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051005 1800 051006 1800 051007 1800 051008 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 100.1W 19.5N 104.3W 20.2N 108.0W 21.0N 111.0W
BAMM 19.3N 99.3W 19.4N 102.2W 20.3N 105.0W 22.3N 108.3W
A98E 18.8N 96.8W 19.2N 100.5W 19.8N 104.3W 21.8N 106.3W
LBAR 22.0N 98.7W 24.2N 100.3W 25.0N 101.3W 25.8N 100.7W
SHIP 92KTS 102KTS 103KTS 98KTS
DSHP 92KTS 48KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 92.1W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.5N LONM12 = 91.0W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 20.4N LONM24 = 88.9W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

vaffie · #164 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:51 pm

Check this out! A bunch of the model runs of the GFS actually have it now heading east or northeast now for the first time.

superfly · #165 Postby **superfly** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 1:58 pm

vaffie wrote:
superfly wrote:The convection is to the SE of the center, not over it. No rapid intensification until the center is covered.

With that level, organization and continuation of convection, it is almost guaranteed that the center has reformed underneath it, regardless. It could have dropped 15-20 mb or more in the last three hours.

The center doesn't just reform in tropical storms. Pressure is 999mb.

Derek Ortt · #166 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:00 pm

can someone tell me just what in the world the 50KT initialization is based off of?

Anonymous · #167 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:can someone tell me just what in the world the 50KT initialization is based off of?

Well...winds can only be 55 mph/95 mph/130 mph/170 mph on intermediate advisories...so winds will either be 50 mph or 60 mph at 5pm.

Derek Ortt · #168 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:04 pm

winds cna be 130 anytime. 115KT has applied to both many times

but 50KT is so far above the real intensity that it is laughable, unless recon actually at least finds that this ia a tropical storm and quickly

#169 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:20 pm

vaffie wrote:Check this out! A bunch of the model runs of the GFS actually have it now heading east or northeast now for the first time.

You cannot even consider those runs. There are numerous runs of the GFS and some of those will always give laughable results. When the control GFS or the complete ensemble starts doing it...then take notice.

#170 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:23 pm

AFM:

The software I'm using is showing model AF1I looping Stan back into the gulf. My cheat sheet says AF1I is the Air Force MM5 Interpolated model. Is this the real MM5? Is this a model that one should consider?

#171 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:37 pm

skysummit wrote:AFM:

The software I'm using is showing model AF1I looping Stan back into the gulf. My cheat sheet says AF1I is the Air Force MM5 Interpolated model. Is this the real MM5? Is this a model that one should consider?

Yes this is the AF MM5...and it ain't worth a flip when it comes to tropical. That model was developed to provide the Air Force community with nice meteograms...showing clouds and precip. It is not made with the tropics in mind. Don't use it for steering a tropical system...given the choice b/w the NAM and the AF MM5...I'd choose the NAM on steering tropical systems. That should tell you exactly what I think of the AF MM5. :lol:

It produces really good meteograms that are real useful for short term forecasting (the writing of TAFs)...like cloud layers...turbc...icing..etc....but that's about it.

#172 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:39 pm

Wow...the NAM over the MM5 heh? Hehehe...thanks AFM.

Derek Ortt · #173 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:41 pm

the only MM5 that is worth anything in the tropics is the one run at UM, since we run it at very hgih res

it has not been run on stan since RAINEX is over, and its no Florida threat

#174 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 2:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the only MM5 that is worth anything in the tropics is the one run at UM, since we run it at very hgih res

it has not been run on stan since RAINEX is over, and its no Florida threat

Exactly...you can throw the AF run out with the trash when it comes to tropical cyclones.

Anonymous · #175 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:44 pm

As I expected...now increased to 60 mph...getting close to having Hurricane Stan.

mtm4319 · #176 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:46 pm

I do wonder what they're basing this 50 kt/60 mph on. The satellite loops look good, but the last Dvorak estimate was 35 kt, and the max flight level wind observed was 41 kt.

Website · #177 Postby **Brent** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:50 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:As I expected...now increased to 60 mph...getting close to having Hurricane Stan.

...and where exactly are the 60 mph winds?

Anonymous · #178 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:50 pm

Dropsondes in the SE Quad recorded 50 kt surface winds.

mtm4319 · #179 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 3:52 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Dropsondes in the SE Quad recorded 50 kt surface winds.

It figures... I have no idea how to read those things. :wink:

#180 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:00 pm

mtm4319 wrote:I do wonder what they're basing this 50 kt/60 mph on. The satellite loops look good, but the last Dvorak estimate was 35 kt, and the max flight level wind observed was 41 kt.

In the discussion you will find out why they increased the winds.

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