22,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[webke]

I have a question, Does it look like the ULL that was south of STD22 is trying to catch up with it and merge.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

Current Intensity Analysis

                     UW - CIMSS                     
          ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                AODT - Version 6.4.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  09 OCT 2005    Time :   231500 UTC
      Lat :   30:33:00 N     Lon :   67:16:36 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.2 /1007.4mb/ 32.0kt

     
     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

      6hr-Avg T#  3hr-Avg T#   Adj T#   Raw T#
         1.7         1.6        1.4      1.2

 Eye Temp : +19.4C       Cloud Region Temp :  17.4C

 Scene Type : SHEAR (1.13^ TO DG)

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : WEAKEN

[WindRunner]

Just curious, where are you getting these from, senorpepr?

[senorpepr]

Just curious, where are you getting these from, senorpepr?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/

[WindRunner]

, I missed the UW-CIMSS header at the top there. Thanks.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC reminds very tight/defined. In if it can get away from the ULL. It could develop quickly.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[nequad]

The LLC is well defined, however it is running right into the stalled frontal boundary, and SSTS are marginal at best. I am curious to see though if the circualtion makes it to the NC coast. As it is now it's moving right toward the OBX.

[oceanguync]

it looks like some stroms are trying to form around what is left of the circulation--does anytone think it could refire in the next 12-24 hours??It has shown some in the past few hours.

[Thunder44]

From the 5:30pm TWO:

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO
IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA. SOME MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND NEARBY SHIPS INDICATE WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD AT 20 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHFSAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

[Thunder44]

702
WHXX01 KWBC 102148
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO (AL222005) ON 20051010 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051010 1800 051011 0600 051011 1800 051012 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.4N 69.9W 34.3N 71.5W 35.3N 72.0W 35.6N 71.8W
BAMM 33.4N 69.9W 34.8N 71.8W 36.2N 72.4W 36.9N 72.6W
A98E 33.4N 69.9W 35.0N 71.9W 35.6N 72.3W 36.0N 71.6W
LBAR 33.4N 69.9W 35.2N 71.3W 36.9N 71.7W 38.6N 71.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 37KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 37KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051012 1800 051013 1800 051014 1800 051015 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.1N 71.6W 33.0N 71.9W 30.5N 71.9W 31.3N 68.4W
BAMM 37.1N 73.0W 37.0N 73.6W 38.3N 73.3W 43.2N 71.5W
A98E 35.8N 70.6W 36.0N 70.8W 35.6N 70.7W 41.0N 67.1W
LBAR 39.5N 71.0W 40.8N 68.7W 39.4N 65.4W 38.5N 56.3W
SHIP 38KTS 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.4N LONCUR = 69.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 31.5N LONM12 = 67.5W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 29.8N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WindRunner]

00Z models still initializing at 30kts and at 1008mb. Just a note, the NHC was issuing advisories when it had this strength.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO (AL222005) ON 20051011 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051011 0000 051011 1200 051012 0000 051012 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.3N 71.0W 35.4N 72.1W 36.4N 72.2W 36.6N 71.6W
BAMM 34.3N 71.0W 35.9N 72.3W 37.1N 72.3W 37.8N 72.3W
A98E 34.3N 71.0W 36.0N 72.7W 36.8N 72.4W 37.8N 70.9W
LBAR 34.3N 71.0W 36.4N 71.9W 38.2N 71.8W 39.8N 70.9W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 34KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051013 0000 051014 0000 051015 0000 051016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.1N 71.4W 34.5N 71.0W 32.6N 70.6W 35.0N 65.0W
BAMM 38.1N 72.6W 39.2N 72.0W 42.4N 68.2W 48.6N 62.9W
A98E 37.8N 69.6W 39.1N 68.0W 41.6N 64.5W 45.6N 55.4W
LBAR 40.7N 70.1W 41.7N 67.3W 40.8N 61.8W 38.9N 52.9W
SHIP 31KTS 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 31KTS 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.3N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 68.8W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 30.6N LONM24 = 66.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has a well defined LLC...In has ship reports of 30 to 35 mph surface winds. But they went to see convection form over the center.

[senorpepr]

The 1030pm TWO has 530pm at the top on accident (look for ABNT20 KNHC 110250)

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO
IS CENTERED ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
WARMER GULFSTREAM. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OR
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... WHICH WOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO
BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHFSAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting, if things coincide, we may have Wilma and Alpha in the next days or so.

[HURAKAN]

DO I HEAR THE NAMES "WILMA" AND "ALPHA"

SCREAM LOUDER!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Burst of convection near center. Come on become Wilma...So the other system can become Alpha!

[fasterdisaster]

GO WILMA!!!!

YABBA-DABBA-DOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

COME ON WILMA... IT'S YOUR BIRTHDAY.



GO GO GO!